2023-10-02-莱坊-Gold_Coast_Prime_Residential_Insight_Q3_2023_3页_818kb

报告摘要

Gold Coast Prime Residential Insight Summary (Q3 2023)

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of the Gold Coast prime luxury residential market in Q3 2023, focusing on sales, rental trends, economic conditions, and lending environment. It highlights the dynamics of the wealth trends in Australia, particularly the growth of the high-net-worth (HNWI) and ultra-high-net-worth (UHNW) populations, and how these influence the real estate market.

Wealth Trends

HNWI Growth: Australia's HNWI population increased by 4.8% in 2022, reaching 2,214,326 individuals with net wealth over US$1 million.
HNWI Distribution:
- The four major capital cities (Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth) accounted for 59.8% of the HNWI population.
- The share of HNWI outside these cities is expected to rise to 42.6% by 2027, up from 40.2% currently.
UHNW Growth:
- The UHNW population (wealth over US$30 million) grew by 2.1% in 2022, totaling 17,456 individuals.
- Since 2017, the UHNW population has grown by 31.1%.
- It is projected to grow by 40.9% over the next five years, faster than the global UHNW growth rate of 28.5%.
- The share of UHNW individuals outside the four major cities is expected to increase from 32.7% to 37.2% by 2027.

Economic Trends

Queensland Growth: Recorded 4.4% economic growth in 2022.
Gold Coast Unemployment: At 4.0% in March 2023, down by 80 bps from the previous year.
Economic Forecast:
- 2023: Growth is expected to decline to 1.5%.
- 2024: Growth is projected at 3.5%.
- 2025: Growth is forecast at 3.3%.
Stock Market Performance:
- The S&P/ASX 200 rose by 0.4% in Q2 2023, resulting in a 9.7% increase over the past year.
- Forecast for 2023: 2.8% increase.
- Forecast for 2024: 2.8% increase.
- Forecast for 2025: 4.8% increase.
Company Profits:
- Grew by 19.3% in 2022, following 5.3% growth in 2021.
- Forecast to fall by 0.5% in 2023, 5.8% in 2024, and then recover by 2.3% in 2025.
Private Business Investment:
- Grew by 8.0% in the year to June 2023, up from 7.1% in the previous quarter and 2.2% a year earlier.

Lending Environment

Official Cash Rate: Remained at 4.10% as of 5 September 2023, with forecasts of a slight reduction to 4.07% by the end of 2024.
Mortgage Rates:
- Owner Occupiers: Average mortgage lending rates for a 3-year fixed term rose to 6.32%, while standard variable loans increased to 8.52%.
- Investors: 3-year fixed term rates rose to 6.50%, and standard variable loans increased to 9.10%.

Gold Coast Prime Residential Market

Sales & Price Performance

Sales Volume:
- June 2023: 226 prime residential homes sold, up 5.1% compared to the previous quarter.
- Annual Sales Volume: 929 homes sold, down 22% compared to a year ago.
Price Performance:
- Year to June 2023: Prime residential prices increased by 1.5%.
- Past Quarter: Prices rose by 1.6%.
- Forecast:
  - 2023: 3% increase.
  - 2024: 4% increase.
  - 2025: 5% increase.
  - 3-Year Average (2023–2025): 4% increase.

Rental Market

Rental Growth:
- Quarter to June 2023: Rents rose by 3.7%.
- Annual Growth: Rents increased by 18.4% over the past year.
Gross Rental Yields:
- Increased by 8 bps to 4.07% in Q2 2023.
Rental Forecast:
- 2023: 21% growth.
- 2024: 14% growth.
- 2025: 9% growth.
- 3-Year Average (2023–2025): 15% growth.

Key Drivers of Forecast

Factor	2021	2022	2023f	2024f	2025f	2023–2025 AVE
Economic Growth	6.1%	3.2%	1.5%	3.5%	3.3%	2.8%
Unemployment Rate	5.1%	3.7%	3.7%	4.3%	4.3%	4.1%
Cash Rate Target	0.1%	1.2%	3.8%	3.9%	2.9%	3.6%
Stock Market	17.5%	-1.7%	2.8%	2.8%	4.8%	3.5%
Company Profits	5.3%	19.3%	-0.5%	-5.8%	2.3%	-1.3%
Prime Price Performance	17%	4%	3%	4%	5%	4%
Prime Rental Market	14%	19%	21%	14%	9%	15%

Key Takeaways

The Gold Coast is experiencing strong rental growth and remains a top location for prime rental yields.
Sales volume has declined annually, but there is an uptick in quarterly sales.
HNWI and UHNW populations are growing, with a notable shift towards regional areas.
Economic and market forecasts indicate a slower growth trajectory in 2023, followed by a moderate recovery in subsequent years.
Lending rates are on the rise, particularly for investors, which could impact future market activity.