2024-02-02-莱坊-Gold_Coast_Prime_Residential_Insight_Q4_2023_3页_792kb

报告摘要

Gold Coast Prime Residential Insight Summary (Q4 2023)

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of the Gold Coast prime luxury residential market, highlighting trends in sales, prices, and rental performance, alongside broader economic and wealth trends in Australia. It also outlines forecasts for the next few years, emphasizing the region's appeal to ultra-wealthy individuals and the evolving lending environment.

Wealth Trends

HNWI Population Growth: Australia's high-net-worth individual (HNWI) population grew by 4.8% in 2022, reaching 2,214,326 individuals with net wealth exceeding US$1 million.
HNWI Distribution: The HNWI population in the four major capital cities (Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth) accounts for 59.8% of the total Australian HNWI population, a proportion similar to five years ago.
UHNWI Population Growth: The ultra-high-net-worth (UHNW) population in Australia increased by 2.1% in 2022, totaling 17,456 individuals with net wealth over US$30 million.
UHNWI Growth Projections: The UHNW population is expected to grow by 40.9% over the next five years, outpacing global UHNW growth of 28.5%.
Geographic Shift: The share of UHNW individuals outside the four major cities is projected to rise from 32.7% to 37.2% by 2027.

Economic Trends

QLD Economic Growth: Queensland's economy grew by 3.3% in 2022, with forecasts of 3.0% in 2023, 2.6% in 2024, and 3.2% in 2025.
Gold Coast Unemployment: The Gold Coast LGA unemployment rate was 4.0% in September 2023, a 240 bps decrease from the previous year.
Stock Market Performance: The S&P/ASX 200 fell by 1.9% in Q3 2023, with a total annual decline of 8.8%. Forecasts suggest a 2.2% increase by the end of 2023, 1.0% in 2024, and 6.0% in 2025.
Company Profits: Company profits fell by 19.3% in 2022 after a 5.3% increase in 2021. Annual profits are forecast to fall by 0.3% in 2023, 4.2% in 2024, and then rise by 1.7% in 2025.
Private Business Investment: New private business investment grew by 8.0% in the year to September 2023, up from 6.8% a year earlier.

Lending Environment

Official Cash Rate: The Reserve Bank of Australia set the official cash rate at 4.35% in December 2023, up from 3.10% a year earlier. Oxford Economics forecasts it to average 3.85% by the end of 2025.
Mortgage Rates: Average mortgage lending rates for owner occupiers increased by 51 bps to 6.56% for a 3-year fixed term and 175 bps to 8.52% for a standard variable loan.
Investor Rates: For investors, 3-year fixed term rates rose by 64 bps to 6.65%, and standard variable loan rates increased by 175 bps to 9.10%.

Gold Coast Prime Residential Performance

Sales Volume: Sales volume in the September 2023 quarter was 10% higher than the previous quarter, with 249 prime residential homes sold. However, the annual sales volume was 22% lower than the previous year.
Price Growth: Prime residential property prices on the Gold Coast rose by 3.9% in the year to September 2023, and 0.8% in the last quarter.
Price Forecast: Knight Frank Research forecasts prime residential prices to increase by 3% in 2023, 4% in 2024, and 6% in 2025.
Rental Growth: Prime residential rents on the Gold Coast increased by 16.3% annually in September 2023, with a 2.2% rise in the last quarter.
Rental Yield: Gross rental yields rose by 41 bps in the year ending September 2023, averaging 4.12%.
Rental Forecast: Prime rents are expected to grow by 21% in 2023, 14% in 2024, and 9% in 2025.

Key Drivers Forecast (2023f–2025f)

Metric	2021	2022	2023f	2024f	2025f	Average 2023f–2025f
QLD Economic Growth	6.1%	3.3%	3.0%	2.6%	3.2%	2.9%
Unemployment Rate	5.1%	3.7%	3.7%	4.3%	4.3%	4.1%
Cash Rate Target	0.1%	1.2%	3.9%	4.6%	3.9%	4.1%
Stock Market	18%	-2%	2%	1%	6%	3%
Company Profits	5%	19%	0%	-4%	2%	-1%

Gold Coast Prime Residential Forecast

Metric	2021	2022	2023f	2024f	2025f	Average 2023f–2025f
Price Performance	17%	4%	3%	4%	6%	4%
Rental Market	14%	19%	21%	14%	9%	15%

Summary of Key Points

Sales: Prime luxury home sales on the Gold Coast have seen a short pause but are on the rise again, with a 10% increase in the September 2023 quarter.
Prices: Prime residential property values have grown by 3.9% annually, with a forecast of continued price appreciation.
Rental Market: Rental growth has been strong, with a 16.3% annual increase, and gross rental yields have improved.
Economic Outlook: Queensland's economy is expected to continue moderate growth, while the national stock market and company profits show mixed performance.
Wealth Trends: The HNWI and UHNW populations are expanding, with a notable shift in wealth distribution outside the major cities.
Lending Conditions: Mortgage rates have risen significantly, impacting both owner occupiers and investors.

Contact Information

Michelle Ciesielski – Residential Research
Email: michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +612 9036 6659
Blake Goddard – Residential Site Sales
Email: blake.goddard@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +614 0760 4307
Sally Edvardsen – Franchise Partnerships
Email: sally.edvardsen@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +612 9036 6845
Alison Hedge – Residential Project Sales
Email: alison.hedger@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +614 2078 8471
Erin van Tuil – Residential
Email: erin.vantuil@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +614 0932 5700
Chris Hill – Valuations
Email: chris.hill@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +614 3880 7249