20230806-华安证券-食品饮料行业周报_把握政策催化下的顺周期白酒板块_19页_1mb

报告摘要

Report Summary

Market Performance

The food and beverage industry index fell by 0.31% last week, ranking 21st among Shihwan primary sub-industries. It underperformed the Shanghai Composite by 0.68 percentage points and the CSI 300 by 1.01 percentage points. Sub-sectors included diverse results, with baking food up 1.10%, meat products up 0.85%, snacks up 0.43%, and other alcoholic beverages up 0.38%, while beer declined by 0.44%.

Key Analysis

This analysis uses actuarial adjustments to revise estimates of core wine-drinking population decline. It concludes that traditional methods overestimate the reduction, suggesting approximately 380,000 people less in the decline for the 2017-2025 period due to higher survival rates among older generations. The adjustment accounts for mortality rates and birth cohort changes, resulting in a less severe projected decline.

Investment Recommendations

Beer: Focus on structural upgrades despite temporary sales dips from factors like weather and base effects. Recommended: Qingdao Beer, China Resources Beer. Target: Companies enhancing profitability through cost reductions.
Halal Snacks: Anticipate raw material price relief leading to earnings boosts. Long-term focus on leaders with strong supply chains and management strategies, e.g., Malixiang Food.
Snack Foods: Prioritize brands benefiting from channel shifts and innovation in emerging markets, such as Yanzijuzi Food, Gan yuan Food, and Qiaojia Food.
Condiments: Watch for seasonal and organic growth in categories like Tianwei Food, and stabilize in调味品 firms facing cost pressures, e.g., Zhongjing Food and Zhongju High New.
Dairy Products: Notable weakness in cow prices, but forecasts for demand recovery in下半年. Recommended: Inner Mongolia Yili for strong regional demand and focus on premium products.
Beverage Sector: The policy boost towards household wealth through stocks and funds aims to support alcohol stocks. Prioritize strong brands like Gusheng, Moutai for short-term recovery, along with Wu Liangye and severe减持 opportunities.白酒板块 shows benefits from cyclical trends.