20141107-新鸿基金融集团-Investment_Daily_Note_11页_1mb

Investment Daily Note Summary - 7 November 2014

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed summary of the Hong Kong and global markets on 7 November 2014, highlighting stock performance, market indices, economic data, and key investment insights.

Main Market Movements

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Rose by 69 points to close at 17,554, driven by decent U.S. jobs data.
• S&P 500: Closed at 2,031, up 7 points.
• NASDAQ: Closed at 4,638, up 17 points.
• Hang Seng Index (HSI): Hovered around its 10-day moving average (MA), closing at 23,649.
• HSCEI (Hang Seng China Enterprises Index): Fell below its 10-day MA, closing at 10,568.
• New York crude oil futures: Declined by $0.77 to $77.91/bbl due to OPEC's demand forecasts and a strong dollar.
• Gold prices: Remained depressed, with New York gold futures settling at $1,142.60/oz, down $3.10.

Key Stock Performances

• Conch Venture (586.HK):
  • Last: HK$16.28
  • Target: HK$17.50
  • Stop-loss: HK$14.70
  • Reason: Benefiting from China's "making progress while maintaining stability" measures and cheaper than peers.
• HKTV (1137.HK):
  • Up 4.77% due to its TV programmes being aired on Tencent (700.HK) drama channels.
• Huaneng Power (902.HK):
  • Down 4.9% after raising HK$3.1bn through share placements.
• China Comm Cons (1800.HK):
  • Up to 52-week highs, best gainer among HSCEI constituents.
• Lenovo (992.HK):
  • Declined 5.1% after earnings report, worst-performing HSI constituent.
• China Unicom (762.HK):
  • Announced increased subsidies on 4G mobile phones next year.
• Coolpad (2369.HK):
  • Up 3.7%.
• TCL Comm (2618.HK):
  • Up 2.8%.

Top Picks

• Yueshou Env (1191):
  • Last: HK$0.310
  • Target: HK$0.345
  • Stop-loss: HK$0.280
  • Reason: Stock price is rallying towards its highest in May.
• Sinotrans (598):
  • Last: HK$5.14
  • Target: HK$5.75
  • Stop-loss: HK$4.70
  • Reason: Parent transferred land in Guangzhou for a logistics centre.

Market Data Highlights

• HSI: Temporarily range-bound, with a closing price around its 10-day MA.
• HSCEI: Fell below its 10-day MA.
• Market Turnover:
  • HSI: HK$16.6bn
  • HSCCI: HK$5.1bn
  • HSCEI: HK$7.9bn
  • Main Board: HK$58.3bn
• Best Performers:
  • China Comm Cons (1800.HK): +2.9%
  • China Railway (390.HK): +2.4%
  • Franshion Properties (817.HK): +2.1%
  • BYD Company (1211.HK): +1.6%
  • China Mobile (941.HK): +1.4%
• Worst Performers:
  • Brilliance China (1114.HK): -5.3%
  • Lenovo Group (992.HK): -5.1%
  • Huaneng Power (902.HK): -4.9%
  • Sands China (1928.HK): -4.6%
  • Yanzhou Coal (1171.HK): -2.2%

Economic Data & Events

• U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls: October change was 235K, compared to prior 248K.
• U.S. Unemployment Rate: Remained at 5.9%.
• China Exports: YoY growth at 10.7%, below prior 15.3%.
• China Imports: YoY growth at 5.0%, below prior 7.0%.
• China PPI: YoY at -2.0%.
• China CPI: YoY at 1.6%.
• Japan Machine Tool Orders: YoY at --, compared to prior 34.7%.
• Japan Machine Orders: MoM at -1.3%, compared to prior 4.7%.
• Japan Industrial Production: MoM at --, compared to prior 2.7%.
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims: Data to be released on November 8.
• U.S. Retail Sales Advance: MoM at 0.3%, compared to prior 0.1%.
• U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications: Data to be released on November 7.
• Eurozone CPI: YoY at --, compared to prior 0.4%.
• Eurozone GDP SA: YoY at 0.7% for 3Q.
• U.K. ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths: Data to be released on November 7.
• U.S. Wholesale Inventories: MoM at 0.1%, compared to prior 0.7%.

Major Index Valuations

Major ETFs

Investment Insights

• Conch Venture (586.HK):
  • A good option for bargain-hunting due to its compelling valuation and exposure to the environmental-protection and cement sectors.
  • Revenue is mainly from residual heat power generation, vertical mills, and port logistics services.
  • Interim revenue increased by 12.3% YoY, and net profit surged by 88.1% YoY.
  • The company has secured 14 waste incineration projects and has HK$1.24bn in net cash.
  • Estimated P/E for the current year is ~9.7X, significantly lower than peers.
  • Technical analysis suggests a buy at HK$16.00 with a target of HK$17.50 and a stop-loss at HK$14.70.

Summary of Key Information

• The market is influenced by U.S. jobs data and the European Central Bank's accommodative monetary policy stance.
• Infrastructure stocks are showing strength due to increased government support.
• Conch Venture is a recommended buy due to its strong financial performance and potential in the environmental-protection sector.
• Key economic data and events are expected in the coming days, including U.S. and China reports.
• The Hang Seng Index and HSCEI show mixed performance, with HSI near its 10-day MA and HSCEI below it.
• The document includes a list of top picks and highlights companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential.
• Market data and ETF performance are presented for investor reference.