20150716-USDA-USD_ALivestock,_Dairy,_and_Poultry_Outlook（2015-7-16）_21页_733kb

报告摘要

Summary of Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook (July 16, 2015)

Core Content

The Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook report from the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) provides a detailed analysis of the U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry markets for the second quarter of 2015 and beyond. The report highlights the impacts of weather conditions, disease outbreaks, and market dynamics on production, prices, and trade flows across the industry.

Main Points

Red Meat and Poultry

Overall Production: Second-quarter red meat and poultry production was below earlier estimates due to lower beef and turkey production, which offset higher broiler and pork production.
Impact of HPAI: The Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreak significantly reduced turkey and table egg production, leading to higher prices for table eggs.
Broiler Production: Broiler production continued to expand, with revisions upward in forecasts for the second through fourth quarters of 2015 and the 2016 forecast.
Trade Decline: Poultry trade, including broiler, turkey, and egg exports, saw a significant decline in May due to HPAI-induced import bans in several countries.

Beef/Cattle

Pasture Conditions: Improved pasture conditions across the U.S. (except western regions) supported beef cow retention, leading to lower slaughter and higher dressed weights.
Slaughter Trends: Beef cow slaughter continued to decline year over year, while dairy cow slaughter slightly increased due to lower milk prices.
Feeder Cattle Prices: Feeder cattle prices remained strong, but fed cattle prices declined, leading to negative margins for cattle feeders.
Production Forecasts: Beef production for the second quarter was lower than expected, with third and fourth quarter forecasts revised upward.
Export and Import Trends: Beef exports declined in May due to high U.S. beef prices and a strong U.S. dollar, while beef imports increased due to higher demand for lean beef.

Pork/Hogs

Inventory and Productivity: Hog and pig inventory increased by 9 percent year over year, with productivity indicators reaching record highs.
Farrowing Intentions: Producers scaled back farrowing intentions, but farrowing numbers remained above pre-PEDv levels.
Production Forecast: Pork production for 2015 is expected to increase by 7.6 percent due to larger hog inventories and higher production.
Live Hog Imports: Live hog imports from Canada increased by 6.7 percent in May, driven by lower Canadian dollar and higher U.S. prices.
Price Trends: Pork prices are expected to reflect larger inventories, with live hog prices averaging $53-$55 per cwt in Q3 and $45-$49 per cwt in Q4.

Poultry

Broiler Production: Broiler meat production rose slightly in May due to higher average weights, but lower slaughter days led to a small increase.
Cold Storage: Cold storage holdings for broiler products increased significantly, leading to downward pressure on wholesale prices.
Table Egg Production: Table egg production dropped 7 percent in May due to HPAI outbreak and reduced layer numbers, especially in Iowa.
Hatching Egg Production: Hatching egg production increased by 4 percent in May, with forecast revisions upward for the second quarter, due to broiler industry expansion.
Egg Prices: Wholesale egg prices in the New York market rose sharply, up over 50 percent year over year, driven by lower production.

Dairy

Production Forecast: Milk production for 2015 is forecast at 208.8 billion pounds, with 2016 forecast revised downward to 213.6 billion pounds.
Export and Import Trends: Dairy exports increased on a skim-solids basis but decreased on a milk-fat basis, while dairy imports rose on both bases.
Prices: All-milk prices are forecast to decline to $17.05-$17.35 per cwt for 2015 and $17.00-$18.00 per cwt for 2016.

Key Information

Weather Impact: Abundant rainfall improved pasture conditions, supporting cattle retention and higher dressed weights, but also hampered wheat and hay harvests.
Disease Impact: HPAI outbreak significantly affected turkey and table egg production, leading to price increases and trade restrictions.
Market Dynamics: Negative margins for beef and pork producers, strong feeder cattle prices, and increased imports from Canada and Mexico are influencing production and trade decisions.
Trade Restrictions: Import bans by Russia, China, and South Korea reduced turkey and broiler exports, lowering demand and pressing prices downward.
Forecast Adjustments: Broiler production and cold storage increased, while turkey production and table egg production declined, leading to revisions in production forecasts.

Tables and Reports

Red Meat and Poultry and Dairy Forecast tables are scheduled for release on July 28, 2015.
Next Newsletter: Expected to be released on August 18, 2015.
Special Articles:
- "Effect of the Trans-Pacific Partnership on U.S. Dairy Trade"
- "Determinants of Japanese Demand for U.S. Pork Products in 2012"
- "U.S. Pork Production Rises on a Smaller Base of Breeding Animals"
- "Implications of the Trans-Pacific Partnership for Meat, Poultry, and Seafood Trade"