20150716-USDA-USDA_Livestock,_Dairy,_and_Poultry_Outlook（2015-07-16）_19页_657kb

报告摘要

Summary of Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook (LDP-M-252, June 16, 2015)

Core Content

The Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook report from June 16, 2015, provides an analysis of the U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry sectors, focusing on production, trade, and price trends influenced by the Highly-Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreaks in the Midwest and other factors such as market demand, exchange rates, and pasture conditions.

Main Points and Key Information

Poultry Industry

HPAI Outbreaks: Multiple outbreaks of HPAI since early 2015 have significantly impacted table egg layers and turkey production, especially in Iowa and Minnesota, which are leading producers.
Table Egg Production: April 2015 production was 593 million dozen, down 0.6% from the previous year. The 2015 forecast was lowered to 6.9 billion dozen, a 5.3% decline from 2014. However, 2016 production is expected to rise by 2.0% to 7.0 billion dozen.
Wholesale Prices: May 2015 wholesale prices for large eggs in the New York region averaged $1.69 per dozen, a 30% increase from 2014. The 2015 forecast for egg prices is $1.60 to $1.66 per dozen, and for 2016, it is $1.36 to $1.47 per dozen.
Hatching Egg Production: April 2015 hatching egg production was 91.5 million dozen, up 5% from April 2014. The 2015 forecast for hatching eggs is 1.1 billion dozen, up 4% from 2014.
Egg Exports: April 2015 egg and egg product exports rose 17% year-over-year, primarily due to increased exports to Mexico. The 2015 forecast for egg exports was reduced to 369 million dozen, while 2016 is forecast at 385 million dozen, a 4.3% increase.
Broiler Meat Production: Despite HPAI outbreaks, broiler production has not been significantly impacted. Broiler meat production for 2015 is forecast at 40.3 billion pounds, up 4.5% from 2014, and for 2016, at 41.2 billion pounds.
Cold Storage Holdings: Broiler cold storage holdings increased significantly in 2015, with 733 million pounds at the end of April, up 32% from the previous year. This increase is due to trade restrictions and higher domestic supply.
Wholesale Prices: Broiler prices in May 2015 were lower than in 2014, with leg quarters experiencing the largest decline (32% lower). Whole bird prices are forecast to decrease slightly in the fourth quarter of 2015 to $0.96 to $1.04 per pound.
Broiler Exports: April 2015 broiler exports were 573 million pounds, slightly higher than the previous year, due to increased shipments to Canada, Taiwan, Cuba, and Hong Kong, offsetting reduced exports to China and South Korea.
Turkey Production: Turkey production in April 2015 was 496 million pounds, up 5% from 2014, but the overall 2015 forecast is 5.6 billion pounds, a 3% decrease from 2014 due to HPAI outbreaks.
Turkey Exports: April 2015 turkey exports were 42.4 million pounds, down 27% from 2014, primarily due to Mexico and China's bans and partial trade restrictions from other countries.
Cold Storage Holdings for Turkey: Turkey cold storage holdings increased in April 2015, with whole bird stocks up 12% and leg meat up 81% from the previous year.
Turkey Prices: Prices for most turkey parts in April 2015 were below 2014 levels, with the largest declines in fresh drumsticks and fresh MDM. However, B/S breast meat saw a slight increase.

Beef/Cattle Industry

Pasture Conditions: Improved pasture conditions in the Plains States due to precipitation and timely rains in Texas and Oklahoma have led to higher forage availability, reducing the need for early slaughter.
Cattle Slaughter: Cattle slaughter in the first half of 2015 is expected to be down 6% from the first half of 2014, and heifer retention is expected to increase due to better pasture conditions.
Feeder Cattle Placements: April 2015 feeder cattle placements were 640,000 head, the lowest since 1996, as producers opted to extend grazing seasons.
Wholesale Prices: Despite strong demand, wholesale boxed-beef prices have moderated due to higher import volumes and heavier carcass weights. The choice cutout value dropped from $260/cwt in May to $250/cwt by June.
Beef Imports: Beef imports are expected to remain strong in 2015, with Australian beef being a major contributor. Annual 2015 beef imports are forecast at 3.3 billion pounds, while 2016 is expected to be 2.92 billion pounds, a 11.9% decline.
Beef Exports: April 2015 beef exports were 199.6 million pounds, down 3.6% from the previous year. However, there were signs of improved demand in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. Annual 2015 beef exports are projected at 2.46 billion pounds, down 4% from 2014, with a slight increase expected in 2016 to 2.51 billion pounds.

Dairy Industry

Milk Production: Dairy milk production is forecast to increase to 208.7 billion pounds in 2015 and 213.9 billion pounds in 2016.
Dairy Exports: Exports are forecast to be 38.7 billion pounds in 2015 and 39.5 billion pounds in 2016 on a milk-equivalent, skim-solids basis.
All-Milk Price: The all-milk price is expected to range from $17.15 to $17.55 per cwt in 2015 and $17.45 to $18.45 per cwt in 2016.

Key Trends and Outlook

HPAI Impact: The outbreaks have significantly affected egg and turkey production, leading to reduced supply, higher prices, and trade restrictions, especially in export markets.
Broiler Market: Increased domestic supply and trade bans have raised cold storage holdings and placed downward pressure on prices. However, export markets are expected to stabilize by the end of 2015.
Beef Market: Improved pasture conditions and low grain prices are supporting cattle retention and feeder cattle prices. Despite high prices, retail beef prices are expected to remain relatively high due to limited supply.
Pork Market: The recovery from PEDv has led to strong production in the second quarter, with exports rising due to low U.S. prices and favorable exchange rates in some markets.
Trade Dynamics: The U.S. dollar's strength has had a negative impact on export competitiveness, but low domestic prices have helped offset some of these effects.

Tables and Reports

WASDE Tables: Will be released on June 30, 2015.
Next Newsletter Release: July 16, 2015.
Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report: Will be released on June 26, 2015.
Special Articles: Include:
- "Effect of the Trans-Pacific Partnership on U.S. Dairy Trade" (November 2013 report)
- "Determinants of Japanese Demand for U.S. Pork Products in 2012" (May 2013 report)

Conclusion

The report highlights the complex interplay of animal health issues, market demand, trade policies, and weather conditions in shaping the U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry sectors. While HPAI has caused short-term disruptions in egg and turkey markets, the broiler industry is expected to see continued production and increased cold storage holdings. Beef and pork markets are also showing recovery and adaptation to changing conditions, with price pressures and export challenges playing a significant role in the outlook.