20220518-USDA-USDA_Livestock,_Dairy,_and_Poultry_Outlook_2022.5.18_36页_1mb

Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: May 2022 Summary

Core Content Overview

This report provides an outlook for the U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry sectors in 2022 and 2023, highlighting the impact of weather conditions, market dynamics, and supply-demand shifts on production, prices, and trade.

Key Highlights

Beef Production and Prices

• 2022 Production: Beef production increased to 27.8 billion pounds due to drought conditions that accelerated cattle placements and reduced marketings.
• 2023 Production: Expected to decline by 6.8% to 26.0 billion pounds due to tighter cattle supplies.
• Domestic Disappearance: Projected to drop nearly 7% in 2023 to 55.1 pounds per capita, the lowest since 2015.
• Cattle Prices: Expected to rise close to record highs in 2023, with the annual average feeder steer price projected at $198.00 per cwt, up 22% from 2022.
• Export Forecast: 2022 exports increased to 3.356 billion pounds, while 2023 exports are forecast to decrease by 13% to 2.930 billion pounds.

Pork Production and Prices

• 2023 Production: Forecast at 27.4 billion pounds, slightly above 2022 production.
• Live Equivalent Prices: Expected to average $71 per cwt in 2023, down 1% from 2022.
• Export Forecast: 2023 exports are projected to be 6.5 billion pounds, down 1% from 2022.

Poultry and Eggs

• Broiler Production: Revised upward for 2022 due to higher slaughter and hatchery data.
• Egg Production: Lowered in 2022 due to HPAI outbreaks, with 2022 table egg production at 7,688 million dozen eggs.
• Egg Prices: 2022 wholesale egg prices increased to 194 cents per dozen, while 2023 prices are expected to fall to 150 cents per pound.
• 2023 Forecasts: Total egg production is expected to rise by 5.5%, exports by 13.8%, and imports to decrease by 36.8%.

Lamb and Sheep Production

• 2022 Production: Actual production for Q1 2022 was 33 million pounds, higher than the April forecast.
• 2023 Production: Forecast to decrease by 6 million pounds to 130 million pounds due to continued drought and poor pasture conditions.
• Lamb Prices: Expected to rise in 2023 to $224 per cwt, about $4 higher than 2022.
• Import Forecasts: 2022 lamb and mutton imports were 88 million pounds, with the second quarter forecast lowered to 85 million pounds.

Dairy Sector

• 2022 Milk Production: Projected at 226.7 billion pounds, up 0.4 billion pounds from the previous forecast.
• 2023 Milk Production: Estimated at 229.4 billion pounds, up 1.2% from 2022.
• All-Milk Price Forecast: Adjusted down to $23.55 per cwt for 2023, down $2.20 from 2022.
• Wholesale Prices: Cheddar cheese and butter prices increased in 2022, while dry whey and NDM prices decreased.
• International Export Prices: Most increased from February to March, giving U.S. producers a competitive edge.
• Imports: March imports rose to 535 million pounds on a milk-fat basis, with Brazil and Canada as the top suppliers.

Feed Prices

• Corn Prices: Projected at $5.90 per bushel for 2021/22 and $6.75 per bushel for 2022/23.
• Soybean Meal: Forecast at $420 per short ton for 2021/22 and $400 per short ton for 2022/23.
• Alfalfa Hay: March prices at $221 per short ton, up $7 from February and $44 from March 2021.

Infant Formula Shortage

• A major infant formula manufacturer recalled certain products, leading to a shortage.
• USDA is encouraging states to use WIC program flexibilities to help families access safe formula.
• Demand for lactose and whey protein concentrate (WPC) for infant formula remains strong, but supplies are tight.

Main Viewpoints

• Drought Impact: Drought has significantly affected cattle, sheep, and dairy sectors, leading to reduced supplies and higher prices.
• Market Shifts: Trade patterns have changed due to HPAI outbreaks, import restrictions, and economic recovery.
• Price Trends: Prices for beef, lamb, and dairy products are expected to rise in 2023, driven by supply constraints.
• Production Declines: Continued declines in production for beef, lamb, and dairy are anticipated due to lower cattle inventories and poor grazing conditions.
• Export and Import Forecasts: U.S. beef exports are expected to slow in 2023, while imports are likely to remain high due to tariff changes and supply dynamics.

Key Information

• Inflation Trends: April 2022 saw record-high retail animal product prices, with poultry up 15.3% and eggs up 22.6%.
• Cattle On-Feed Numbers: April 1, 2022, cattle-on-feed reached a record of 12.1 million head.
• Beef Cattle Slaughter: 2022 saw increased slaughter of cows and bulls, offsetting lower fed cattle slaughter.
• Dairy Supply and Use: March 2022 dairy exports were strong, with butter reaching a record high. Domestic use of cheese, WPC, and lactose increased, while butter and skim milk products declined.
• HPAI Impact: The outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza affected egg and poultry production, leading to revised forecasts and price changes.

Conclusion

The U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry sectors face challenges in 2023 due to ongoing drought, supply constraints, and shifting trade dynamics. While production levels are expected to decline in some areas, prices are projected to rise, especially for beef and lamb. The infant formula shortage has also impacted the dairy market, increasing demand for specific products and affecting trade flows. Overall, the outlook suggests a period of higher prices and reduced supply, with implications for both domestic consumption and international trade.