20150518-USDA-USDA_Livestock,_Dairy,_and_Poultry_Outlook（2015-05-18）_21页_426kb

Summary of Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook (LDP-M-251, May 18, 2015)

Core Content

This report provides an outlook for the U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry sectors as of May 2015, highlighting current conditions, market trends, and future projections. It includes updates on production, trade, prices, and key factors influencing the industry.

Key Sectors Overview

Beef/Cattle

• Forage Conditions: Recent rains in cattle country have improved short-term forage conditions, particularly in the Southern Plains. However, subsoil moisture remains a concern.
• Slaughter Mix: Fewer heifers and cows, and more steers, are expected in the slaughter mix, leading to heavier dressed weights and potentially offsetting the decline in slaughter numbers.
• Production: First-quarter commercial cow slaughter was 6% below the previous year, and veal production was 21% lower in March 2015 than in March 2014.
• Feedlot Trends: U.S. feedlots had 10.8 million head on April 1, 2015, with steers increasing by 5% and heifers decreasing by 10%. Placement weights have been rising since August 2014.
• Wholesale Prices: The choice cutout value declined slightly in late April, and weekly slaughter numbers have increased, contributing to lower wholesale beef prices.
• Trade: Beef exports in 2015 are forecast at 2.461 billion pounds, a 4% decrease from 2014. Imports are expected to rise to 3.116 billion pounds for CY 2015.
• Export Trends: Exports to Japan and Canada showed moderate improvement in March, while exports to Mexico and Hong Kong remained weak.

Pork/Hogs

• Production: Commercial pork production in 2016 is expected to rise by about 1%, driven by increased breeding inventory from 2014.
• Prices: Hog prices are forecast to average $44-$48 per cwt in 2016, 5.4% below 2015 prices. Live equivalent lean hog prices in the first quarter were $45-$49 per cwt.
• Trade: Pork exports in March 2015 were 440 million pounds, 9% below the previous year, with Japan and Asia being major affected regions. Exports to Mexico and Canada showed growth.
• Export Outlook: 2016 pork exports are projected at 5.125 billion pounds, 5.3% above 2015, due to increased supply and lower prices.

Poultry

• Production: Broiler meat production in March 2015 was 9.1% higher than the previous year, with 3.4 billion pounds produced. Turkey meat production was 7.2% higher than a year earlier.
• Cold Storage: Cold storage holdings for broiler meat increased by 27.6% in March, mainly due to leg quarters and breast meat.
• Trade: Broiler exports in March 2015 were 4.1% lower than the previous year, but higher than expected due to HPAI-related trade restrictions. Exports to Asia, especially Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Vietnam, saw significant growth.
• Egg Production: Table egg production in March was 0.9% higher than the previous year, while hatching egg production was 3% higher. HPAI outbreaks in Iowa affected table-egg laying flocks.
• Egg Trade: Egg exports in March were 21.2% higher than the previous year, with significant increases in shipments to Mexico and Canada.

Dairy

• Milk Production: 2015 milk production is forecast at 208.6 billion pounds, 1.3% higher than 2014. However, it is 1.4 billion pounds less than previously forecast.
• Prices: All-milk prices for 2015 are expected to range from $17.10 to $17.60 per cwt. For 2016, the forecast is $17.45 to $18.45 per cwt.
• Exports: Dairy product exports in March 2015 were higher than expected, with NDM, lactose, and cheese leading the increase. Exports to Mexico rose significantly.
• Feed Prices: Feed prices for the 2014/15 marketing year are relatively low, with corn at $3.55-$3.75 per bushel and soybean meal at $365 per short ton. For 2015/16, prices are expected to be lower: corn at $3.20-$3.80 per bushel and soybean meal at $305-$345 per short ton.

Main Points and Trends

• Forage Conditions: Improved by recent rains, but not enough to fully alleviate drought impacts.
• Slaughter Mix: Steers are becoming a larger proportion of the slaughter mix, contributing to heavier dressed weights.
• Beef Trade: Exports remain sluggish due to high domestic prices and a strong dollar, while imports have increased significantly.
• Pork Production: Expected to rise in 2016 due to expanded breeding inventories and improved conditions.
• Poultry Production: Broiler and turkey production have seen growth in the first quarter of 2015, with increased cold storage holdings.
• Poultry Trade: Broiler exports to Mexico and Canada increased, despite HPAI-related bans and a strong dollar.
• Dairy Production: Milk production is forecast to rise in 2016 due to lower feed prices and higher milk prices.
• Dairy Trade: Exports to Mexico and other markets increased in March, but trade restrictions in China and Korea remain a challenge.

Key Information and Projections

• Beef Production: Expected to be 5% below 2015 levels in 2016, but with heavier dressed weights, the decline may be less severe.
• Pork Production: Projected to increase by 1% in 2016, with prices expected to be 5.4% lower than in 2015.
• Poultry Production: Broiler meat production for 2015 is forecast at 40.2 billion pounds, 4% higher than 2014. Turkey meat production is expected to rise to 5.979 billion pounds.
• Dairy Production: 2015 milk production is forecast at 208.6 billion pounds, with 2016 projected at 213.6 billion pounds.
• Feed Prices: Projected to decline in 2015/16, which could help offset the impact of the strong dollar on exports.

Outlook and Implications

• Market Dynamics: The strong U.S. dollar continues to challenge exports, but lower domestic prices and increased supply may help.
• Trade Restrictions: HPAI-related bans and Chinese trade restrictions have impacted poultry exports, but some markets show signs of recovery.
• Consumer Impact: Lower pork and poultry prices may benefit domestic consumers and increase export volumes.
• Dairy Prices: Price fluctuations are influenced by supply and demand, with some commodities showing declines and others increases.

Additional Notes

• Reports and Data: The next newsletter release is scheduled for June 16, 2015. Tables will be released on May 29, 2015.
• Special Articles: Several special articles are referenced, including the impact of the Trans-Pacific Partnership on the U.S. dairy trade and the determinants of Japanese demand for U.S. pork.
• Contacts: Kenneth Mathews and Mildred Haley are the authors of this report.