20220215-USDA-USDA_Livestock,_Dairy,_and_Poultry_Outlook_2022.2.15_38页_1mb

Summary of Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: February 2022

Core Content Overview

This report provides an outlook on the U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry markets for 2022, based on data from the USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) and National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). It includes updates on production, prices, imports, and exports for beef, pork, poultry, lamb, and dairy products, as well as a special article on state-level animal welfare policies for pork production.

Key Market Trends

Beef

• Production: Forecast for 2022 commercial beef production was raised by 210 million pounds to 27.375 billion pounds due to higher fed cattle slaughter and heavier carcass weights.
• Prices:
  • The average price for all grades of live steers in the 5-area marketing region was $137.27 per cwt in January 2022, up 24% from the previous year.
  • Fed steer prices for the week ending February 6 were $139.76 per cwt, up 23% from the same period in 2021.
  • Annual fed steer price forecast was raised to $137.50 per cwt.
  • Feeder steer prices increased by $1.25 annually to $161.25 per cwt.
• Exports:
  • U.S. beef exports set a record in December at 288 million pounds, with a total of 3.447 billion pounds for 2021, up 17% from 2020.
  • 2022 export forecast was reduced to 3.270 billion pounds due to increased exportable supplies from Oceania and South America.
• Imports:
  • December imports were 273 million pounds, up 30% from 2020, with record levels from Mexico and Brazil.
  • Annual 2021 imports totaled 3.35 billion pounds, a slight increase from 2020.
  • 2022 import forecast was raised to 3.370 billion pounds.

Pork

• Production:
  • Live equivalent 51-52% lean hog prices were raised in all quarters of 2022 due to tighter supplies and strong consumer demand.
  • Strong seasonal factors are expected to support higher hog prices throughout 2022.
• Exports:
  • Quarterly pork export forecasts were reduced due to lower-than-expected December trade data and recovery of China's swine sector.
  • Total 2022 pork exports are expected to be 6.8 billion pounds, a 3% decrease from 2021.

Poultry and Eggs

• Broilers:
  • 2022 production forecast was adjusted down slightly but still expected to increase by 2% over 2021.
  • Broiler ending stocks were revised down due to lower-than-expected 2021 stocks.
  • Broiler export forecast was reduced slightly but still expected to increase.
  • Annual average broiler price forecast was increased by 1 cent to $161.25 per cwt.
• Eggs:
  • Table egg production was revised down across all quarters due to current flock indicators and higher feed costs.
  • Wholesale egg prices increased due to strong January and February trends.
  • Egg and egg-product export forecast was revised down, while import forecast was revised up.
• Turkey:
  • 2022 turkey production is expected to increase by 1% over 2021.
  • Turkey export forecast was reduced by 20 million pounds.

Dairy

• Production:
  • Milk production in 2021 totaled 226.3 billion pounds, up 1.6% from 2020.
  • Milk cow numbers declined by 1%, with replacement heifers down 3%.
• Prices:
  • All-milk price forecast for 2022 was raised to $23.55 per cwt, up 0.95 from last month.
  • The milk-feed ratio increased from 1.50 in August 2021 to 1.98 in December 2021.
• Exports:
  • Dairy exports were strong in 2021, increasing by 25.4% on a milk-fat basis and 8.3% on a skim-solids basis.
  • Butter and cheese exports increased by 109.7% and 13.9%, respectively.
  • Dry skim milk products and whey protein concentrate exports also increased.
• Domestic Use:
  • Domestic use of milk and dairy products increased by 1.8% on a milk-fat basis in 2021.
  • Domestic use of butter and cheese increased significantly, while use of products high in skim solids decreased slightly.

Special Article: State Animal Welfare Policies for Pork Production

• Several U.S. states have implemented animal welfare regulations that restrict the use of gestation crates in pork production.
• These policies currently cover 3% of U.S. pork production and are concentrated in states with small pork industries.
• Two states have passed retail sales restrictions prohibiting the sale of pork from gestation crate systems.
• These regulations are likely to impact pork production in other states due to their relatively large populations and low pork production.

Key Statistics and Changes

• Cattle Inventory:
  • Cattle and calves on January 1, 2022, were estimated at 91.9 million head, down 2% from 2021.
  • Beef cow numbers declined by 2.3% year-over-year.
• Sheep and Lamb Inventory:
  • Total sheep and lambs on January 1, 2022, were 5.065 million head, down 2.0% from 2021.
  • The 2021 lamb crop was 3,160 thousand head, a 1.6% decrease from 2020.
• Lamb and Mutton Prices:
  • Lamb price forecasts for the first two quarters of 2022 were raised by $5 per cwt, reaching $235 and $230 per cwt, respectively.
  • 2022 lamb and mutton production is forecast at 136 million pounds, a 2% reduction from 2021.

Conclusion

The U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry markets experienced mixed trends in 2021 and early 2022. Beef and pork prices rose due to supply constraints and strong demand, while poultry and dairy production saw some declines. Imports increased significantly in 2021, driven by strong demand and new trade opportunities, but are expected to remain stable or slightly lower in 2022. The report also highlights the growing influence of state-level animal welfare policies on the pork industry.