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US Leisure - Tariff Scorecard: Cruise/Parks Attractive; Powersports Risky

Overview

• Revisiting the impact of US-China trade war escalation (30% China tariff, 10% universal tariff) on leisure industry.
• Rating update for key players based on tariff exposure, recession risk, organic opportunity.

Key Findings

Industry Recommendations

• Buy (1): BRP Inc, Harley Davidson, Hasbro Inc
• Neutral (2): Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, Polaris Inc, Camping World Holdings, Carnival Corp, Cruises Caribbean, MarineMax (High Risk)
• Sell (3): Six Flags Entertainment, United Parks Resorts

Issuer-Specific Highlights

Cruise Companies

• Seas of opportunity due to resilient macro environment, minimal tariff exposure.
• Revenue/EBITDA estimates up due to bookings strength, high price power.

Theme Park Operators

• High exposure to recession, yet minimal direct tariff impact.
• Six Flags maintains upside with new attractions, despite consumer uncertainty.

Toys (Mattel/Hasbro)

• High flexibility in mitigating tariff blowups via supply rebalancing.
• Strong tailwinds for Hasbro due to wizards of the coast outperformance; Mattel sees chip-level strategic opportunities.

RV/RV Manufacturers

• CWH maintains confidence via used-unit strategy; RV sales lag but CWH sees dealer network strength

Powersports (Polaris/BRP)

• Direct and indirect tariff punches for Polaris & BRP; exacerbated by dealer inventory pressures
• Buy/Sell ratings subject to compliance risks, geopolitical uncertainty

Revisiting Citi Ratings: Cruise/Parks Attractive; Powersports Risky

In this continuation of the US Leisure tariff-recession scorecard, Citi maintains its posture that marine cruises, theme parks, and emerging technologies in toys are attractive relative value plays while emphasizing risks in the powersports category. Component-by-component with target price updates, the analysis reviews the latest trading developments following China tariff cession and global recession jitters, positioning select stocks in a high-growth discretionary category as Buy/Neutral recommendations while highlighting risk management caveats for energy-heavy sectors.