2025-05-15-Bernstein-SMC_Corporation（6273）_SMC广泛复苏进行中_估值具有吸引力_19页_3mb

SMC Corporation Analysis Summary

Rating and Price Target

• Outperform rating maintained.
• Price target increased to JPY 74,000, unchanged from previous recommendations.

Key Financial Performance

• 4Q FY3/2025 results exceeded consensus expectations, with new orders up 12% YoY.
• Cross-regional and cross-industry growth confirmed, supporting the broad FA cycle recovery view.
• FY3/2026 guidance aligns with market expectations.

Guidance for FY3/2026

• Sales acceleration expected from mid-2026 due to semiconductor and EV demand, along with labor-saving initiatives.
• Gross profit projected to decrease by JPY10bn due to U.S. tariff impacts on FY3/2026 revenue forecast.

Strategic Outlook

• Aggressive CAPEX strategy for FY3/2026, rising to JPY180bn (up from JPY108bn), focused on the New Technical Center.
• Investment aims to drive innovation, with CAPEX expected to normalize in subsequent years.

Valuation

• Trading below historical average multiples; target price reflects 15.0x EV/EBITDA based on FY3/2027 EBITDA estimate.
• Broad cycle recovery supports the valuation thesis.

Investment Implications

• Reiterate Outperform rating, citing strong competitive positioning and growth drivers.
• Underscores competitive resilience in China despite concerns, with solid growth from both SMC and AirTAC.

Risks

• Competition: Potential intensification in China.
• Macroeconomic: Weaker automation demand or currency fluctuations.
• Currency: JPY appreciation could negatively impact operating profit.