2014年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Senegal_Seventh_Review_under_the_Policy_Support_Instrument_and_Request_for_Modification_of_Assessment_Criteria_75页_971kb

报告摘要

Summary of the Seventh Review Under the Policy Support Instrument for Senegal

Core Content

This document outlines the findings of the seventh review under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI) for Senegal and includes a request for modification of assessment criteria. It presents a comprehensive analysis of the country's economic developments, fiscal performance, and policy discussions conducted by the IMF staff in collaboration with Senegalese authorities between April 16–30, 2014.

Key Issues

Economic Context

GDP Growth: In 2013, GDP growth was lower than expected at 3.5% (vs. 4%), due to weak agricultural production and temporary industrial/mining issues. Non-agricultural GDP growth was in line with program projections at 3.7%.
Inflation: Inflation remained subdued at 0.7% in 2013, primarily due to lower international prices for agricultural commodities.
Current Account Deficit: The deficit was exacerbated by higher expenditure levels, particularly in the public sector, and was not fully offset by revenue shortfalls.
Outlook: Growth is projected to increase to 4.9% in 2014, driven by improved performance in mining, industry, and the service sector. Inflation is expected to remain moderate.

Political Context

Political tensions rose due to local elections and the return of former President Wade.
The government introduced the Plan Sénégal Emergent (PSE) as a new growth strategy aiming to make Senegal an emerging economy by 2035.
The PSE includes 17 major reforms and 27 major projects with a total cost of about $19 billion, over 2014–2018.

Fiscal Outlook

The fiscal deficit for 2013 was 5.5% of GDP, and it was reduced to 5.1% in 2014, with significant progress on expenditure streamlining.
Revenue shortfalls were largely due to slower economic activity, lower inflation, and tax arrears, with tax reform (especially VAT withholding suppression) playing a smaller role.
The PSE is expected to increase capital spending and growth, but fiscal consolidation under the PSE will be slower than under the PSI.

Program Performance

All quantitative assessment criteria and most indicative targets for end-2013 were met, including the budget deficit.
Structural reform implementation was slow, with many benchmarks missed or delayed.
The PSE has been well-promoted by the government, especially by President Sall, and has received significant financial support from development partners.

Main Views and Recommendations

Fiscal Policy for 2014

The authorities reaffirmed their commitment to deficit reduction, targeting a 5.1% deficit for 2014.
Revenue mobilization efforts are essential to offset the 2013 shortfall, with tax reforms and improved administration as key tools.
The 2014 budget includes a US$500 million Eurobond issuance, expected to yield lower interest rates than previous bonds.
The staff recommends a more conservative approach to revenue projections and a focus on strengthening revenue administration.

Reforming the State

Efforts to improve fiscal transparency are ongoing, but more work is needed to ensure clarity and accuracy in fiscal accounts.
The true wage bill is estimated to be 45% higher than the headline number, and true capital expenditure is 45% lower, highlighting the need for better classification of expenditure items.
The implementation of WAEMU directives on public financial management is behind schedule, and a comprehensive plan is expected by end-September 2014.
The 2015 finance law will include an annex detailing energy subsidies and transfers, aligning with current legislation.

Implementing the PSE

The PSE is a well-structured growth strategy, but its implementation requires major reforms to improve economic efficiency and the business environment.
The focus should be on enhancing the efficiency of public investment rather than increasing its volume.
Reforms to the business environment and state restructuring are critical to attract private investment and improve growth inclusivity.

Program Monitoring

The ceiling for non-concessional loans is proposed to be raised to US$1006 million to support the PSE.
The ceiling for semi-concessional loans will be increased to CFAF 224 billion to finance four high-return infrastructure projects.
The indicative target for tax revenue is revised downward to reflect the 2013 shortfall.
The structural benchmark on cost-benefit analysis is replaced with "opportunity studies" to align with domestic legislation.

Key Information

PSE Overview: Aims to boost growth to 7–8% in the medium term through public and private investment and structural reforms.
Fiscal Adjustments: The 2014 fiscal balance is expected to be -5.1% of GDP, slightly lower than the 6th review projection.
Revenue and Expenditure: Revenue to GDP ratio is expected to increase by 0.5 percentage points, but remains below the 6th review target.
Debt Sustainability: The country is at low risk of debt distress if fiscal consolidation continues and nonconcessional borrowing remains prudent.
Program Challenges: Insufficient reform progress and strong expenditure pressures are the main risks to program performance.

Supporting Documents

Staff Report: Prepared by the IMF, includes the debt sustainability analysis and informational annex.
Press Release: Announces the findings of the review and the request for modification of assessment criteria.
Letter of Intent and Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies: These documents are included in the Staff Report and will be released separately.
Technical Memorandum of Understanding: Also included in the Staff Report, outlines the terms of the program.

Conclusion

The staff recommends completing the seventh PSI review and emphasizes the need for continued fiscal discipline, improved revenue mobilization, and accelerated structural reforms to support the PSE's ambitious growth targets. Transparency and alignment with domestic legislation are critical to ensure the success of the reform agenda.

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