2017年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Senegal_Fourth_Review_Under_the_Policy_Support_Instrument_and_Request_for_an_Extension_of_the_Policy_Support_Instrument_51页_1mb

Summary of IMF Country Report No. 17/230: Senegal

Core Content

This report outlines the fourth review under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI) for Senegal and the request for a one-year extension of the PSI arrangement. The IMF Executive Board has completed the review and approved the extension, recognizing Senegal's progress in economic reforms and fiscal consolidation.

Key Information

• Program Objective: To implement economic policies and structural reforms that support strong growth, ongoing fiscal consolidation, and meeting regional fiscal criteria.
• Growth and Fiscal Performance:
  • GDP growth reached 6.7% in 2016, with strong contributions from extractive industries, services, and agriculture.
  • The fiscal deficit fell to 4.2% of GDP in 2016, on track to meet the WAEMU target of 3% of GDP by 2018.
• IMF Support: The PSI has been instrumental in supporting Senegal's reform efforts, including fiscal consolidation, competitiveness, and private investment.
• Request for Extension: The authorities are seeking a one-year extension of the PSI to June 2019, to allow more time for implementing reforms and eliminating additional financing needs.

Main Views

1. Fiscal Policy

• Near-term Reforms: The government is committed to containing public consumption, particularly the wage bill, and using the precautionary reserve envelope (PRE) to strengthen its reform agenda.
• Medium-term Reforms: Efforts are focused on increasing revenue through tax reforms, improving public investment efficiency, and addressing structural deficits in the Post Office and civil service pensions.
• Challenges: Weaknesses in Treasury operations have led to increased public sector borrowing and debt service ratios, which could undermine fiscal sustainability if not addressed.

2. Economic Competitiveness and External Stability

• Current Account: The current account deficit has halved over the last five years and is projected to remain relatively stable in the medium term.
• Export Growth: Strong export performance, particularly in chemicals, food, and metals, has contributed to the improvement in the current account.
• FDI Inflows: FDI inflows have increased slightly but remain below levels of peer countries. Faster implementation of governance and business environment reforms could enhance FDI prospects.
• Debt Vulnerability: While Senegal remains at low risk of debt distress, debt vulnerability has increased due to rising public debt-to-GDP ratios and additional financing needs.

3. Private Investment

• Private Investment: The government is committed to increasing private investment, particularly from SMEs and foreign investors, through structural reforms and the establishment of a Special Economic Zone (SEZ) with a transparent, rules-based system and low tax rates.
• Business Environment: Improving the business environment is critical for attracting private investment. Reforms to reduce energy costs, strengthen governance, and implement judicial and land reforms are needed to facilitate credit to SMEs.

Program Implementation

• Performance: The program has been implemented satisfactorily, with all end-December 2016 assessment criteria and indicative targets met. Four of the seven end-March 2017 targets were also met.
• Structural Benchmarks: Three out of five structural benchmarks were met, with one implemented with a delay and one (establishing accrual accounting for opening balances) not yet implemented.
• Staff Recommendation: The IMF staff recommends the completion of the fourth PSI review and the approval of the one-year extension.

Key Reforms and Actions

• Treasury Operations:
  • The authorities aim to reduce additional financing needs by restructuring the Post Office and Poste Finance, improving civil service pension sustainability, and addressing unutilized appropriations.
  • Measures include separating Poste from Poste Finance, increasing pension contributions, and conducting an external audit of the "comptes de dépôt".
• Revenue Administration:
  • Reforms include restructuring DGID, implementing e-declaration and e-payment systems, and adopting mobile tax payment solutions (MTAX).
  • The government plans to reduce tax exemptions and target subsidies to areas of high economic and social return.
• Public Investment:
  • The project bank is being created to ensure high-value public investment is prioritized.
  • Improvements in project evaluation, implementation, and monitoring have been made.

Outlook and Risks

• Economic Outlook: The outlook remains broadly positive, with growth projected to increase slightly above 7% in the medium term.
• Risks:
  • Domestic risks include the need to address weaknesses in Treasury operations and improve competitiveness.
  • External risks include the potential for rising borrowing costs and security risks in the region affecting investment and growth.

Conclusion

The IMF has acknowledged Senegal's progress in fiscal consolidation and growth, but emphasizes the need for continued reforms to ensure fiscal sustainability and attract private investment. The extension of the PSI provides additional time to implement these reforms and meet regional convergence criteria.