2016年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Senegal_First_Review_Under_the_Policy_Support_Instrument_and_Request_for_Modification_of_Assessment_Criteria_60页_1mb

Summary of the First Review under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI) for Senegal

Core Content

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the first review under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI) for Senegal, which was approved on June 24, 2015. The review, conducted from September 3 to 16, 2015, included discussions with Senegalese officials and development partners. The Staff Report, along with the Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) Update, was prepared based on information available up to December 1, 2015. The report outlines the macroeconomic performance, program implementation, and policy discussions.

Main Views and Key Information

Macroeconomic Outlook

• Economic Growth: Projected at 5.1% in 2015 and 5.9% in 2016, in line with the PSI targets.
• Inflation: Remains low and is expected to stay within the 1-2% range over the medium term.
• Current Account: Improved in the first half of 2015 due to lower oil prices and favorable trade conditions.
• Debt Position: Senegal remains at low risk of debt distress, with external public debt projected at 39.3% of GDP in 2015 and total public debt at 54.4% of GDP. The debt service profile is stable, except for 2021 and 2024 when Eurobonds will mature.

Program Performance

• Fiscal Deficit: The end-June assessment criteria were met, but the tax revenue target was slightly missed due to lower-than-expected customs revenue and higher-than-anticipated tax expenditures.
• Structural Reforms: All structural benchmarks were met, including the establishment of the Precautionary Reserve Envelope (PRE) and the implementation of measures to streamline public spending.
• Debt Criteria: The authorities requested the removal of nonconcessional external debt assessment criteria, in line with the Fund's new debt limits policy.

Risks and Challenges

• Fiscal Risks: Delays in expenditure rationalization and potential revenue shortfalls if tax reform fails to be revenue neutral.
• External Risks: Continued oil price volatility, regional shocks (including extremism), and slower growth in trading partners may affect Senegal’s economy.
• Natural Disasters: Could negatively impact agriculture, which is expected to perform better due to a favorable rainy season.

Policy Discussions

A. Fiscal Policies

• 2015 Deficit Target: Achieved at 4.8% of GDP, slightly higher than the initial projection of 4.7%.
• Wage Bill Control: Limited to 6.3% of GDP through measures such as freezing pay supplements, tightening overtime controls, and reducing unnecessary expenditures.
• Tax Reforms: Tax expenditures increased in recent years, with a focus on improving the investment climate rather than granting tax exemptions. The authorities plan to rationalize tax expenditures and improve compliance through the implementation of the single taxpayer identification number (NINEA).
• PRE Expansion: The PRE will be expanded to cover both current and capital expenditures in 2016, with a focus on projects with net social/economic benefits.

B. Financial Sector Policies

• Sector Stability: The financial sector remains sound, with a 7% increase in net domestic credit and a reduction in non-performing loans (NPLs) expected after restructuring.
• Reforms: The authorities are encouraged to finalize the introduction of credit information bureaus, enhance financial education for SMEs, and implement a national financial inclusion strategy.
• Transparency: The use of the latest version of the Manual of Financial and Banking Statistics will improve transparency and monitoring of financial stability.

C. Structural Reforms

• Energy Sector Reform: A new reform plan was approved in 2015, focusing on updating electricity infrastructure, reconfiguring SAR’s capital, and rural electrification. The plan includes a performance contract, recruitment and voluntary departure programs, and restructuring of departments.
• Agency Restructuring: The initial plan to close 16 agencies and merge 8 into 3 has not been fully implemented. A decree caps director general and executive pay, and by end-2015, the authorities will set maximum pay levels for the rest of the staff and update restructuring measures.
• SME Support: Structural reforms aim to create economic space for SMEs and FDI by improving the business environment, reducing rent-seeking, and enhancing infrastructure and logistics.

Key Reforms Required to Achieve PSE Growth Targets

• Promote Macroeconomic Stability: To encourage private investment.
• Create Budget Space: Through reduced subsidies for loss-making enterprises.
• Improve Public Financial Management (PFM): To enhance the effectiveness of public investment.
• Simplify Tax System: To improve compliance and encourage informal SMEs to join the formal sector.

Conclusion

The PSI program has been largely successful in meeting its targets, with continued support from the IMF and other development partners. However, challenges remain in implementing structural reforms and managing fiscal risks. The focus on improving the investment climate, rationalizing tax expenditures, and enhancing financial sector stability is crucial to achieving the PSE growth objectives. The upcoming reforms are expected to support sustained, inclusive, and high economic growth.