2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Rwanda_Second_Review_Under_the_Policy_Support_Instrument_and_Request_for_Modification_of_Assessment_Criteria_Staff_Report_Staff_Supplement_Press_Release_92页_1mb

Summary of Rwanda: Second Review Under the Policy Support Instrument and Request for Modification of Assessment Criteria

Core Content

This document outlines the results of the second review under the IMF's Policy Support Instrument (PSI) for Rwanda, conducted in March 2011, and the subsequent request for modification of assessment criteria. It includes a staff report, a staff supplement, and a press release, all of which provide an analysis of Rwanda's economic developments, policy performance, and future outlook.

Main Points

Economic Recovery and Performance

• Rwanda's economy experienced a strong recovery in 2010, with real GDP growth reaching 7.5%.
• The recovery was supported by government spending, growth in the services sector (particularly telecom), improved financial services, and a recovery in tourism.
• A favorable external environment, including higher commodity prices and large public transfers, helped narrow the current account deficit to 6% of GDP.
• Inflation was very low in 2010 (under 1% year-on-year) but began to rise due to global food and fuel price increases, reaching 4.1% in March 2011.
• The exchange rate remained relatively stable, depreciating by about 4.1% against the US dollar during 2010.

Program Performance

• The PSI-supported program was performed satisfactorily, with all end-December 2010 and continuous quantitative assessment criteria met, except for one structural benchmark.
• The structural benchmark related to the transfer of social security and health insurance premium collection to the Rwanda Revenue Authority (RRA) was delayed and reset to September 2011.
• The budget execution for the first half of FY2010/11 was on track, but the authorities had to issue additional domestic debt to cover shortfalls in external grants.

Policy Discussions

Overview

• The medium-term outlook for Rwanda remains positive, with real GDP growth projected to decline slightly to 7% in 2011 and stabilize around trend growth of 6.5%.
• Inflation is expected to rise sharply to 7.5% in 2011 due to global food and fuel price increases.
• International reserves are expected to gradually decline to about 3.5 months of imports by 2016.

Fiscal Consolidation

• The FY2011/12 budget aims to rebuild fiscal buffers and narrow the overall fiscal deficit (including grants) from 4.2% of GDP to 1.8%.
• Net domestic financing is expected to decline from about 2% to less than 0.5% of GDP.
• The fiscal consolidation strategy involves reducing government spending and strengthening tax administration and public financial management (PFM) systems.
• Spending is programmed to decline by 1.3% of GDP, below the 2009/10 level, while revenues are targeted to increase by 0.2% of GDP.

Monetary Policy

• The National Bank of Rwanda (NBR) implemented a market-based exchange rate system in December 2010, removing the Average Reference Rate (ARR).
• The NBR has committed to regularly review inflationary developments and tighten monetary policy if necessary to anchor inflation expectations.
• The interbank exchange rate corridor framework was introduced in June 2010, improving foreign exchange market efficiency.

Financial Sector

• The financial sector has seen improvements in stability, capitalization, and non-performing loans.
• However, access to credit remains a challenge, with Rwanda ranked 32nd out of 183 countries in terms of credit accessibility.
• The NBR is working to improve financial soundness and the institutional framework for financial services.

Structural Reforms

• The authorities have made progress in implementing structural reforms, including the introduction of a new PFM system and the modernization of customs procedures.
• The staff welcomed these reforms and encouraged further efforts to enhance policy coordination and institutional capacity.

Key Information

• The staff report was completed on June 7, 2011, following discussions with Rwandan officials.
• The Executive Board approved the second review and recommended the modification of end-June 2011 assessment criteria, setting of end-December 2011 criteria, and approval of structural benchmarks for FY2011/12.
• The fiscal deficit is expected to widen in 2011 due to increased spending on health-related grants and the delayed implementation of some structural benchmarks.
• The authorities plan to reduce fuel taxes in 2011/12 to mitigate the impact of rising oil prices on the population and support tax harmonization within the East African Community (EAC).
• The financial sector continues to improve, but challenges in credit access and institutional sustainability remain.

Risks and Challenges

• Rising global food and fuel prices pose inflationary risks.
• Limited institutional capacity and coordination hinder effective implementation of the Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy (EDPRS).
• The early adoption of a sustainable institutional structure for Savings and Credit Cooperatives (SACCOs) is recommended to mitigate risks associated with their large-scale roll-out.

Conclusion

• Rwanda's economic recovery in 2010 was robust and driven by both domestic and external factors.
• The PSI-supported program has been executed satisfactorily, with most performance criteria met.
• Continued fiscal consolidation, monetary policy adjustments, and structural reforms are necessary to sustain macroeconomic stability and support long-term growth.