2014年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Uganda_Second_Review_Under_the_Policy_Support_Instrument_and_Request_for_Modification_of_Assessment_Criteria_77页_1mb

Uganda: Second Review Under the Policy Support Instrument and Request for Modification of Assessment Criteria

Core Content Summary

This document outlines the findings of the IMF's second review under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI) for Uganda, conducted in May–June 2014. It includes the Staff Report, Press Release, and Statement by the Executive Director, along with supporting annexes and tables. The review assesses Uganda's macroeconomic performance, fiscal and monetary policies, and structural reforms in the context of economic challenges and risks.

Key Issues

• Economic Performance: Uganda's economy showed broad resilience with real GDP growth, low inflation, and maintained international reserves. However, growth was uneven, with delays in key infrastructure projects and weak private sector performance.
• Fiscal Policy: The fiscal position worsened due to revenue shortfalls and increased current spending, leading to a larger-than-expected fiscal expansion. The authorities aim to address this by implementing tax reforms, spending efficiency measures, and reducing arrears.
• Monetary Policy: The central bank maintained a tight monetary stance, with the policy rate reduced slightly in June 2014. High lending rates and deteriorating bank asset quality constrained private sector credit growth.
• Structural Reforms: Progress was made on reforms such as the payroll system, treasury accounting, and the treasury single account (TSA). However, delays persist in some areas, including the reform of the Bank of Uganda Act and the implementation of the Public Financial Management (PFM) Bill.
• Outlook and Risks: The economic outlook is positive, with projected GDP growth and inflation control. However, significant downside risks exist, including fiscal slippages, weak parliamentary support for tax reforms, and regional instability.

Main Points

1. Economic Developments

• Real GDP growth remained robust, but was below expectations due to lower external inflows and agricultural output.
• Inflation declined, with headline and core inflation at 5.4% and 3.3% respectively in May 2014.
• International reserves are expected to remain at a comfortable level, equivalent to 4.2 months of imports.

2. Fiscal Challenges

• The fiscal deficit increased due to revenue shortfalls and higher current spending, raising domestic borrowing needs.
• The authorities aim to reduce the fiscal deficit to 4.8% of GDP in FY2014/15 and 3.7% in FY2015/16.
• A significant compliance gap in VAT collection (around 5–6% of GDP) remains, with potential for improvement through policy reforms and better tax administration.

3. Revenue Mobilization

• Tax reforms are planned to broaden the tax base and increase revenue, with a focus on removing VAT exemptions and improving tax compliance.
• The authorities have committed to a 0.5% increase in tax-to-GDP ratio for FY2014/15 and FY2015/16.
• The removal of VAT exemptions is expected to generate about 0.4% of GDP in additional revenue, while tax administration efforts are projected to yield 0.1% of GDP.

4. Spending Efficiency

• Efforts to improve spending efficiency include rationalizing expenditures and reducing arrears.
• The government has taken steps to address the compliance gap and improve tax collection mechanisms, including audits, marketing campaigns, and better management of VAT refunds.

5. Structural Reforms

• Progress was made on PFM reforms, including the implementation of the payroll system and the treasury single account (TSA).
• The Public Financial Management Bill is under approval and regulation.
• The Bank of Uganda Act is expected to be amended to support inflation targeting and monetary policy independence.

6. Monetary Policy

• The central bank maintained a tight monetary stance, with the policy rate reduced slightly in June 2014.
• High lending rates and weak credit demand limited private sector growth.
• The Bank of Uganda continued foreign exchange purchases to preserve reserves, with sterilization through repo operations.

7. Risks and Outlook

• Downside risks include early electoral cycle pressures, insufficient parliamentary support, and regional instability.
• The IMF supports the completion of the second PSI review and recommends a waiver for the net domestic financing ceiling.
• The PFM-related structural benchmarks were met, while others are proposed for redefinition or postponement.

Key Documents and Attachments

• Staff Report: Includes analysis of economic developments and policy performance.
• Informational Annex: Provides additional context and data.
• Press Release: Announces the review and includes a statement by the IMF Executive Board.
• Letter of Intent and Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies: Outlines Uganda's commitments and policy measures.
• Technical Memorandum of Understanding: Details the terms of the PSI.

Conclusion

The IMF staff supports Uganda's continued engagement under the PSI, emphasizing the need for fiscal discipline, improved tax compliance, and structural reforms to ensure sustainable economic growth and stability.