2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Rwanda_Fourth_Review_Under_the_Policy_Support_Instrument_and_Request_for_Modification_of_Assessment_Criteria_Staff_Report_Press_Release_87页_1mb

Rwanda: Fourth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument and Request for Modification of Assessment Criteria

Core Content

This document outlines the findings of the IMF's fourth review under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI) for Rwanda, which was completed on May 22, 2012, following discussions with Rwandan officials from March 15 to 28, 2012. The report includes a staff appraisal of the country's economic performance and policy discussions, and it also covers the request for modification of assessment criteria. The documents are available for public access, with the exception of market-sensitive information.

Key Economic Developments

• Growth and Poverty Reduction: Rwanda's economy grew strongly in 2011 with real GDP growth estimated at 8.6%. The country made significant progress in poverty reduction, with the poverty headcount ratio dropping from 56.7% in 2005/06 to 44.9% in 2010/11, and further to 44.9% in 2011. This was driven by agricultural output, robust exports, and strong domestic demand.
• Inflation: Inflation rose sharply in 2011 to 8.3% (year-on-year) but remained in single digits and among the lowest in the region. Core inflation declined to 5.3% in March 2012, reflecting a planned reduction in fuel taxes.
• Balance of Payments: The balance of payments recorded a surplus in 2011, largely due to strong capital inflows. Exports (coffee, tea, minerals) were higher than expected, while imports grew significantly, worsening the current account deficit to 7.3% of GDP. However, international reserves remained at comfortable levels, reaching almost five months of imports by end-2011.
• Fiscal Deficit: The fiscal deficit for FY 2011/12 was lower than programmed, at about 1% of GDP. The overall fiscal balance (including grants) improved, and the program is on track to reduce the fiscal deficit to just below 2% of GDP in FY 2011/12.

Policy Discussions

A. Outlook and Risks

• The macroeconomic outlook remains generally favorable, with output growth expected to ease to 7.7% in 2012 and stabilize around 7% thereafter.
• The main drivers of growth will continue to be agriculture, exports, and domestic demand.
• Inflation is projected to decline to 7.5% by end-2012 and converge to the 5% target in the medium term.
• The mission cautioned against growth and inflation risks stemming from the uncertain global environment and emphasized the need for realism and vigilance.

B. Increasing Investment While Containing Domestic Financing

• The authorities plan to accelerate capital project implementation in the second half of the fiscal year, which should bring total spending and the budget deficit in line with the original budget.

C. Enhancing the Monetary Policy Framework

• Monetary policy remained accommodative in 2011, with the repo rate still negative in real terms. This led to higher-than-programmed broad money growth, primarily driven by increased private sector credit.

D. Securing Financing to Scale Up Investments

• The authorities are working to secure financing for large public and private investment projects, which have contributed to a larger-than-expected balance of payments surplus.

E. Strengthening the Financial Sector

• Financial sector soundness indicators have improved, with the capital-to-risk-weighted assets ratio rising to 23.8% and non-performing loans declining to 8.2%.
• All 416 Savings and Credit Cooperatives (SACCOs) are authorized to grant loans, with most licensed to lend 40% of their deposits.

F. Advancing Structural Reforms

• The authorities are working on the medium-term debt strategy (MTDS), which is expected to be submitted to the cabinet in May 2012 and to parliament along with the Budget Framework paper by the end of June 2012.
• Structural benchmarks related to the publication of budget execution reports and the transfer of social security contributions auditing were completed in March and May 2012, respectively.

Program Issues

• The quantitative assessment criteria for end-December 2011 were all met.
• The staff recommends the completion of the fourth review under the PSI, modification of end-June 2012 assessment criteria, setting of end-December 2012 criteria, and approval of additional structural benchmarks for the rest of the PSI.

Key Information

• IMF Staff Views: The staff recommends the completion of the fourth review and the modification of assessment criteria.
• Authorities' Consent: The authorities have consented to the publication of the report.
• IMF Mission Team: The mission team included Ms. McAuliffe (head), Messrs. Arnason, Ben Ltaifa, Yabara (all AFR), and Raman (SPR). Mr. Gershenson, the resident representative, assisted the mission.
• Meeting Participants: The mission met with key officials, including the Minister of Finance, the Governor of the National Bank, and representatives from the private sector and development partners.

Risks and Downside Scenario

• Downside Risks: The main risks to the outlook are related to the external environment, including weaker global demand, higher international fuel and food prices, and a shortfall in foreign financing.
• Impact of Downside Scenario: A 10% shortfall in exports and tourism receipts would weaken the trade balance and growth. The impact on inflation could be significant, with headline inflation rising, but core inflation would depend on the speed and extent of monetary policy response.
• Aid Dependency: Rwanda remains aid dependent, and a shortfall in foreign aid could have a significant impact on the economy, although it seems unlikely in the near term.

Conclusion

The fourth review under the PSI was completed successfully, with all quantitative assessment criteria met. The staff recommends proceeding with the review and modifying the assessment criteria for the end of June 2012. The country is on track to achieve its macroeconomic goals, with a strong outlook for growth and inflation control, although risks from the global economy remain. The authorities have shown commitment to structural reforms and maintaining macroeconomic stability.