2016年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Senegal_Second_Review_Under_the_Policy_Support_Instrument_and_Request_for_Modification_of_an_Assessment_Criterion_55页_1mb

Summary of the Second Review Under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI) for Senegal

Core Content

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the second review of Senegal's economic performance under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI) on May 25, 2016, following discussions held in Dakar from March 1 to March 14, 2016. The review assessed the country's progress in fiscal and structural reforms, as well as its broader economic performance and outlook.

Main Views and Key Information

Economic Performance and Outlook

• Growth: Senegal's economic growth reached 6.5% in 2015, the highest in 12 years, and is projected to remain at 6.6% in 2016 and around 7% in the medium term. This growth is attributed to the implementation of the Plan Sénégal Emergent (PSE) projects, improved agricultural performance, and increased activity in the secondary sector.
• Inflation: Inflation remains low, at 0.4% year-on-year in December 2015, and is expected to stay within the 1-2% range in the medium term.
• Current Account: The current account balance narrowed to 7.6% of GDP in 2015, down from 8.9% in 2014, due to lower oil prices and higher exports. It is projected to improve further to 6% of GDP in 2016.
• Fiscal Deficit: The 2016 fiscal deficit target of 4.2% of GDP (CFAF 372 billion) remains on track, and the country is expected to meet the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) convergence criteria of 3% of GDP one year earlier than the mandated 2019.
• Debt: Public debt reached 56.8% of GDP in 2015, up from previous estimates, but remains on a sustainable path. It is projected to increase to 57.3% in 2016 and then decline to 50% by 2021.

Structural Reforms

• Fiscal Reforms: The authorities are committed to reducing public consumption and increasing public investment in human capital and infrastructure. The wage bill is expected to rise slightly in 2016 but will decrease in the following years.
• Subsidy Reform: Energy subsidies are being phased out, and the elimination of subsidies is expected to become the norm as reforms to boost electricity generation and reduce costs accelerate.
• Public Sector Efficiency: Efforts are being made to streamline public expenditure and improve the efficiency of spending, including controlling subsidies and the wage bill.
• Single Tender Contracts: The share of public sector contracts signed by single tender was not met in 2015, partly due to the use of unsolicited bids to accelerate rural electrification. The authorities have committed to favor transparent tenders and continue monitoring this indicative target.

Financial Sector

• Financial Stability: The financial sector remains sound, with progress made in restructuring non-performing loans (NPLs). NPLs fell from 23% to 18.8% of total loans by the end of 2015.
• Financial Inclusion: A credit information bureau (CIB), Creditinfo VoLo, was established in 2015 to support financial deepening and inclusion. Banks and microfinance institutions are required to participate, and customers must provide consent for their information to be shared.

Program Issues

• Program Performance: The PSI program performance was broadly satisfactory, with all end-December 2015 assessment criteria met. However, four indicative targets were missed, primarily due to delays in implementing structural reforms and the use of unsolicited bids.
• Fiscal Consolidation: The authorities reaffirmed their commitment to fiscal consolidation and the achievement of the 2016 deficit target. Continued efforts to improve revenue collection and expenditure efficiency are necessary to meet the PSE's long-term objectives.

Risk and Mitigation

• Downside Risks: Risks include slow implementation of reforms to reduce patronage and rent-seeking, continued unproductive public consumption, and regional security threats. These risks could affect the growth trajectory and are being mitigated through the precautionary reserve envelope (PRE).
• External Risks: Global conditions and investor risk appetite could impact external financing and capital inflows, but the country has access to sufficient liquidity and strong demand for its debt on international markets.

Key Reforms and Initiatives

• Elimination of Inefficient Agencies: Five public agencies with no formal existence were eliminated by April 2016, and performance contracts were signed with several others.
• Special Economic Zone: A special economic zone is being established to promote good economic governance and create a favorable environment for SMEs and FDI.
• Tax Reforms: The authorities are exploring ways to rationalize tax expenditures, including the implementation of an action plan to be finalized by August 2016.
• Treasury Single Account (TSA): The implementation of the TSA continues, with the first-generation system completed before the June 2016 deadline and the second-generation system operational from June 2016 onwards.

Conclusion

The IMF staff supports the authorities' request for the completion of the second PSI review and acknowledges the progress made in fiscal and structural reforms. The country is on track to meet its fiscal deficit targets and regional convergence criteria, but continued efforts are needed to address the risks and ensure sustainable growth. The PSE's long-term goals require steadfast implementation of reforms to open economic space for SMEs and FDI, as well as a shift from public consumption to public investment.