巴黎银行-全球-债券市场-G10债券收益率预测：2019年Q2更新-20190311-7页_1014kb

G10 Rates Summary: Q2 2019 Update

Core Content Overview

This document provides updated forecasts for G10 interest rates and bond yields for Q2 2019, based on the BNP Paribas Global Outlook. The analysis reflects changes in central bank policies and economic outlooks, particularly focusing on the US, Germany, Japan, and Australia. It highlights the potential impact of monetary policy shifts on yield curves and spreads.

Main Points

• US Federal Reserve: No further rate hikes are expected in 2019, leading to a downward revision in Treasury yield forecasts.
• Germany (EONIA): Yield forecasts have been lowered due to weaker European growth expectations and a more accommodative stance by the European Central Bank.
• United Kingdom (BoE): The Bank of England is expected to hike rates only once in 2019, which has affected yield forecasts.
• Australia (RBA): The Reserve Bank of Australia is anticipated to cut rates in 2019, resulting in lower yield forecasts for Australian bonds.
• Sovereign Spreads: Tightening is expected as central banks continue to provide liquidity, which is likely to reduce the spread between yields of different countries.

Key Information

US Rates Forecast

Germany Rates Forecast

Japan Rates Forecast

Australia Rates Forecast

Yield Curve and Spread Analysis

US Yield Curves and Spreads

Germany Yield Curves and Spreads

Australia Yield Curves and Spreads

Important Notes

• The document is a marketing communication and not independent research.
• It is intended for professional clients and eligible counterparties.
• It may include performance data based on back-testing, which is for illustrative purposes only.
• The information is subject to change and should not be relied upon as a substitute for independent judgment.
• BNPP may have conflicts of interest and may engage in transactions inconsistent with the views expressed in this document.