巴黎银行-欧洲-宏观策略-2019年春季英国宏观预览-20190311-7页_1mb

报告摘要

UK Spring Statement 2019 Preview Summary

Core Content

The UK Spring Statement 2019 is expected to focus on economic projections and fiscal policy updates, rather than introducing significant new tax or policy measures. The report highlights that the Chancellor is likely to follow through on his promise to keep the statement a simple update, given the ongoing Brexit-related uncertainty and the potential for parliamentary votes to invalidate previous forecasts.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is anticipated to revise its economic forecasts downward due to prolonged uncertainty surrounding Brexit. The report also notes that the public finances may show better-than-expected results, potentially leading to a reduction in debt interest spending and borrowing forecasts.

Main Points

Brexit Impact: Brexit votes and uncertainty will dominate the Spring Statement, possibly rendering the OBR's forecasts less reliable.
Economic Projections: The OBR is expected to lower the 2019 GDP growth forecast from 1.6% to around 1.2% due to prolonged uncertainty.
Fiscal Policy: The Chancellor is likely to avoid major fiscal giveaways until the Brexit outcome is clear, deferring such decisions to the Autumn Statement and Spending Review.
Gilt Market Outlook: Gilt yields are expected to remain stable near term, influenced by APF reinvestments, LDI hedging activity, and Brexit uncertainty. Short ASW positions may be considered from mid-April when these effects may begin to subside.
Debt Management Office (DMO) Adjustments: The DMO may adjust its remittance structure, including:
- Increasing the average auction size.
- Raising the proportion of short and medium-term debt.
- Continuing the gradual decline in ILB issuance.
Market Reactions: These changes are expected to have limited impact on markets as they were previously flagged in investor consultations and are a response to shifting demand patterns.

Key Information

The Spring Statement is anticipated to be a benign event, with minimal new policy announcements.
Gilt yields are likely to remain grounded due to ongoing market factors, but may rise if a Brexit deal is reached.
The OBR's forecasts are based on a "relatively smooth exit from the EU", which may no longer be a valid assumption due to recent Brexit developments.
Public finances may show a surplus in January, but this is not expected to be sustained, potentially leading to lower borrowing forecasts.
Tax and employment data suggest that economic conditions could worsen in the near term, affecting income tax receipts.

Disclaimer and Legal Information

This document is a marketing communication and is not independent research under UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) rules. It is intended for Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties as defined under MiFID II. It may also contain "Research" as defined under MiFID II unbundling rules, which is available only to those who have signed up to BNPP Global Markets Research packages or are out of scope of MiFID II.

Conflicts of Interest: BNPP may have financial interests in the securities or entities mentioned, and may act as a market maker, advisor, or underwriter.
Non-Advisory Nature: The document does not provide investment, financial, legal, or tax advice.
No Guarantee of Accuracy: The information and opinions are based on public sources and may not be independently verified.
Performance Data: Any performance data included is based on back-testing and is not indicative of future results.
Regulatory Information: The report is subject to various regulatory disclosures, including:
- UK: Prepared by BNPP London Branch.
- France: Produced by BNPP SA and BNPP Arbitrage.
- Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, and Switzerland: Distributed by respective BNPP branches, all under ECB and ACPR supervision.
- Canada: Specific disclosures apply to Canadian recipients.

Conclusion

The UK Spring Statement 2019 is expected to be a low-impact fiscal update, with the focus on economic projections and Brexit-related developments. The OBR is likely to downgrade growth forecasts and reduce borrowing expectations, but will avoid major fiscal initiatives until the Brexit outcome is clear. The gilt market is anticipated to remain stable near term, with potential for upward movement if a deal is finalized. The report serves as non-independent research and is not intended as investment advice.