巴黎银行-全球-投资策略-政府债券收益预期下调-20190131-7页_919kb

FLASH | Rates Forecasts Summary

Core Content

This document provides updated interest rate forecasts for the G3 countries (United States, Euro Area, and Japan) for 2019, based on revised economic and central bank outlooks. The key message is that the forecasts for government bond yields have been significantly lowered, primarily due to a more dovish stance from central banks and weaker growth expectations in the Euro Area.

Main Points

1. Lower Yield Forecasts

• United States:

  • 10-year Treasury yield forecasts were cut by 70 basis points (bps) for 2019.
  • The Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates only once in 2019.
  • The market may anticipate future rate cuts in the second half of the year.

• Euro Area:

  • 10-year Bund yield forecasts were cut by 60 bps.
  • Revised GDP growth forecast for 2019 is 1%, a 0.4pp downward revision from previous estimates.
  • Weaker growth outlook leads to lower inflation expectations, with HICP forecast at 1.4%.
  • The European Central Bank (ECB) is not expected to raise policy rates during the 2019–20 forecasting horizon.

• Japan:

  • 10-year JGB yield forecasts were cut by 20 bps.
  • The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is more likely to ease than tighten monetary policy in the future.
  • The forecast suggests a lower trajectory for yields compared to earlier estimates.

2. Market Strategy Implications

• The lower yield forecasts support the case for carry trades.
• Recommended strategies include:
  • Long 5y5y euro swap.
  • Long 10y Spain versus France.
  • Italy 3s5s flatteners.
• The report also suggests hedging against rising USD inflation.

3. Yield Forecast Tables

4. Key Drivers of the Forecast Changes

• Dovish central bank policies in the US, Euro Area, and Japan.
• Weaker growth outlook in the Euro Area, which constrains inflation and policy rate increases.
• Expectations of future rate cuts in the US and potential easing in Japan.

Key Information

• The forecasts are based on updated economic analysis and central bank behavior.
• The report is non-independent research and intended for professional clients and eligible counterparties.
• It is a marketing communication and not investment research under MiFID II.
• The report does not provide investment, legal, or tax advice.
• It includes hypothetical and back-tested performance data for illustrative purposes only.
• There are conflicts of interest due to BNPP's involvement in related transactions and advisory roles.

Disclaimer

• This document is for informational purposes only and not to be relied upon as authoritative.
• It is not a prospectus or public offering and does not constitute an offer to sell or issue securities.
• Indicative prices are based on internal models and may not reflect actual market terms.
• The information may be subject to change without notice.
• No liability is accepted for any losses arising from the use of this document.

Legal Information

• The document is produced by a BNPP group company and is intended for specific recipients.
• It is not to be reproduced or transmitted without prior written consent.
• The report may contain performance data based on back-testing, which is not indicative of future results.
• Options, ETFs, and other financial instruments discussed may involve significant risk and are not suitable for all investors.
• Restricted securities may not be offered or sold in the US without registration or exemption.

Conclusion

The updated rate forecasts suggest a lower yield environment for the G3 countries in 2019, driven by dovish central bank policies and weaker economic growth in the Euro Area. These forecasts support carry trade strategies, particularly in the Euro Area. However, the document is non-independent research, and investment decisions should be made with careful consideration and professional advice.