20140812-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_12页_2mb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary
Core Content
This summary provides an overview of the oil and gas market activity and analyst ratings for various companies across Asia, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam, as of 11 August 2014. It includes updates on crude oil and fuel prices, news headlines, and the latest analyst reports and valuations.
Major Market Updates
- Libya: Resumed crude loading at Ras Lanuf port, but output remains constrained.
- China: July naphtha output increased by 0.38%, driven by Sinopec's increased loading rates, while major refiners' average utilization rate decreased by 1.5%.
- Sinopec & PetroChina: Expected to increase daily crude throughput by 0.63% in August.
- COSL: Delivered its second major seismic vessel, HYSY721, in Shanghai.
- Petron (Philippines): 1H sales rose by 8.3% YoY due to fuel sales growth and expanded retail network.
- Statoil: Shut down the Statfjord C platform for four days due to an oil leak probe.
- Marathon Oil: Farmed in Gabon's Tchicuate block, with 100% ownership.
- InterOil: Hired ex-BG CEO Chris Finlayson as chairman.
Analyst Reports and Ratings
- Icon Offshore Berhad: Initiated with a BUY rating and a target price of MYR2.00, based on a 15x 2015 PER. It is one of the largest OSV operators in Malaysia with a 32-unit fleet and expected expansion to 39 units by 1Q16.
- Petronas Gas: Maintained HOLD rating with a target price of MYR23.50. 1H14 core net profit was in line with expectations.
- Nam Cheong Ltd: Maintained BUY rating with a target price of SGD0.55, based on a 2.2x FY15E P/BV. Revenue recognition and vessel demand remain strong.
- Perdana Petroleum: Maintained BUY rating with a target price of MYR2.55. It is highlighted as a top OSV pick with potential earnings growth from new AWB deliveries in 2016.
- Sembcorp Industries: Maintained HOLD rating with a target price of SGD5.03. 2Q14 PATMI met expectations, but domestic power demand is under pressure.
- Malaysia Marine & Heavy Engineering: Maintained BUY rating with a target price of MYR4.60. Earnings forecasts revised due to new profit recognition methods.
- Regional Oil & Gas Services: Rated OVERWEIGHT, with key BUYs including KNM, Pernada Petroleum, Ezion, and Nam Cheong.
- Cosco Corp: Maintained SELL rating with a target price of SGD0.67. FY14E order winds revised down due to weak offshore and shipbuilding outlook.
Price and Index Movements
- Crude Oil (Brent): Last price USD104.68, down -0.34 USD, with a 1D change of -0.3%.
- Crude Oil (WTI): Last price USD98.08, up +0.43 USD, with a 1D change of +0.4%.
- Dubai Fateh Spot: Last price USD103.47, down -1.30 USD, with a 1D change of -1.2%.
- China Daqing Spot: Last price USD101.21, down -1.42 USD, with a 1D change of -1.4%.
- NYMEX Henry Hub: Last price USD3.97, no change, with a 1D change of 0.1%.
- LNG Northeast Asia CFR: Last price USD11.80, up +0.20 USD, with a 1D change of +1.7%.
- Singapore 92 RON Spot: Last price USD110.14, up +0.62 USD, with a 1D change of +0.6%.
- Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot: Last price USD118.49, down -1.54 USD, with a 1D change of -1.3%.
- 3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot: Last price USD594.49, down -7.98 USD, with a 1D change of -1.3%.
- Gold: Last price USD1,308.48, down -1.10 USD, with a 1D change of -0.1%.
- USD-CNY: Last rate 6.15, no change, with a 1D change of 0.0%.
- DJI: Last price 16,569.98, up +16.05, with a 1D change of +0.1%.
- S&P 500: Last price 1,936.92, up +5.33, with a 1D change of +0.3%.
Valuation Comparison
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price 11-Aug | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USDm) | P/E (2014E) | P/E (2015E) | EV/EBITDA (2014E) | EV/EBITDA (2015E) | RoE (%) | P/B (X) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | Buy | 10.56 | 11.50 | 238.7 | 95.2 | 11.6 | 10.4 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 11.3 | 1.3 | 3.9 |
| Sinopoe - H | 386 HK | Hold | 7.59 | 6.85 | 103.5 | 72.7 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 11.7 | 1.1 | 3.9 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | Hold | 14.34 | 14.34 | 82.6 | 85.5 | 9.4 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 15.1 | 1.3 | 3.8 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | Buy | 309.20 | 443.00 | 9.5 | 15.5 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 23.6 | 4.3 | 4.5 |
| Petronas Gas | PTG MK | Hold | 21.32 | 23.50 | 13.2 | 7.2 | 25.3 | 24.4 | 14.4 | 13.8 | 16.1 | 3.9 | 2.8 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | Buy | 12.80 | 16.80 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 16.0 | 8.2 | 10.4 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| Phoenix Petro | PNX PM | Buy | 5.67 | 7.05 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 9.1 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 13.9 | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| PTT Global Chemical PCL | PTTGC TB | Buy | 64.50 | 87.00 | 9.1 | 24.6 | 9.1 | 8.4 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 13.0 | 1.1 | 4.9 |
| Thai Oil PCL | TOP TB | Sell | 51.50 | 65.00 | 3.3 | 5.7 | 12.1 | 10.6 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 9.5 | 1.1 | 3.9 |
| Asian Refiners average | - | - | - | - | - | - | 16.8 | 13.1 | 8.5 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 1.4 | 3.3 |
Key Observations
- Crude oil prices in Dubai Fateh and China Daqing continued their decline, with a 1.2% and 1.4% drop respectively.
- The S&P 500 and DJI showed minor gains, indicating a positive market sentiment.
- Analysts highlighted the importance of fleet expansion, operational performance, and geopolitical risks in evaluating oil and gas companies.
- The valuation comparison shows varying price-to-earnings and enterprise value-to-EBITDA multiples, reflecting diverse market expectations and company fundamentals.
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