20140320-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_547kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 20 Mar 2014
Core Content
This summary outlines the key developments and insights in the regional oil and gas sector as of 19 March 2014, with a focus on refining margins, upstream discoveries, and market valuations. It includes news headlines, analyst insights, and a comparison of valuation metrics across various companies in Asia and globally.
Main News Headlines
Refining Margins Improvement
- Shengli Crude Refiners: Refining margins improved for Shandong refiners using Shengli crude as feedstock, averaging CNY58/tonne on 19 Mar vs CNY18/tonne on 12 Mar.
- Gasoil Price Increase: Gasoil prices increased by CNY100/tonne, contributing to the improved margins.
Crude Inventories
- Shandong Ports: Commercial crude inventories at Shandong ports decreased to 660,000 tonnes on 19 Mar, down 120,000 tonnes or 15% from the previous week.
- Crude Inflows: Ports received 510,000 tonnes of crude in the past week, with varying amounts distributed to Qingdao, Longkou, and Laizhou ports.
LPG Supply Outlook
- April LPG Tightness: LPG supply is expected to be tighter in April due to fewer suppliers entering turnarounds, with Saudi Armco not increasing its butane supply.
- BD Prices: Asia BD prices may find support due to increased demand from the US and Europe, but a meaningful rebound is unlikely due to weak demand in the downstream synthetic rubber market.
Upstream Developments
- CNOOC Deepwater Gas Discovery: CNOOC discovered a deepwater gas reservoir in the South China Sea, indicating promising drilling prospects in the Qiongdongnan Basin.
- CNPC Shale Gas Drilling: CNPC plans to drill over 50 shale gas wells in the Changning block, targeting 1.0bcm of shale gas production in 2015.
Legal Action
- Former DOC Chief: The former CEO of Malaysia's Daya Offshore Construction (DOC) filed a legal action against the company, alleging breach of a shareholder agreement. The company denies the allegations and will defend the suit.
Analyst Insights
Malaysia and Singapore
- Overall Rating: OVERWEIGHT for the sector, driven by bottom-up investment and stock selection.
- Key Drivers: Rig building, drilling, OSV upcycling, and PETRONAS capital expenditure.
- Top BUYs:
- Malaysia: Bumi Armada, Dialog, SAKP, Perisai, Perdana
- Singapore: SembCorp Marine, Ezion, Mermaid, Nam Cheong
PetroVietnam GAS (GAS VN)
- Rating: BUY
- Target Price: VND103,000
- Reason: The state's gas-based energy expansion plan will increase demand for natural gas.
- Upcoming Projects: LNG imports starting in 2017 to address gas supply shortages and serve industrial clients.
Perisai Petroleum (PPT MK)
- Rating: BUY
- Target Price: MYR1.95
- Catalysts: Acquisition of an OSV for USD7m, securing charters for E3 and MOPU, and a contract for its 1st JU rig.
NewOcean Energy (342 HK)
- Rating: BUY
- Target Price: HKD8.88
- Performance: Reported core net earnings of HKD782.8m, 4% and 5% above estimates. Total income surged to HKD827.6m due to exchange rate gain.
- Gross Profit: LPG still accounts for 96% of gross profit, with improved sales mix leading to a 150bps increase in GPM.
- LNG Expansion: Entering the auto LNG business with 12 service stations in Guangdong and a JV to convert 1,000 buses from diesel to LNG.
Valuation Comparison
Asia Oil & Gas Valuation
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price 19-Mar | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USDm) | P/E (2013E) | P/E (2014E) | EV/EBITDA (2013E) | EV/EBITDA (2014E) | RoE % | P/B (X) | Yield % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | NR | 7.69 | NR | 219.0 | 87.3 | 10.8 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 11.3 | 1.0 | 5.1 |
| Sinopoe - H | 386 HK | NR | 6.68 | NR | 96.2 | 106.2 | 9.0 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 12.5 | 1.1 | 4.1 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | NR | 11.76 | NR | 67.6 | 112.9 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 18.8 | 1.2 | 4.3 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 313.80 | NR | 43.8 | 15.5 | 11.1 | 10.2 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 16.8 | 1.8 | 3.0 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 903.00 | NR | 47.6 | 43.3 | 12.7 | 12.5 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 11.9 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | buy | 331.00 | 443.00 | 10.3 | 12.1 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 25.1 | 1.3 | 3.5 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 448.20 | NR | 5.3 | 8.3 | 17.2 | 15.4 | 7.3 | 8.6 | 11.5 | 1.9 | 2.5 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 291.90 | NR | 1.6 | 5.1 | 19.7 | 10.6 | 12.5 | 10.2 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 2.9 |
| Petronas Gas | PTG MK | hold | 23.08 | 20.20 | 13.9 | 3.9 | 22.0 | 27.5 | 17.6 | 14.9 | 21.4 | 4.4 | 2.4 |
| Gas Malaysia | GMB MK | hold | 3.61 | 3.90 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 27.0 | 23.6 | 17.2 | 14.5 | 17.0 | 4.6 | 3.7 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | buy | 14.00 | 15.90 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 35.0 | 40.0 | 13.8 | 10.8 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| Phoenix Petroleum | PNX PM | buy | 5.08 | 7.22 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 11.5 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 12.7 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| PTT Global Chemical | PTTGC TB | buy | 70.50 | 87.00 | 9.8 | 26.1 | 9.6 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 14.4 | 1.3 | 3.7 |
| PTT PCL | PTT TB | buy | 290.00 | 395.00 | 25.6 | 33.7 | 8.8 | 7.0 | 10.2 | 11.1 | 21.4 | 1.2 | 3.9 |
| Thai Oil PCL | TOP TB | sell | 52.50 | 65.00 | 3.3 | 7.3 | 10.3 | 9.2 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 11.7 | 1.2 | 5.9 |
Asian Oil & Gas Average
- Valuation Metrics: Average P/E and EV/EBITDA are weighted by market capitalization.
- Key Companies: Includes CNOOC, Cairn India, INTEX, JAPEX, JX Holding, Showa Shell, Tenon General, Idemitsu, Cosmo, BPCL, HPCL, and others.
Asia Oil Service Valuation
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price 19-Mar | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USDm) | P/E (2013E) | P/E (2014E) | EV/EBITDA (2013E) | EV/EBITDA (2014E) | RoE % | P/B (X) | Yield % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bumi Armada | BAB MK | buy | 3.87 | 5.00 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 26.3 | 18.6 | 13.8 | 14.3 | 15.2 | 6.1 | 1.0 |
| Dialog | DLG MK | buy | 3.44 | 3.90 | 2.5 | 4.6 | 42.6 | 29.2 | 27.4 | 25.8 | 15.2 | 6.1 | 1.0 |
| Perisai Petroleum | PPT MK | buy | 1.50 | 1.95 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 20.6 | 17.9 | 12.4 | 24.0 | 9.7 | 1.6 | 0.0 |
| Perdana Petroleum | PETR MK | buy | 1.82 | 2.55 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 21.0 | 14.2 | 10.9 | 10.6 | 12.1 | 2.4 | 0.0 |
| SapuraKencana | SAKP MK | buy | 4.21 | 5.30 | 7.7 | 12.1 | 40.2 | 26.3 | 17.7 | 17.5 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 0.0 |
| UMW O&G | UMWOG MK | buy | 4.10 | 5.15 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 35.9 | 31.5 | 18.7 | 19.4 | 12.4 | 4.3 | 0.0 |
| Wah Seong | WSC MK | hold | 1.91 | 1.33 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 45.8 | 17.7 | 9.3 | 10.7 | 8.0 | 1.2 | 3.7 |
| Yinson | YNS MK | buy | 8.92 | 10.10 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 51.6 | 40.5 | 31.5 | 12.0 | 15.4 | 6.4 | 0.3 |
Global Oil Major Average
- Valuation Metrics: Includes companies like Exxon Mobile, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Shell, BP plc, Gasprom, Rosneft Oil, Lukoil, MOL, Petroleo Brasileiro, Eni, Repsol, Stateoil, OMV, Galp Energia.
- Key Metrics: P/E, EV/EBITDA, RoE, and P/B are all weighted by market capitalization.
Key Information
- Refining Margins: Improved for Shengli crude refiners due to higher gasoil prices.
- Crude Inventories: Declined at Shandong ports, affecting supply dynamics.
- LPG Supply: Expected to be tighter in April, with no increase in butane supply from Saudi Armco.
- Upstream Activities: CNOOC and CNPC made significant discoveries and drilling plans in the South China Sea and Sichuan province, respectively.
- Legal Issues: Former DOC chief filed a lawsuit, which the company denies and will vigorously defend.
- Valuation Trends: Companies like PetroVietnam GAS, Perisai Petroleum, and NewOcean Energy were rated as BUY, with target prices and positive outlooks.
- Market Outlook: The sector is viewed as OVERWEIGHT, with a focus on bottom-up strategies and specific investment opportunities.
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