20140609-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_570kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 09 June 2014
Core Content
This document provides an overview of the regional oil and gas market on 09 June 2014, highlighting key price movements, news headlines, and analyst reports from various countries in Asia and beyond.
Major Oil & Gas Prices and Indexes
The following are the closing prices and changes for key oil and gas benchmarks as of 06 June 2014:
| Product | Bloomberg Ticker | Units | Last Price | Dollar Chg. 1D | 1D Change | 1W Change | 1M Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil (Brent) | COA COMDTY | USD/bbl. | 108.66 | -0.13 | -0.1% | -0.7% | 2.0% |
| Crude Oil (WTI) | CLA COMDTY | USD/bbl. | 102.66 | 0.18 | 0.2% | 0.0% | 4.1% |
| Dubai Fateh Spot | PGCRDUBA Index | USD/bbl. | 105.31 | 0.99 | 0.9% | -1.0% | 1.1% |
| China Daqing Spot | APCRDAQG Index | USD/bbl. | 107.48 | 1.04 | 1.0% | -2.6% | -1.0% |
| NYMEX Henry Hub | NGA COMDTY | USD/MMBtu | 4.71 | 0.01 | 0.2% | 3.7% | -2.2% |
| LNG Northeast Asia CFR | JKMSGM1 Index | USD/MMBtu | 13.80 | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -4.8% |
| Singapore 92 RON Spot | MOGFM92S Index | USD/bbl. | 116.24 | -0.51 | -0.4% | -1.6% | 2.5% |
| Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot | GASL500P Index | USD/bbl. | 119.48 | 1.08 | 0.9% | -1.4% | -2.0% |
| 3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot | N6SH180S Index | USD/mt | 607.35 | 4.37 | 0.7% | -1.4% | 1.1% |
| Gold | XAU CURNCY | USD/Oz | 1,253.23 | -0.40 | 0.0% | 0.3% | -4.2% |
| USD-CNY | USDCNY CURNCY | Fx rate | 6.25 | -0.00 | -0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| DJI | DJI INDEX | Index | 16,924.28 | 88.17 | 0.5% | 1.2% | 3.2% |
| S&P 500 | SPX INDEX | Index | 1,949.44 | 8.98 | 0.5% | 1.3% | 4.4% |
News Headlines
- China May crude net imports down as refineries begin turnarounds: China's May net crude import volume dropped to 26.08m tonnes due to the shutdown of 3.93m tonnes of refining capacity for maintenance.
- CNOOC commences operations at China's first deepwater gas terminal: CNOOC began operations at the Gaolan terminal in Zhuhai, with a design daily process capacity of 1,000 tonnes of LPG.
- Malaysia's Tanjung in talks to acquire vessel stakes: Tanjung Offshore is in talks to acquire marine assets from parties including Bourbon Far East Pte Ltd and Indonesian O&G players.
- Bangladesh sets USD285m budget for O&G development in FY2014-2015: The government has allocated USD285m for O&G developments, with the plan to be finalized by 30 June.
- Ukraine to store 13bcm of gas by end June: Ukraine plans to store 13bcm of gas to prepare for potential supply disruptions.
- Etherified C4 supply is tight in Hainan, China: Supply of etherified C4 is tight due to CNOOC Dongfang Petrochemical's shutdown.
- Sinopec Jingmen Petchem to trim crude throughput by 1.83% in June: The facility reduced throughput to 380,000 tonnes due to the shutdown of its catalytic cracker.
Our Latest Reports
- Phoenix Petroleum Philippines - Taking competition in stride (BUY, TP PHP7.05): Maintain BUY with a revised target price of PHP7.05, reflecting lower-than-expected 1Q14 volume sales.
- KNM Group - Reformed and ready to grow (BUY, TP MYR1.00): Initiate BUY with a target price of MYR1.00, based on a 13x FY15 P/E ratio.
- UMW Holdings - Improving outlook (BUY, TP MYR12.44): Reiterate BUY with an unchanged target price of MYR12.44, as fundamentals remain strong.
Valuation Comparison (Asia Oil & Gas)
The following table outlines the valuation metrics for key Asian oil and gas companies as of 06 June 2014:
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price 06-Jun | Target Price | Mkt Cap USD | 90D T/O USDm | P/E (X) 2013 | P/E (X) 2014E | EV/EBITDA (X) 2013 | EV/EBITDA (X) 2014E | RoE % | P/B (X) | Yield % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | NR | 9.37 | NR | 219.2 | 88.6 | 10.5 | 10.3 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 11.8 | 1.2 | 4.3 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | NR | 7.14 | NR | 97.0 | 93.8 | 9.9 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 12.2 | 1.1 | 4.2 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | NR | 13.16 | NR | 75.8 | 97.7 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 17.3 | 1.3 | 4.3 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 465.65 | NR | 67.6 | 36.9 | 16.4 | 12.4 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 16.8 | 2.6 | 2.0 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 1,122.40 | NR | 61.5 | 77.0 | 15.8 | 13.6 | 13.0 | 10.4 | 11.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | buy | 374.70 | 443.00 | 12.1 | 17.0 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 25.1 | 1.5 | 3.1 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 628.10 | NR | 7.7 | 15.8 | 24.1 | 17.0 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 11.5 | 2.7 | 1.8 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 455.80 | NR | 2.6 | 11.7 | 30.8 | 11.8 | 13.2 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| Petronas Gas | PTG MK | hold | 24.26 | 23.50 | 15.0 | 5.5 | 23.1 | 28.9 | 18.0 | 15.6 | 21.4 | 4.7 | 2.3 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | buy | 11.98 | 15.90 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 30.0 | 34.2 | 12.9 | 10.1 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Phoenix Petroleum Philippines | PNX PM | buy | 6.44 | 7.22 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 14.6 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 7.5 | 12.7 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| PTT Global Chemical PCL | PTTGC TB | buy | 67.00 | 87.00 | 9.3 | 24.4 | 9.1 | 8.1 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 14.4 | 1.3 | 2.4 |
| PTT PCL | PTT TB | buy | 298.00 | 395.00 | 26.2 | 34.7 | 9.0 | 7.2 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 14.7 | 1.2 | 4.0 |
| Thai Oil PCL | TOP TB | sell | 50.25 | 65.00 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 9.9 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 11.7 | 1.1 | 4.6 |
| PetroVietnam Gas | GAS VN | buy | 100,000 | 103,000.00 | 8.9 | 1.8 | 16.4 | 15.0 | 10.2 | 9.4 | 40.8 | 5.6 | 5.7 |
| Asian Refiners average | - | - | - | - | - | - | 21.3 | 16.5 | 12.7 | 10.9 | 8.9 | 1.6 | 2.9 |
| Exxon Mobile | XOM US | NR | 101.60 | NR | 436.3 | 1,013.1 | 13.8 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 19.2 | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| Chevron | CVX US | NR | 124.19 | NR | 236.4 | 679.5 | 11.1 | 11.6 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 15.0 | 1.6 | 3.1 |
| ConocoPhillips | COP US | NR | 80.84 | NR | 99.2 | 403.8 | 10.9 | 12.7 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 18.3 | 1.9 | 3.3 |
| Shell | RDSA LN | NR | 2,361.50 | NR | 257.2 | 17,550.1 | 14.2 | 10.9 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 9.2 | 1.4 | 4.9 |
| BP plc | BP / LN | NR | 505.00 | NR | 156.4 | 21,280.9 | 6.4 | 10.6 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 18.9 | 1.2 | 4.6 |
| Gazprom | GAZP RX | NR | 143.97 | NR | 98.9 | 259.7 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 13.0 | 0.4 | 5.2 |
| Bangchang Petroleum | BCP TB | buy | 29.50 | 41.00 | 1.2 | 3.2 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 13.9 | 1.2 | 4.6 |
| LUKOIL | LKOH RX | NR | 2,030.60 | NR | 50.1 | 77.0 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 10.3 | 0.6 | 6.0 |
| MOL Hunarian O&G | MOL HB | NR | 12,955.00 | NR | 6.1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Petroleo Brasileiro | PETR3 BZ | NR | 16.67 | NR | 99.2 | 82.4 | 9.2 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Analysts
- Howard Wong (HK/CHINA): Contact details provided.
- Jigar Shah (INDIA): Contact details provided.
- Pandu Anugrah (INDONESIA): Contact details provided.
- Liaw Thong Jung (MALAYSIA): Contact details provided.
- Bianca Solema (PHILIPPINES): Contact details provided.
- Laura Dy-Liacco (PHILIPPINES): Contact details provided.
- Yeast Chee Keong (SINGAPORE): Contact details provided.
- Sutthichai Kumworachai (THAILAND): Contact details provided.
- Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (VIETNAM): Contact details provided.
- Truong Quang Binh (VIETNAM): Contact details provided.
Asia Oil Service Valuation Comparison
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price 06-Jun | Target Price | Mkt Cap USD | 90D T/O USDm | P/E (X) 2013 | P/E (X) 2014E | EV/EBITDA (X) 2013 | EV/EBITDA (X) 2014E | RoE % | P/B (X) | Yield % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anton Oilfield Services | 3337 HK | NR | 5.74 | NR | 1.6 | 6.1 | 25.6 | 22.2 | 12.7 | 10.3 | 18.0 | 4.2 | 1.2 |
| China Oilfield Services-H | 2883 HK | NR | 19.64 | NR | 12.4 | 24.5 | 10.4 | 10.1 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 19.3 | 1.9 | 2.8 |
| Chu Kong Petroleum | 1938 HK | NR | 2.82 | NR | 0.4 | 0.7 | 55.9 | 21.0 | 24.6 | 15.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| Hilong Holding | 1623 HK | NR | 4.57 | NR | 1.0 | 4.6 | 17.5 | 12.6 | 8.2 | 6.8 | 14.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| Honghua Group | 196 HK | NR | 1.84 | NR | 0.8 | 2.5 | 8.6 | 7.1 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 11.7 | 1.0 | 3.3 |
| Sinopec Engineering-H | 2386 HK | NR | 9.08 | NR | 5.2 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 26.1 | 1.5 | 4.5 |
| SPT Energy | 1251 HK | NR | 4.83 | NR | 1.0 | 2.8 | 19.4 | 16.0 | 9.2 | 7.0 | 17.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| Alam Maritim | AMRB MK | buy | 1.56 | 1.90 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 16.6 | 12.8 | 14.5 | 15.0 | 13.1 | 2.1 | 0.2 |
| Barakah Petroleum | BARAKAH MK | buy | 1.62 | 1.85 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 19.1 | 19.5 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 27.0 | 4.5 | 0.0 |
| Bumi Armada | BAB MK | buy | 3.54 | 4.55 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 24.1 | 22.0 | 11.4 | 12.8 | 10.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| Coastal Contracts | COCO MK | NR | 4.82 | NR | 0.8 | 1.0 | 15.4 | 12.5 | 9.6 | 7.0 | 16.4 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| Daya Materials | DAYA MK | NR | 0.31 | NR | 0.1 | 1.4 | 114.8 | 10.0 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| Dayang Enterprise | DEHB MK | NR | 3.57 | NR | 0.9 | 1.0 | 29.6 | 14.1 | 10.2 | 9.1 | 23.6 | 4.4 | 1.6 |
| Dialog | DLG MK | buy | 3.67 | 3.90 | 2.8 | 5.0 | 45.5 | 31.1 | 30.4 | 27.6 | 15.2 | 6.5 | 0.9 |
| KNM | KNMG MK | buy | 0.80 | 1.00 | 0.4 | 5.8 | 49.1 | 18.2 | 11.9 | 8.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| MMHE | MMHE MK | buy | 3.75 | 4.20 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 25.3 | 34.4 | 19.2 | 21.1 | 9.3 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| Muhibbah Engineering | MUHI MK | NR | 2.93 | NR | 0.4 | 1.6 | 14.2 | 10.9 | 9.0 | 7.9 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| Perdana Petroleum | PETR MK | buy | 1.79 | 2.55 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 20.7 | 13.7 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 12.1 | 2.3 | 0.0 |
| Perisai Petroleum | PPT MK | buy | 1.57 | 1.76 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 21.5 | 25.7 | 17.2 | 27.0 | 10.4 | 1.9 | 0.0 |
| Petra Energy | PENB MK | NR | 2.80 | NR | 0.3 | 0.2 | 76.7 | 25.9 | 12.6 | 10.2 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.4 |
| SapurakKencana | SAKP MK | buy | 4.04 | 5.30 | 7.6 | 11.8 | 38.5 | 22.3 | 31.1 | 18.5 | 13.8 | 3.2 | 0.0 |
| TH Heavy Engineering | RH MK | NR | 0.89 | NR | 0.3 | 1.4 | 106.6 | 21.6 | 12.7 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 0.0 |
| UMW O&G | UMWOG MK | buy | 4.06 | 5.15 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 35.6 | 31.2 | 18.7 | 19.2 | 12.4 | 3.1 | 0.2 |
| UZMA | UZMA MK | NR | 5.74 | NR | 0.2 | 0.4 | 22.5 | 16.6 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 29.6 | 5.9 | 0.3 |
| Wah Seong | WSC MK | hold | 1.94 | 1.33 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 46.5 | 18.0 | 9.1 | 10.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Yinson | YNS MK | buy | 5.12 | 6.44 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 46.4 | 23.3 | 53.2 | 17.1 | - | - | - |
Summary
The regional oil and gas market on 09 June 2014 showed mixed price movements, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 rising slightly, while Brent and WTI crude oils remained flat. Key news included a drop in China's crude imports due to refinery maintenance, the launch of CNOOC's deepwater gas terminal, and budget allocations in Bangladesh and Ukraine. Analysts highlighted several stocks, including Phoenix Petroleum Philippines, KNM Group, and UMW Holdings, with BUY ratings and revised target prices. Valuation comparisons across Asia showed varying price-to-earnings and enterprise value-to-EBITDA ratios, indicating different market sentiments and investment potentials.
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