20140326-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_567kb

报告摘要

Regional Oil & Gas Summary

Core Content

This summary provides an overview of recent developments and market analysis in the oil and gas sector across Asia, with a focus on China, Malaysia, Singapore, India, and Vietnam. It includes news headlines, analyst ratings, and valuation comparisons for key players in the industry.

Key News Headlines

China's Crude Oil Inventories Rise by 4.3% in February:
- The increase in crude oil inventories may indicate weaker demand due to reduced production and lower imports compared to the previous month.
China Agrees to Buy Over USD350 Billion Worth of Crude from Russia:
- This agreement highlights a growing trade relationship between China and Russia, with China importing 2.72mmbbl of crude from Russia in February, a seven-year high.
Malaysia to Spend MYR60 Billion on Upstream Development:
- Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak announced plans to increase upstream capital expenditure over the next five years.
Weak Demand for Oil Products in China:
- Oil product inventories increased by 15.1% MoM in February, but refinery utilization was low, suggesting weak demand. The Lunar New Year holiday and bad weather were cited as contributing factors.
CNOOC's Deep-Water Vessel Enters Pilot Run:
- CNOOC plans to mobilize a deep-water multi-purpose subsea construction vessel in the South China Sea, leased from a Norwegian company.
Wartsila Signs Contract for LNG Dual-Fuel Engine:
- A five-cylinder RT-flex50DF engine will power an LNG carrier being built by Qidong Fengshun Ship Heavy Industry, set for completion in August 2015.
Petronas Near Final Investment Decision on Angsi CEOR Project:
- Petronas is close to making a final investment decision on the Angsi chemical enhanced oil recovery project, with potential completion this year.

Analyst Ratings and Target Prices

SapuraKencana Petroleum (SAKP MK):
- Results within range of expectations.
- Target Price: MYR5.30.
- Maintain BUY rating.
Ezion Holdings (EZI SP):
- "Sea of opportunities" for the company.
- Target Price: SGD2.90.
- Maintain BUY rating with a trimmed target price.
Malaysia and Singapore Oil & Gas:
- Maintain OVERWEIGHT rating.
- Top BUYs for Malaysia: Bumi Armada, Dialog, SAKP, Perisai, Perdana.
- Top BUYs for Singapore: SembCorp Marine, Ezion, Mermaid, Nam Cheong.
PetroVietnam GAS (GAS VN):
- Initiate at BUY with a Target Price of VND103,000.
- The state's gas-based energy expansion plan is expected to boost demand for natural gas.
- The company is planning to start importing LNG in 2017 to address gas supply shortages.

Major Oil & Gas Prices and Indexes (25 Mar 2014)

Product	Bloomberg Ticker	Units	Last Price	Absolute Change	1D Change	1W Change	1M Change
Crude Oil (WTI)	CLA COMDTY	USD/bbl.	99.24	-0.36	-0.4%	0.4%	-2.1%
Crude Oil (Brent)	COA COMDTY	USD/bbl.	106.99	0.18	0.2%	0.2%	-2.3%
Dubai Fateh Spot	PGCRDUBA Index	USD/barrel	103.65	0.32	0.3%	0.5%	-2.9%
China Daqing Spot	APCRDAQG Index	USD/barrel	105.35	0.07	0.1%	0.5%	-4.6%
NYMEX Henry Hub	NGA COMDTY	USD/MMBtu	4.40	0.00	3.0%	-1.2%	-12.1%
Singapore 92 RON Spot	MOGFM92S Index	USD/barrel	116.53	0.00	0.0%	-0.2%	-0.6%
Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot	GASL500P Index	USD/gallon	122.32	0.72	0.6%	1.4%	-2.6%
3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot	N6SH180S Index	USD/mt	605.81	0.51	0.1%	0.1%	-2.5%
Gold	XAU CURNCY	USD/Oz	1,310.43	1.67	0.1%	-3.3%	-1.0%
USD-JPY	USDJPY CURNCY	Fx rate	102.28	0.04	0.0%	0.8%	-0.2%
USD-EUR	USDEUR CURNCY	Fx rate	0.72	0.00	0.1%	0.8%	-0.6%
USD-CNY	USDCNY CURNCY	Fx rate	6.20	0.01	0.1%	0.1%	1.8%
DJI	DJI INDEX	Index	16,367.88	91.19	0.6%	0.2%	1.6%
S&P 500	SPX INDEX	Index	1,865.62	8.18	0.4%	-0.4%	1.6%
30Y T-Bill	USGG30YR INDEX	Yield	3.59	0.03	0.8%	-0.6%	-2.8%

Asia Oil & Gas Valuation Comparison

Company	Ticker	KE Rating	Price 25-Mar	Target Price	Mkt Cap (USD)	90D T/O (USD)	P/E (2013E)	P/E (2014E)	EV/EBITDA (2013E)	EV/EBITDA (2014E)	RoE (%)	P/B (X)	Yield (%)
PetroChina - H	857 HK	NR	8.22	NR	222.9	91.8	9.2	9.0	6.0	5.1	11.8	1.0	4.9
Sinopec - H	386 HK	NR	6.86	NR	98.5	111.9	9.5	8.4	5.3	4.7	12.2	1.1	4.4
CNOOC LTD	883 HK	NR	11.96	NR	68.8	113.0	6.7	6.9	3.3	3.2	18.9	1.2	4.2
ONGC	ONGC IN	NR	319.90	NR	45.4	17.0	11.3	10.3	6.2	4.7	16.8	1.8	3.0
Reliance Industries	RIL IN	NR	879.30	NR	47.2	45.9	12.4	12.2	9.8	9.3	11.9	1.4	1.0
Cairn India	CAIR IN	buy	332.55	443.00	10.5	12.0	5.3	4.6	3.5	2.9	25.1	1.3	3.5
BPCL	BPCL IN	NR	445.55	NR	5.3	8.5	17.1	15.3	7.3	8.5	11.5	1.9	2.5
HPCL	HPCL IN	NR	290.20	NR	1.6	5.5	19.6	-10.3	12.5	10.2	3.7	0.7	2.9
Petron Corp	PCOR PM	buy	13.88	15.90	2.9	1.0	34.7	39.7	13.8	10.8	5.0	1.4	0.4
Phoenix Petroleum Philippines	PNX PM	buy	5.03	7.22	0.2	0.1	11.4	6.9	8.6	6.6	12.7	1.1	1.6
PetroVietnam Gas	GAS VN	buy	83,500	103,000	7.5	1.7	13.7	12.5	8.6	7.9	40.8	4.7	6.8
Asian Oil & Gas Average	-	-	-	-	-	-	11.4	10.4	7.1	6.1	13.3	1.3	3.9
Exxon Mobile	XOM US	NR	94.91	NR	410.1	1,167.8	12.9	12.7	7.6	5.7	19.2	2.4	2.6
Chevron	CVX US	NR	117.09	NR	223.5	751.9	10.5	10.6	5.5	4.3	15.0	1.5	3.3
ConocoPhillips	COP US	NR	68.39	NR	83.9	344.5	9.2	11.1	5.2	4.5	18.3	1.6	3.9
Shell	RDSA LN	NR	2,177.00	NR	233.4	16,056.0	13.1	10.4	5.3	4.5	8.9	1.1	4.9
BP plc	BP / LN	NR	473.95	NR	144.4	22,253.7	6.0	9.4	5.0	4.3	18.9	1.1	4.9
Gazprom	GAZP RX	NR	127.93	NR	85.1	254.7	2.5	2.7	2.3	2.4	12.7	0.3	5.9
Rosneft Oil	ROSN LI	NR	6.48	NR	68.7	74.1	3.9	5.5	4.3	4.1	20.2	0.7	6.2
LUKOIL	LKOH RX	NR	1,877.30	NR	44.9	86.4	5.7	4.0	3.2	2.6	10.3	0.5	6.6
MOL Hunarian O&G	MOL HB	NR	11,900.00	NR	5.5	4.5	48.7	8.4	4.1	4.1	13.7	0.7	4.0
Petroleo Brasileiro	PETR3 BZ	NR	14.05	NR	80.3	61.7	7.8	6.5	6.6	5.3	6.8	0.5	4.2
Total	FP FP	NR	46.80	NR	153.8	287.4	12.5	9.6	4.7	4.1	11.6	1.5	5.1
Eni S.p.A.	ENI IM	NR	17.88	NR	89.8	308.4	12.5	12.8	4.9	3.7	8.8	1.1	6.2
Rep Sol S.A.	REP SM	NR	17.87	NR	32.7	203.3	13.0	13.0	6.1	5.8	0.7	0.9	5.5
Stateoil ASA	STL NO	NR	169.00	NR	89.4	82.7	13.5	11.2	2.6	2.5	11.8	1.5	4.1
OMV AG	OMV AV	NR	31.94	NR	14.4	13.6	9.0	7.9	3.5	3.4	9.9	0.9	3.9
Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A.	GALP PL	NR	12.15	NR	13.9	19.6	52.8	30.7	13.7	10.8	3.6	2.0	2.4
Global Oil Major Average	-	-	-	-	-	-	13.0	10.3	5.5	4.5	14.0	1.5	4.3

Key Information

China:
- Crude oil inventories increased by 4.3% MoM in February.
- Weak demand for oil products was observed.
- CNOOC is mobilizing a new deep-water vessel.
- China is expected to import significant volumes of crude from Russia.
Malaysia:
- Upstream capital expenditure is forecasted to reach MYR60b over the next five years.
- Petronas is nearing FID on the Angsi CEOR project.
- The country is working on upstream projects in the Malay-Tho Chu basin.
Singapore:
- The oil and gas sector is seen as having potential.
- SembCorp Marine, Ezion, Mermaid, and Nam Cheong are highlighted as top BUYs.
India:
- Cairn India is recommended as a BUY with a target price of SGD443.00.
- ONGC and Reliance Industries are under review.
Vietnam:
- PetroVietnam Gas is recommended as a BUY with a target price of VND103,000.
- The company is planning to import LNG in 2017.

Summary

The oil and gas sector in Asia is experiencing mixed developments, with notable growth in crude oil imports from Russia and increased upstream investments in Malaysia. China's oil product demand remains weak, and the sector is showing signs of transformation with new technologies and projects. Analysts maintain a positive outlook on several companies, recommending BUYs and highlighting their potential for growth. Valuation comparisons indicate varying performance across different regions, with some companies showing strong financial metrics and others under review.

展开完整摘要