20150717-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_372kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary
Core Content Overview
This document provides an overview of the regional oil and gas market as of July 16, 2015, including price movements, recent news, and analyst reports from various countries in Asia and beyond. It highlights key developments in the industry and offers investment insights based on market valuations and company-specific analyses.
Major Price Movements
- Brent Crude Oil: Down $0.20 to USD56.92/b, a 0.4% decrease.
- WTI Crude Oil: Down $0.50 to USD50.91/b, a 1.0% decrease.
- Dubai Fateh Spot: Down $0.46 to USD56.72/b, a 0.8% decrease.
- China Daqing Spot: No change in price, but a 1.1% increase in MYR terms.
- NYMEX Henry Hub: Down $0.06 to USD2.85/MMBtu, a 2.2% decrease.
- LNG Northeast Asia CFR: No change in price, but a 6.0% increase in the past month.
- Singapore 92 RON Spot: Up 1.4% to USD72.77/bbl.
- Gold: Down $4.06 to USD1,145.39/Oz, a 0.4% decrease.
- USD-CNY Exchange Rate: No change at 6.21.
- DJI: Up 70.08 to 18,120.25, a 0.4% increase.
- S&P 500: Up 16.89 to 2,124.29, a 0.8% increase.
Key News Headlines
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Nexen Pipeline Spill in Oil Sands
- Nexen, a CNOOC Canada unit, reported a spill of about 31,500 barrels in the oil sands region, 36 km southeast of Fort McMurray. The Alberta Energy Regulator is investigating the incident.
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BP to Pay Noble in Rig Dispute
- BP must pay the majority of a $136 million award to Noble for a contract dispute over a rig intended to drill in Libya in 2010. The contract was canceled following the Macondo disaster in the US Gulf of Mexico.
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Honghua Secures Iraq Drilling Contract
- Honghua Group, a Chinese oilfield services company, secured a USD26 million drilling contract in Iraq, using two rigs expected to operate in August and September.
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Ineos Close to Settlement with Sinopec
- Ineos is close to reaching a settlement with Sinopec over an intellectual property dispute regarding an acrylonitrile plant. Acrylonitrile is used in hard plastics and carbon fiber.
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China Benefits from Iran Deal
- The Iran nuclear deal is expected to increase China's ability to import Iranian oil, easing tensions between Beijing and Washington. China had previously reduced its imports to avoid US sanctions.
Analyst Reports
Malaysia Oil & Gas
- Iran Agreement with P5+1: Iran may add 200k-700k bpd of oil to the market once sanctions are lifted. Maybank KE recommends a NEUTRAL rating, with BUY for Yinson, Bumi Armada, Dialog, and KNM.
- SapuraKencana Petroleum: Bags a USD273 million turnkey job from ONGC. Maybank KE maintains a HOLD rating with a target price of MYR2.80.
- Petronas Chemicals: Petroleums ASPs are down 25% YTD in USD and 13% in MYR. Maybank KE recommends HOLD with a revised target price of MYR6.60.
- NewOcean Energy: Reiterated BUY rating with a target price of HKD7.70, implying a 105% upside. The company is expected to meet its FY15 projections.
Other Asian Markets
- Philippines: Petron Corp and Phoenix Petro are rated BUY.
- Thailand: PTT Global Chemical PCL and PTT PCL are rated BUY, while Thai Oil PCL is rated Sell.
- Vietnam: PetroVietnam Gas is rated Buy.
- India: Cairn India is rated Hold.
- Japan: Several companies are rated NR (Not Rated), with varying price and valuation data.
Market Valuations and Multiples
| Company | Ticker | Maybank KE Rating | Price (16-Jul) | Target Price | Market Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USDm) | PER 2015E | PER 2016E | EV/EBITDA 2015E | EV/EBITDA 2016E | ROE % 2015E | P/BV 2015E | Yield % 2015E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | Sell | 8.01 | 8.30 | 371.3 | 151.7 | 23.3 | 14.5 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 1.9 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | Hold | 6.20 | 7.70 | 129.8 | 130.9 | 17.2 | 12.1 | 6.8 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 1.0 | 2.9 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | Buy | 10.12 | 16.80 | 58.3 | 119.2 | 14.7 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 6.3 | 0.9 | 2.4 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 291.6 | NR | 39.3 | 20.3 | 10.5 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 13.3 | 1.3 | 3.4 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 1,023.7 | NR | 52.2 | 63.9 | 13.7 | 12.7 | 11.5 | 10.0 | 11.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | Hold | 169.0 | 198.00 | 5.0 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 7.4 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 11.7 | 0.5 | 5.4 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 938.0 | NR | 10.7 | 20.4 | 21.6 | 13.2 | 10.7 | 8.0 | 15.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 868.9 | NR | 4.6 | 17.4 | 22.2 | 13.7 | 9.8 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| S-Oil | 010950 KS | NR | 62,200 | NR | 6.1 | 25.8 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 15.1 | 1.3 | 2.7 |
| SK Innovation | 096770 KS | NR | 107,500 | NR | 8.7 | 46.6 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 7.9 | 0.6 | 2.4 |
| GS Holdings | 078930 KS | NR | 48,750 | NR | 3.9 | 15.7 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 10.9 | 10.4 | 7.9 | 0.7 | 2.5 |
| PTT Global Chemical PCL | PTTGC TB | Buy | 68.50 | 87.00 | 9.0 | 26.0 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 7.3 | 6.6 | 11.6 | 1.2 | 4.1 |
| PTT PCL | PTT TB | Buy | 339.0 | 395.00 | 28.3 | 49.6 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 16.7 | 13.7 | 11.7 | 1.3 | 3.6 |
| Thai Oil PCL | TOP TB | Sell | 54.8 | 65.00 | 3.3 | 10.7 | 10.4 | 10.2 | 6.7 | 6.4 | 12.5 | 1.2 | 4.3 |
| Asian Refiners Average | - | - | - | - | - | - | 13.9 | 12.7 | -21.5 | 9.2 | 7.2 | 1.7 | 2.9 |
| Asian Oil & Gas Average | - | - | - | - | - | - | 18.8 | 13.3 | 3.5 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 1.2 | 2.3 |
Oil-Service Valuations
| Company | Ticker | Maybank KE Rating | Price (16-Jul) | Target Price | Market Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USDm) | PER 2015E | PER 2016E | EV/EBITDA 2015E | EV/EBITDA 2016E | ROE % 2015E | P/BV 2015E | Yield % 2015E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COSL | 2883 HK | NR | 10.50 | NR | 11.1 | 35.2 | 11.4 | 9.4 | 10.3 | 9.1 | 7.7 | 0.8 | 2.5 |
| SapuraKencana | SAKP MK | Hold | 2.37 | 2.80 | 3.7 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 15.8 | 10.2 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Yinson | YNS MK | Buy | 3.08 | 4.35 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 22.3 | 19.8 | 15.1 | 15.7 | 13.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 |
| Bumi Armada | BAB MK | Buy | 1.07 | 1.60 | 1.6 | 3.8 | 15.1 | 13.2 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| Dialog | DLG MK | Buy | 1.58 | 1.90 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 31.1 | 29.2 | 25.4 | 25.4 | 14.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 |
| KNM | KNMG MK | Buy | 0.58 | 1.00 | 0.3 | 4.3 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| MMHE | MMHE MK | Hold | 1.15 | 1.32 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 13.3 | 15.4 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| Yinson | YNS MK | Buy | 3.08 | 4.35 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 22.3 | 19.8 | 15.1 | 15.7 | 13.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | Buy | 8.25 | 11.25 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 18.8 | 11.2 | 8.3 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Phoenix Petroleum | PNX PM | Buy | 3.32 | 5.00 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 12.9 | 0.6 | 3.0 |
| PTT E&P | PTTEP TB | Buy | 98.25 | 188 | 11.4 | 23.2 | 13.7 | 11.2 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 6.8 | 1.6 | 0.0 |
| PTT Global Chemical PCL | PTTGC TB | Buy | 68.50 | 87.00 | 9.0 | 26.0 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 7.3 | 6.6 | 11.6 | 1.2 | 4.1 |
| PetroVietnam Gas | GAS VN | Buy | 62,000 | 92,000 | 5.4 | 1.1 | 11.9 | 10.9 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 26.1 | 2.9 | 5.1 |
| Asian E&P Average | - | - | - | - | - | - | 16.1 | 13.8 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 8.2 | 1.3 | 2.7 |
Summary of Key Points
- Price Movements: Brent and WTI crude prices fell slightly, while some regional benchmarks showed mixed trends.
- News Highlights: Pipeline spills, contract disputes, and new drilling contracts are key developments affecting the industry.
- Analyst Ratings: Companies like CNOOC LTD, Petron Corp, and Phoenix Petroleum are rated Buy, while others like Thai Oil PCL are rated Sell.
- Valuation Metrics: Market valuations are presented in terms of price, target price, market cap, and various financial multiples such as PER and EV/EBITDA.
- Market Outlook: Analysts suggest a NEUTRAL stance for Iran-related investments, while emphasizing the potential for growth in certain Asian markets.
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