20150706-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_374kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 6 Jul 2015
Core Content
This summary provides an overview of the regional oil and gas market as of 6 July 2015, including price movements, key news, and analyst reports on various companies across Asia, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and others. The information highlights the performance of oil prices, stock movements, and the financial outlook of major players in the industry.
Key Price Movements
- Brent Crude Oil: Down by 2.8% to USD60.32/b, with a -5.2% drop in the last month.
- WTI Crude Oil: No change at USD56.93/b, with a -7.5% decline in the last month.
- Dubai Fateh Spot: Down by 1.1% to USD60.52/b, with a -4.3% decline in the last month.
- China Daqing Spot: Down by 0.9% to USD56.46/b, with a -7.7% decline in the last month.
- NYMEX Henry Hub: No change at USD2.82/MMBtu, with a 3.6% increase in the last month.
- LNG Northeast Asia CFR: Down by 0.9% to USD7.27/MMBtu, with a -6.0% decline in the last month.
- Singapore 92 RON Spot: No change at USD74.54/b, with a -6.9% decline in the last month.
- Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot: Down by 0.8% to USD75.20/b, with a -6.2% decline in the last month.
- 3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot: Down by 1.9% to USD338.17/mt, with a -9.5% decline in the last month.
- Gold: Up by 0.2% to USD1,168.70/Oz, with a -2.0% decline in the last month.
- USD-CNY Exchange Rate: No change at 6.21, with a 0.1% decline in the last month.
- DJI: No change at 17,730.11, with a -1.6% decline in the last month.
- S&P 500: No change at 2,076.78, with a -1.6% decline in the last month.
Major News Headlines
- PetroChina Share Surge: Despite the broader market decline, PetroChina shares surged 12% this week, indicating potential state-backed support. This contrasts with the -11% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index.
- BP Deepwater Horizon Settlement: BP agreed to a $18.7bn settlement, ending all litigation over the 2010 disaster, and plans to continue with ambitious projects in the Gulf of Mexico.
- Engie's LNG Supply Deal: French company Engie signed a $110.77 million deal to supply LNG to Beijing Gas Group, with three cargoes of 150,000 cubic metres planned for winter delivery.
- Russia's Second Pipeline to China: Russia plans a second oil pipeline to Chinese refineries, increasing its position as the leading oil supplier to China.
- Asia Oil Refining Margins: Asia's oil refining margins hit a 2015 low, expected to fall another 20-30% this quarter due to Middle East supply and declining diesel profits.
- Global Shale Industry Leadership: Argentina and China continue to lead the global shale industry, with China drilling over 200 wells and Argentina over 300 wells in the last two years.
Our Latest Reports
- Petronas Chemicals: Maintain HOLD, with target price raised to MYR6.60 from MYR5.35, due to promising ASPs and weaker MYR against USD.
- NewOcean Energy: Reiterate BUY rating, with a target price of HKD7.70, implying a 105% upside. Volume and margin are on track for FY15 projections.
- Trans-Asia Oil & Energy Development: Maintain BUY rating, with valuations considered attractive. Earnings are expected to more than triple in 2016 with the operation of the 2 x 135 MW coal-fired power plant.
- Gas Malaysia: Maintain HOLD rating, with a target price lowered to MYR2.65 (a -12% reduction), as the FY15 spread guidance increased but fell from the previous base.
Key Companies and Ratings
| Company | Ticker | Maybank KE Rating | Price (3-Jul) | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USDm) | PER (2015E) | PER (2016E) | EV/EBITDA (2015E) | EV/EBITDA (2016E) | ROE % | P/BV (x) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | Sell | 8.67 | 8.30 | 332.2 | 165.3 | 25.2 | 15.7 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | Hold | 6.59 | 7.70 | 125.6 | 141.2 | 18.3 | 12.9 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 1.0 | 2.7 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | Buy | 11.02 | 16.80 | 63.5 | 131.9 | 16.0 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 6.3 | 1.0 | 2.2 |
Oil-Service Valuations
| Company | Ticker | Maybank KE Rating | Price (3-Jul) | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USDm) | PER (2015E) | PER (2016E) | EV/EBITDA (2015E) | EV/EBITDA (2016E) | ROE % | P/BV (x) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barakah Offshore | BARAKAH MK | Buy | 0.91 | 1.15 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 11.2 | 8.1 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 18.1 | 1.6 | 0.0 |
| Bumi Armada | BAB MK | Buy | 1.15 | 1.60 | 1.8 | 4.2 | 16.2 | 14.2 | 9.1 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| Dialog | DLG MK | Buy | 1.61 | 1.90 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 31.7 | 29.7 | 25.8 | 25.9 | 14.1 | 4.0 | 1.4 |
| KNM | KNMG MK | Buy | 0.61 | 1.00 | 0.3 | 4.4 | 8.7 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Perdana Petroleum | PETR MK | Buy | 1.54 | 1.70 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 19.2 | 9.2 | 14.2 | 9.3 | 8.6 | 1.6 | 0.0 |
| Yinson | YNS MK | Buy | 3.06 | 4.35 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 22.2 | 19.7 | 15.1 | 15.6 | 13.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
Analyst Contacts
- HK/CHINA: Howard Wong (852) 22680648, howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
- INDIA: Jigar Shah (91) 226623 2632, jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
- INDONESIA: Pandu Anugrah (62) 21 2557 1137, pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
- MALAYSIA: Liaw Thong Jung (603) 22978688, tjiaw@maybank-ib.com
- PHILIPPINES: Michael Bengson (63) 28498840, micheal_bengson@maybank-atrke.com
- SINGAPORE: Yeah Chee Keong (65) 6231 5842, yeakcheekeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
- THAILAND: Sutthichai Kumworachai (66) 2658 6300 x 1400, sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
- VIETNAM: Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (84) 844555888 x 8082, chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn<br>Truong Quang Binh (84) 444555888 x 8087, binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Notes
- LNG Northeast Asia CFR is based on ICAP's JKL 1-month forward price for LNG to Platts' assessment of the spot physical LNG market.
- All forward-looking estimates and multiples for companies not under MayBank Kim Eng's coverage are from Bloomberg consensus.
- Average multiples and yields are weighted by market capitalization.
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