20140410-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_572kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary - April 10, 2014
Core Content Overview
This document provides an update on the regional oil and gas market, including news headlines, analyst insights, and valuation comparisons for key companies across Asia, including China, India, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam, as well as global players like ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Shell.
Key News Highlights
- China Crude Oil Imports: China is expected to import about 7% less crude oil in 2Q14 due to refinery turnarounds. Refiners like Sinopec and PetroChina will reduce their refining throughput by 4% and 3% respectively.
- Kerosene Output Increase: China's kerosene production increased by 22.8% YoY in February, with a high output ratio of 5.74% attributed to strong jet fuel demand during the Lunar New Year.
- Fuel Oil Supply Decline: Northern China's fuel oil supply is projected to decline by 6.1% in April due to refinery maintenance.
- China-Russia Gas Deal: The Crimea crisis has accelerated negotiations for a gas supply deal between China and Russia, with talks resuming in Beijing.
- Seadrill's Share Sale: Seadrill sold USD300 million worth of SapuraKencana shares, reducing its stake to 8%, but intends to keep its ownership in the Malaysian joint venture.
- LNG Export Bill: A US House panel passed a bill to exempt LNG exports to WTO members from government trade approval, benefiting private enterprises like Cheniere Energy.
- Oil Tanker Incident: An oil tanker sank near the Thai coast, transferring oil sludge to Bangkok for recycling.
Latest Reports and Analyst Ratings
- Keppel Corp: Maintained a BUY rating with a target price of SGD12.48. The company signed a 30-year management agreement for Titan Quanzhou Shipyard in China.
- Ezion Holdings: Maintained a BUY rating with a target price of SGD2.90. It is entering a partnership with AusGroup in Australia.
- Petronas Gas: Maintained a HOLD rating with a target price of MYR23.50. The company's gas processing revenue profile has stabilized despite lower earnings impact.
- Special Feature - PETRONAS RAPID: PETRONAS has approved the RAPID project, which is expected to be well received in the market. The investment value is 20% below the original budget.
Valuation Comparison (Asia Oil & Gas)
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price (09-Apr) | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USDm) | P/E (2013) | P/E (2014E) | EV/EBITDA (2013) | EV/EBITDA (2014E) | RoE (%) | P/B (X) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | NR | 8.72 | NR | 224.8 | 95.7 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 11.8 | 1.1 | 4.6 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | NR | 7.31 | NR | 102.2 | 114.4 | 10.2 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 12.2 | 1.2 | 4.1 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | NR | 12.68 | NR | 73.0 | 121.3 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 17.3 | 1.3 | 4.5 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 322.45 | NR | 46.0 | 19.7 | 11.4 | 10.4 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 16.8 | 1.8 | 2.9 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 962.15 | NR | 51.8 | 53.1 | 13.6 | 13.4 | 10.6 | 10.0 | 11.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | buy | 351.00 | 443.00 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 25.1 | 1.4 | 3.3 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 440.05 | NR | 5.3 | 9.9 | 16.9 | 15.2 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 11.5 | 1.9 | 2.5 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 313.80 | NR | 1.8 | 6.3 | 21.2 | 11.6 | 12.7 | 10.3 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 2.7 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | buy | 12.50 | 15.90 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 23.1 | 35.7 | 13.1 | 10.3 | 6.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| Phoenix Petroleum Philippines | PNX PM | buy | 5.68 | 7.22 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 12.9 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 7.0 | 12.7 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Petronas Gas | PTG MK | hold | 24.00 | 23.50 | 14.7 | 4.7 | 22.8 | 28.6 | 18.3 | 15.5 | 21.4 | 4.6 | 2.3 |
| Gas Malaysia | GMB MK | hold | 3.65 | 3.90 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 27.3 | 23.9 | 17.4 | 14.6 | 17.0 | 4.7 | 3.7 |
| PTT Global Chemical PCL | PTTGC TB | buy | 69.00 | 87.00 | 9.7 | 26.9 | 9.3 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 14.4 | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| PTT PCL | PTT TB | buy | 304.00 | 395.00 | 27.0 | 32.9 | 9.2 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 17.0 | 1.3 | 3.9 |
| Thai Oil PCL | TOP TB | sell | 52.25 | 65.00 | 3.3 | 6.5 | 10.3 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 1.2 | 5.9 |
| PetroVietnam Gas | GAS VN | buy | 92,500 | 103,000 | 8.3 | 1.7 | 15.2 | 13.9 | 9.6 | 8.8 | 40.8 | 5.2 | 6.1 |
| Asian Oil & Gas Average | - | - | - | - | - | - | 12.0 | 10.9 | 7.1 | 6.2 | 13.2 | 1.4 | 3.7 |
Analyst Contacts
- Howard Wong (Hong Kong/China): (852) 22680648 | howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
- Liaw Thong Jung (Malaysia): (603) 22978688 | tjiaw@maybank-ib.com
- Jigar Shah (India): (91) 22 6623 2601 | jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
- Yeast Chee Keong (Singapore): (65) 6432 1460 | yeakcheekeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
- Sutthichai Kumworachai (Thailand): (66) 2658 6300 x 1400 | sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
- Pandu Anugrah (Indonesia): (62) 21 2557 1137 | pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
- Laura Dy-Liacco (Philippines): (63) 28498840 | laura_dyliacco@maybank-atrke.com
- Bianca Solema (Philippines): (63) 28498835 | bianca_solema@maybank-atrke.com
- Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (Vietnam): (84) 844555888 × 8082 | chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
- Truong Quang Binh (Vietnam): (84) 4 44 555 888 × 8087 | binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Notes
- UR = Under Review
- NR = Not Rated
- All forward-looking estimates and multiples for companies not under MayBank Kim Eng's coverage are sourced from Bloomberg.
- Average multiples and yields are weighted by market capitalization.
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