2025-06-09-Jefferies-大宗商品追踪_2026年展望平淡_14页_774kb

Equity Research - USA Food: 2026 Outlook Flattish (June 9, 2025)

Key Findings

1. Commodity Index Forecast

   • 2025: 2.6% year-over-year (y/y) increase in agricultural and energy-related input costs, slightly higher than the previous estimate due to cocoa, proteins, and dairy price hikes.
   • 2026: Flattish y/y input costs (0.6% increase), led by deflation in eggs, cocoa, and coffee, which saw significant price increases in 2025.
   • Input Cost Breakdown: Approximately half of tracked commodities are expected to see cost increases in both years, but a few (natural gas, coffee, eggs, beef) are driving higher index growth.

2. Specific Commodity Trends

   • 2025 Price Drivers: Cocoa, proteins, dairy higher; coffee and sugar lower.
   • 2026 Deflationary Pressures: Eggs (down 22%), cocoa (-16%), coffee (-12%).
   • Arabica Coffee: Expected at 39% higher by 2026 despite slight cooling (weather, demand, tariffs remain supportive).

3. Price Changes Compared to Prior Estimates (Q1/Q2 2025)

   • Upside Moves: Dry whey (+935 bps), oats (+653 bps), U.S. cocoa (+545 bps).
   • Downside Moves: Robusta coffee (-965 bps), eggs (-951 bps), U.S. raw cane sugar (-248 bps), Arabica coffee (-205 bps).

4. 2026 Inflationary Commodities:

   • Natural Gas (+60% y/y), Wheat (SRW/HRW), Feeder Cattle.

Coverage & Recommendations

• Inflationary Headwinds (2026): Grain-based inputs, offset by deflationary benefits from coffee and cocoa.
• Covered Companies:
  • Buy: Post Holdings, Saputo, Utz Brands.
  • Hold: Campbell Soup, General Mills, J&J Snack Foods, Kellanova, Mondelez, Kraft Heinz, TreeHouse Foods, The J. M. Smucker, WK Kellogg, The Hershey (restricted due to acquisition).

Index Comparison

• JEF Commodity Index closely tracks U.S. Government Food at Home CPI and PPI (70% R²).

Disclaimer

• Sentiment is for 2025–2026 forecasts; prices fluctuate frequently for agricultural inputs.
• Legal disclosures and investment risks apply.