20240130-群益证券-黄山旅游-600054.SH-进山人数高增长_天都峰开放在即_3页_413kb

报告摘要

Stock Code: 600054SH/900942SH (Shanghai)
A-Share Price: 1173元 (as of 2024/1/29)
Target Price: 135元
A-Share Market Cap: 602.1 billion yuan
Key Metrics: PE ratio of 20x for 2023, 17x for 2024, and 16x for 2025; EPS projections for 2023-2025 range from 0.59 to 0.75 yuan per share.

2023 Full Year: Net profit expected between 36 and 46 billion yuan, reversing loss compared to 2022. Quarterly fourth-quarter profit estimated between -0.48 and -0.52 billion yuan, representing a reduction in losses compared to 2022's -720 million yuan.
Visitor Growth: Total visited-in-mountain tourists reached 45.75 million in 2023, up 22.75% year-on-year, and 30.6% higher than 2019 levels. Fourth-quarter visitors hit 10.47 million, up 24.84% from the previous year and 31.9% from 2019.

Drivers: Benefit from high travel demand and initiatives like free-entry promotions, maintaining high visitor volumes and supporting performance recovery. Anticipated reopening of Tian Du Peak in April could boost tourist interest further.
Recommendation: Maintain "Buy" rating with potential upside of 15%.
Long-Term Strategy: Focus on diversification beyond mountain tourism, including IP development and market expansion.

2024 Forecast: Net profit expected at 49.5 billion yuan, representing a 145% year-on-year increase. EPS of 0.68 yuan.
2025 Forecast: Net profit 54.5 billion yuan, up 103% year-on-year. EPS of 0.75 yuan.
Risk Factors: Weather disruptions affecting visitor volumes.