20180125-法国巴黎银行-Morning_Meeting_Notes_10页_634kb

Summary of EM STRATEGY | TURKEY DAILY (25 January 2018)

Core Content

This document is a morning meeting note from Turk Ekonomi Bank A.S. on 25 January 2018, authored by H. Erkin Isik, CFA, focusing on the FX and IR strategy for Emerging Markets, particularly Turkey. It provides insights into inflation trends, upcoming economic data releases, and market conditions, while also including legal disclosures for compliance with financial regulations in various jurisdictions.

Key Economic Indicators and Inflation Outlook

• Food Inflation:
  • Food and non-alcoholic beverages make up 22% of the CPI basket and are highly volatile.
  • Prices of key items like tomatoes, potatoes, and eggplant have declined by about 30% since the end of December 2017.
  • The weighted average price of 10 highest-weight items in the fresh fruit-vegetable basket declined by 20% from the previous month (as of 23 January).
  • Preliminary forecast for January inflation is a 1.1% m/m increase, which would bring headline inflation down to 10.4% y/y, from 11.9% in the previous month and 13.0% in November.
  • The decline is largely attributed to base effect, as January 2017 had higher inflation due to increased food prices, tobacco tax hikes, and greater currency depreciation.

Data Agenda

• CBRT Releases:

  • Weekly portfolio flows for the week ending 19 January.
  • January capacity utilization rate and Real Sector Confidence Index, expected to show improvement due to easing financial conditions.
  • Minutes of the last MPC meeting on 18 January.

• FX and Swap Market Overview:

  • USDTRY: Spot rate at 3,7408, down -0.8% daily and -0.7% weekly.
  • EURTRY: Spot rate at 4,6555, up +0.5% daily and +0.9% weekly.
  • BASKET (50% USDTRY + 50% EURTRY): Spot rate at 4,1982, flat daily and up +0.2% weekly.
  • Forward Implied and XCCY Swap Rates:
    • 1m: 12,32 (down -0.07% daily and -0.03% weekly).
    • 3m: 12,55 (down -0.06% daily and -0.11% weekly).
    • 6m: 12,88 (down -0.09% daily and -0.13% weekly).
    • 1Y: 13,51 (down -0.28% daily and -0.34% weekly).
    • 2Y: 13,28 (down -0.25% daily and -0.27% weekly).
  • ATM Volatility Curve:
    • 1m: 11,99 (+0.07% daily and +0.84% weekly).
    • 3m: 12,25 (+0.06% daily and +0.34% weekly).
    • 1Y: 13,77 (+0.06% daily and +0.48% weekly).
    • 1v5: -1,30 (+0.14% daily and +0.23% weekly).
    • 2v5: -1,07 (+0.11% daily and +0.16% weekly).

Market Instruments Overview

• Government Bonds Yield Curve:

  • 2Y: 13.36% (down -0.13% daily and -0.17% weekly).
  • 5Y: 12.46% (down -0.19% daily and -0.22% weekly).
  • 10Y: 11.99% (down -0.15% daily and -0.13% weekly).
  • 17.02.2045: 106.8% (down -0.15% daily and -0.13% weekly).

• CPI Linkers (B/E Inflation):

  • 2Y: 10.05% (down -0.12% daily and -0.39% weekly).
  • 5Y: 9.42% (down -0.18% daily and -0.21% weekly).
  • 10Y: 8.86% (down -0.17% daily and -0.15% weekly).

• Corporate Bonds:

  • Isctr 2021: 101.0% (yield 5.03%).
  • Garanti 2022: 102.2% (yield 4.65%).
  • Akbank 2025: 98.2% (yield 5.40%).

Legal and Regulatory Disclosures

• This document is non-independent research and is intended as a marketing communication.
• It is not investment research under MiFID II and should not be relied upon as an authoritative source.
• The information may be subject to conflicts of interest, as BNPP may have financial interests in the securities mentioned or engage in transactions inconsistent with the views expressed.
• The document contains hypothetical or back-tested performance data, which is not indicative of future results and may not reflect real-world factors such as liquidity constraints or transaction costs.
• Confidentiality: The document is for the use of intended recipients and may not be reproduced or distributed without prior written consent.
• U.S. Disclosures:
  • The report may be distributed only to institutional investors or major U.S. institutional investors.
  • Certain securities may be unregistered and only available to Qualified Institutional Buyers or non-U.S. persons under Regulation S.
  • BNPP may act as an Authorized Participant, market maker, or adviser in ETFs and may receive non-public information.

Strategy Contacts

Disclaimer

• BNPP and its affiliates do not provide investment, financial, legal, or tax advice.
• Past performance is not indicative of future results.
• The document is not a prospectus or public offering.
• The information is subject to change and not guaranteed in accuracy or completeness.
• BNPP may have conflicts of interest and may engage in transactions inconsistent with the views expressed.