20241203-国金证券-单季营收创纪录_AEC迎来加速增长_4页_757kb

Summary

Credo Technology Group Holdings Ltd. reported record revenue in its Q2 FY25, reaching $7.2 billion, with a significant year-over-year growth of 63.6% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 20.6%. The gross margin was 63.2% under GAAP and 63.6% under Non-GAAP standards. Net loss under GAAP was $42.3 million, but Non-GAAP recorded a net profit of $122.6 million. The company expects revenue to grow by two digits in Q3 FY25 and aims for around 50% year-over-year growth in FY26.

The company’s product revenue for Q2 FY25 reached $6.4 billion, supported by growth in product engineering services ($463 million) and IP revenue ($296 million). Key customers include Microsoft and new entrants, with three major clients each contributing over 10% of the revenue. The primary drivers of growth are attributed to increased demand from AEC downstream customers and partnerships with cloud providers and artificial intelligence companies.

Product developments include progress on 3nm optical module DSP chips and PCIe Gen6/7 retimers, which are expected to launch demos and start sample shipments in CY25, generating revenue in CY26.

The company’s market position is viewed positively by the investment bank, with a target for significant revenue growth over the next three fiscal years (FY25 to FY27) based on projections of increased demand for ASIC and AI Ethernet technologies. The stock is currently trading at high PS ratios, reflecting analyst optimism, with a recommendation to “Buy” based on future growth potential.

Risks include unmet demands from cloud customers, heightened industry competition, delays in customer onboarding, and product development challenges.

翻译 / Translation

紫光创为控股有限公司（Credo Technology Group Holdings Ltd.）在本财年第二季度实现创纪录的营收，达72亿美元，同比增长63.6%，环比增长20.6%。GAAP毛利率为63.2%，非GAAP毛利率为63.6%；GAAP净亏损为4230万美元，而非GAAP净利润达到1.226亿美元。公司预计第三季度营收环比增长显著，并计划在2026财年实现约50%的同比增长。

公司产品在2024财年第二季度创收64.4亿美元，为预期增长的主要动力，这得益于主要来自AEC行业的下游客户需求增加以及与云服务供应商和人工智能公司的深化合作。季度内有三个客户贡献了超过10%的收入，其中来自微软的贡献占比达到11%，第二家大型AEC客户的营收占33%，第三季度新增一家年收入占比达14%的新客户。

在其他业务方面，200G单通道3nm光模块DSP芯片已经完成流片，PCIe Gen6/7 retimer产品已进入演示阶段，计划在2025财年开始样品测试，并在2026财年实现收入贡献。

由于下游需求增长，尤其是云客户领域的ASIC以及AI以太网趋势明显，分析师预测公司2025至2027财年收入分别为393亿、586亿和765亿美元。当前股价对应2025、2026、2027财年市销率分别为20、14和10倍。分析师维持“买入”评级，认为公司增长潜力强劲。

然而，投资者需关注云客户需求疲软、市场竞争加剧、AEC客户导入不及预期以及光模块DSP研发进度滞后等风险因素。

该报告指出，紫光创为当前的估值位于IP及逻辑设计类企业中间偏高水平，但短期内业绩有望持续高速增长，从而对长期价值带来支撑。