20250709-东海证券-国内观察_2025年6月通胀数据_CPI同比转正_PPI仍待_反内卷_发力_4页_305kb

Summary of June 2025 Inflation Report

Key Findings

• CPI: Month-on-month changed from -0.1% to 0.1%, marking a slight increase and the first positive CPI since last July. This is slightly above the seasonal average of -0.18%. Food inflation is driven by strong performance in fresh vegetables and fruits, but hampered by higher base prices for pork, impacting CPI for at least three more quarters. Services and non-food items showed resilience, with core CPI rising to 0.7% year-on-year.

• PPI: Continued decline month-on-month to -3.6%, with环比 unchanged at -0.4%. Upstream industries remain the primary drag, exacerbated by weak demand and global factors. Some sectors, like electric vehicles and solar power, showed signs of "anti-involuntary competition" (reduced price declines), potentially indicating easing downward pressure.

Core View

• CPI's rise may lack sustainability due to pork base effects and other seasonal factors. PPI's deepening decline requires targeted policies to address supply and demand imbalances, especially given external pressures on exports.

Risks

• Domestic policy uncertainty, real estate slowdown, potential tariff changes, and global inflation risks may affect inflation dynamics.

Recommendations

• Monitor inflation trends closely, with focus on policy interventions. "Anti-involuntary competition" efforts could expand to traditional industries, complemented by demand-side policies.