20151123-高盛-A_glance_at_the_Asia_property_market_12页_291kb

Asia Property Weekly Summary

Core Content Overview

This report provides a detailed analysis of the Asia property market, highlighting key trends, news, and performance metrics across different regions. It includes insights into residential and commercial property dynamics, upcoming events, and analyst ratings.

Key News and Updates

China

• Residential Market: Transaction volume increased by +12% week-on-week and +29% year-on-year, driven by tier-3 cities. Inventory remained largely flat week-on-week, with inventory months decreasing slightly to 11.6 months.
• Real Estate Recovery: The recovery in the real estate sector slowed in October, with only 27 cities reporting price increases compared to 39 in September.
• Land Sales: Land sales in tier-1 cities saw a +230% year-on-year increase.
• IPO Resumption: China resumed IPOs in November, with two major real estate firms seeking approval to raise Rmb47bn in Shanghai.

Hong Kong

• Residential Sales: Estimated 190 primary residential units were sold in the week ending Nov 22, down -68% from the previous week and -36% below the 3-month average of 296 units.
• Secondary Market Prices: Prices declined -0.7% week-on-week as of Nov 15, but increased +5.8% year-to-date.
• NWD and Chow Tai Fook: NWD announced a HK$3.619bn acquisition of Chow Tai Fook Enterprise's hotel stakes in Asia.
• Link REIT: Projected 6% sales growth at HK malls for 2015, with the China portfolio contributing 7% annualized revenue.
• DTZ Report: Monthly rent in Central Wong Chuk Hang (CWB) was HK$1,550psf, down -12.3% year-on-year.

Singapore

• CPF Building Bids: Bids for the CPF Building at 79 Robinsons Rd exceeded S$500mn, surpassing the market expectation of S$450mn.
• Gaw Capital Partners: Acquired the BIG Hotel in Singapore for S$203mn.

India

• Debt Risks: Top real estate developers face Rs300bn in debt maturing in the medium term, amid weak demand and rising costs.

Japan

• Office Market: Vacancy rates in Tokyo central 5 wards improved to 4.46% (from 4.53% in September), while rents increased +0.1% month-on-month to ¥17,612.
• Construction Orders: Construction orders in September rose +6.7% year-on-year to ¥1,436bn, the first improvement in three months.
• CBRE Report: Implied cap rate for offices in Tokyo central area was 3.75%, the lowest since 2003.

Upcoming Events

Performance and Ratings

Market-Cap Weighted Price Performance

Top / Bottom 5 Performers of the Week

Top 5:

• China Overseas Grand Oceans: +18% (1-wk), +10% (1-mo)
• Greenland Time: +16% (1-wk), +16% (1-mo)
• Lino Kanaoka: +15% (1-wk), +0% (1-mo)
• Germida Corp: +11% (1-wk), +16% (1-mo)
• Guangzhou R.F: +9% (1-wk), +12% (1-mo)

Bottom 5:

• Sobha Developers: -8% (1-wk), -3% (1-mo)
• Shamori-La Asia: -5% (1-wk), +3% (1-mo)
• Red Star Macaine: -5% (1-wk), -7% (1-mo)
• Mori Trust Soogo REIT: -4% (1-wk), -1% (1-mo)
• SOCHO China: -4% (1-wk), -6% (1-mo)

Buy/Sell-Rated Stocks

Buy-Rated Stocks (Market Cap > US$2bn):

• Agile: +89% upside potential
• Shimao: +77% upside potential
• Tokyo Telemono: +67% upside potential
• Country Garden: +59% upside potential
• KWG Prop.: +50% upside potential

Sell-Rated Stocks (Market Cap > US$2bn):

• Gemdale Corp: -36% downside potential
• Everande: -30% downside potential
• Bumi Seroxo: -29% downside potential
• Champion REIT: -12% downside potential
• Advance Residence Inv.: +1% upside potential

Buy-Rated Stocks (Market Cap < US$2bn):

• Prestige Estate: +83% upside potential
• Sofa Developers: +68% upside potential
• Cherry Realty: +58% upside potential
• Mazdekree Commercial Trust: +29% upside potential
• China Lading Group: +16% upside potential

Sell-Rated Stocks (Market Cap < US$2bn):

• Godreil Properties: -22% downside potential
• Jinnao Investments: -8% downside potential
• Mandam Oriental: -5% downside potential
• Far East Hospitality Trust: -1% downside potential

Key Research Highlights

• Japan Hotel REIT (8985.T): Buy rating, benefitting from inbound demand.
• eHi Car Services (EHIC): 3Q below expectations on fleet size; beginning of profitability path.
• SOHO China (0410.HK): Updated EPS due to special dividend payment of HKD0.424/share.
• Japan Real Estate Investment Corp. (8952.T): FY9/15 in line with expectations, profit growth from higher rents.
• Mori Trust Sogo REIT Inc. (8961.T): In line, dividend per share (DPS) reduced to ¥3,500.

Analysts and Contact Information

• Anthony Wu: +852-2978-0634, anthony.wu@gs.com
• Claire Cheng: +852-2978-2488, claire.cheng@gs.com

Disclosure

Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware of potential conflicts of interest. This report is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. For full disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Appendix or visit www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.