20160418-高盛-Asia_Property_Weekly__A_glance_at_the_Asia_property_market_11页_284kb

报告摘要

Asia Property Weekly Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive overview of the Asia property market, focusing on the latest trends, performance data, key news, and upcoming events across China, Hong Kong, Japan, and Singapore. It highlights the performance of residential and commercial real estate, market activity, and analyst insights on property developers and REITs.

Key Market Insights

China Property Market

Residential Market:
- Transaction volume rebounded 19% week-on-week and +52% year-on-year, surpassing the March weekly average. Tier 2 cities outperformed.
- Land transaction volume and value increased 52% and 8% week-on-week, respectively.
- Inventory months stood at 9.1, indicating a moderate level of unsold inventory.
- In 1Q16, property investment grew 6.2% year-on-year, slightly below the 8.5% growth in 1Q15.
- Shanghai saw a 2.3% increase in Grade-A office rents to Rmb9.6/sqm/day, while retail rents increased 0.7%.
- New housing construction floor area surged 19.2% year-on-year in Shanghai.

Hong Kong Property Market

Residential Sales:
- Estimated 268 primary residential units were sold in the week ending April 17, up 17% from the previous week.
- Secondary market prices rose 0.4% week-on-week as of April 10, but 5.6% decline year-to-date.
Tourism Impact:
- Mainland tourist arrivals dropped 8.6% to 42.49mn in the past year due to the once-a-week visit limit for Shenzhen citizens.
Luxury Retail:
- Weak demand for luxury goods affected high-end retailers, with LVMH missing its sales forecast and Burberry reducing retail space at Pacific Place.

Japan Property Market

Condo Market:
- Tokyo condo contract ratio reached 68% and Kinki area contract ratio 79% in March.
Tax Policy:
- The Tokyo metropolitan government is considering a shift from a cost-based to an acquisition price-based method for fixed asset taxes.
REIT Performance:
- Japan REITs showed mixed performance, with some experiencing significant growth and others declines.

Singapore Property Market

Residential Sales:
- 843 private residential units were sold in March 2016, a +178% increase from the previous month and +38% year-on-year.
Monetary Policy:
- The Monetary Authority of Singapore set the rate of appreciation of the Singapore dollar policy band at 0%, signaling a shift to a neutral stance.

Key News and Updates

China

Real Estate Developers:
- Rising policy divergence continues, with upgrades to CRL, Sino-Ocean, and a downgrade to Shima.
Link REIT:
- Completed a tender sale of nine retail centers for HK$1.96bn, with each sold at a premium of 21% to 81% over appraised values.
Poly Real Estate Group:
- Below expectations due to higher taxes and minority interests, but raised its payout.
National Property Market:
- Growth accelerated in March, with unsold inventory falling for the first time since 2008.

Hong Kong

Commercial Real Estate:
- CapitaLand Commercial Trust (CACT.SI) reported stable delivery despite headwinds.
Market Activity:
- Lung Properties and Hang Lung Group were top performers, while Joy City Property Ltd and Yusuo REIT were among the worst.

Japan

REITs and Developers:
- Mitsubishi Estate was noted as a Buy-rated stock with 67% upside potential, while Evergreenie and Bumi Serifono were on the Sell list with -31% downside potential.
Market Changes:
- Tokyo Tatemono was on the Conviction Buy list, and Japan REITs showed 16% to +17% growth in 3-month performance.

Upcoming Events

Date	Market	Event
17-20 Apr	India	Trade balance, exports, imports
19 Apr	Japan	Trade balance, exports, imports
19 Apr	Hong Kong	Underemployment rate
21 Apr	Hong Kong	CPI composite yoy
21 Apr	Japan	Nikkei Japan PMI mfg
25 Apr	Japan	Leading index CI
25 Apr	Singapore	CPI
27 Apr	Singapore	MGCCT 4Q FY15/16 full-year results

Key Performance Metrics

Sub-sector	1-wk	1-mo	3-mo	6-mo	PIE (x)	Dividend Yield (%)	% +/- Fwd. NAV
China Property (off-shore)	3	4	14	1	8.3	4.7	-30
China Property (on-shore)	2	1	0	1	8.2	2.3	-34
Hong Kong Properties	5	5	11	-7	13.6	3.8	-39
Japan Property Developers	7	-1	-1	-16	22.1	1.0	-98
Japan REITs	-1	1	16	17	23.5	2.9	29
ASEAN Property	1	3	7	-1	19.4	2.0	-37

Key Rating and Target Price Changes

Name	Ticker	Currency	Rating Change	Target Price (Current)	Target Price (Previous)	% Change
Shimao	0813.HK	HKD	Downgrade	16.70	22.30	-25.1%
Sino-Ocean Land	3377.HK	HKD	Upgrade	5.90	5.90	0.0%
China Resources Land	1109.HK	HKD	Upgrade	27.20	30.20	-9.9%
SOHO China	0410.HK	HKD	Downgrade	3.80	3.80	0.0%
Dalian Wanda Comm Prop	3699.HK	HKD	Downgrade	56.90	65.00	-12.5%
Greentown China	3900.HK	HKD	Nil	7.10	8.50	-16.5%
Joy City Property Ltd	0207.HK	HKD	Nil	1.24	1.45	-14.5%
Shui On Land	0272.HK	HKD	Nil	2.50	3.00	-16.7%

Key Analysts

China Property: Yi Wang, Vicky Li, Jill Guan, Scofield Chi
Hong Kong Property: Anthony Wu, Justin Kwok, Claire Cheng, Nelson Wang
Hong Kong Conglomerates: Simon Cheung, Janet Lu, Alex Ye
Japan Property: Sachiko Okada, Akira Watanabe
Singapore Property: Paul Lian, Jason Yeo, Ankur Vohra, Jing Ren Tan

Disclaimer

Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, there may be a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. This report is only a single factor in making investment decisions. For full disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Appendix or visit www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.

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