20160314-高盛-Asia_Property_Weekly__A_glance_at_the_Asia_property_market_11页_300kb

Asia Property Weekly Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive overview of the Asia property market, focusing on recent developments, performance metrics, and upcoming events. It includes data on residential and commercial property trends across key regions such as China, Hong Kong, Japan, and Singapore, along with insights from Goldman Sachs and other industry sources.

Key News and Updates

China

• Transaction Volume: Continued to increase by +13% week-on-week and +81% year-on-year, driven by tier 2 cities. Inventory levels dropped by 1.8% week-on-week to 9.8 months.
• Land Transactions: Volume and value declined by 32% and 10% week-on-week, with Tianjin outperforming.
• China Vanke: Acquired Shenzhen Metro Group as a shareholder by issuing Rmb 40-60bn worth of new shares. A memorandum of understanding was signed for property projects atop subway stations.
• Regulatory Actions: Pan Gongsheng, vice governor of the People's Bank of China, announced stricter measures against gray market home loans to mitigate risks.
• Land Supply: Jiang Daming, minister of land and resources, mentioned an increase in land supply in first-tier cities to stabilize home prices.

Hong Kong

• Residential Sales: Estimated 99 new homes sold in the week ending Mar 13, a -15% decrease from the previous week and 48% above the 3-month average.
• Secondary Market Prices: Fell by -1.1% week-on-week as of Mar 6, with a -4.1% year-to-date decline.
• Moody's Downgrade: Downgraded Hong Kong's outlook from "stable" to "negative" on Mar 12, citing increased political risk and economic ties with China.
• Land Auction: Received 12 bids for the residential site at RBL 1201, with expected 180 units. Market estimates for land price ranged from HK$4.17bn-HK$4.9bn or HK$17,000-HK$20,000 psf.
• Nan Fung: Won the LOHAS Park Phase 10 site for HK$1.659bn or HK$2,044 psf, 20% lower than Phase 9's price.

Singapore

• CapitaLand: Sold 70% (134) of the 200 units launched in Cairnhill Nine, with half of the buyers being Singaporeans.
• OUE Hospitality Trust: Conducted a rights issue to raise S$238.6mn for the Crowne Plaza Changi Airport hotel extension.
• Amare Investment Management Group: Acquired 19 hotels from Greenland Group, with plans to list them in a Singapore REIT.

Japan

• Tokyo Vacancy Rate: Increased slightly to 4.04% in February from 4.01% in January.
• Used Condo Contracts: Rose by 7.5% year-on-year in February, marking the 5th consecutive month of increase. Contract prices also rose by 4.1% year-on-year, the 38th consecutive month of increase.
• Tokyo Fudosan: Initiated its first condo project in Indonesia, a significant move for the company.

Key Research for the Week

China

• Property FAI: Rebounded, but may not persist.
• China Vanke: Results below expectations; signs asset acquisition memo.
• Guangzhou R&F Properties: Results above expectations due to higher JV income booking and dividend.
• China Lodging Group: Results above expectations with Accor alliance contributing in 2016E.
• SOHO China: Results below expectations due to lower margins, but higher occupancy is a key growth driver.
• Swire Properties: Results below expectations as steady office rental rise was offset by hotel losses.
• Wharf Holdings: Results in line with expectations, with resilient IP performance and strong FCF.
• Hysan Development: Results in line with expectations, but the company is positioned for more challenges.

Hong Kong

• Hong Kong Properties: Price performance varied across sub-sectors, with China Property (off-shore) showing a +1% week-on-week increase and China Property (on-shore) declining by -9% week-on-week.
• Dividend Yield: Ranged from 1.9% to 5.2% across different sub-sectors.
• Market Cap Weighted Performance: China Property (off-shore) showed a +1% week-on-week increase, while Hong Kong Properties declined by -1%.

Upcoming Events

Residential Market Snapshot

Performance

Rental Yield and Vacancy

Supply and Take-Up

Commercial Property Market Snapshot

• Office Rental Value: Data available for Hong Kong, Beijing, Shanghai, and Singapore.
• Vacancy Rates: Vary by city, with Hong Kong at 4.1%.
• Capital Value: Data not fully available for all regions, but indicates varying performance across sub-sectors.

Key Contacts

Asia Property Research Team

• China Property: Yi Wang, CFA; Vicky Li; Jill Guan; Scofield Chi
• Hong Kong Property: Anthony Wu; Justin Kwok, CFA; Claire Cheng; Nelson Wang
• Hong Kong Conglomerates: Simon Cheung, CFA; Janet Lu; Alex Ye
• Japan Property: Sachiko Okada; Akira Watanabe
• Singapore Property: Paul Lian; Jason Yeo; Ankur Vohra; Jing Ren Tan

Disclosure

Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. This report should be considered as only a single factor in making investment decisions. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix or visit www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.

Conclusion

The Asia property market is showing mixed signals, with China experiencing a rise in transaction volume, Hong Kong facing a downgrade in credit rating and a decline in secondary market prices, and Singapore seeing significant sales and investment activity. Japan is witnessing a slight increase in vacancy rates but stable rental growth. The market outlook is influenced by regulatory changes, economic conditions, and company-specific developments. Investors are advised to consider these factors alongside other market indicators when making investment decisions.