20160523-高盛-Asia_Property_Weekly__A_glance_at_the_Asia_property_market_11页_294kb

Asia Property Weekly Summary

Core Content

This document provides a comprehensive overview of the Asia property market, covering key developments, performance metrics, and upcoming events. It includes data on residential and commercial property trends, stock performance, and policy changes across various regions such as China, Hong Kong, Japan, and Singapore. The analysis is based on data from multiple sources, including Goldman Sachs, Centaline Property Agency, and local news outlets.

Main Points and Key Information

Market Performance

• China Property (off-shore): 1% up in the last week, 8% down in the last month, 11% down in the last three months, and 13% down in the last six months. The PIE is 7.8x, and the dividend yield is 5.1%.
• China Property (on-shore): -3% in the last week, -8% in the last month, -11% in the last three months, and -9% in the last six months. PIE is 8.2x, and dividend yield is 3.1%.
• Hong Kong Properties: 1% up in the last week, 8% down in the last month, 6% up in the last three months, and 12% up in the last six months. PIE is 13.0x, and dividend yield is 4.1%.
• Japan Property Developers: 2% up in the last week, 3% down in the last month, 1% up in the last three months, and 18% down in the last six months. PIE is 20.8x, and dividend yield is 1.0%.
• Japan REITs: -1% in the last week, 0% in the last month, 2% up in the last three months, and 11% up in the last six months. PIE is 23.4x, and dividend yield is 2.9%.
• ASEAN Property: 1% up in the last week, 5% down in the last month, 6% up in the last three months, and 4% down in the last six months. PIE is 18.5x, and dividend yield is 2.1%.

Key News and Updates

• China:

  • Residential sales volume increased by 2% week-on-week and 21% year-on-year. Tier-2 cities outperformed with a 27% year-on-year increase.
  • Land sales volume rose by 17% week-on-week, while land value decreased by 2%.
  • New home prices in 65 out of 70 cities increased in April, with Hefei, Xiamen, and Nanjing leading the gains.
  • Some provinces introduced policies to reduce inventory by encouraging farmers to buy homes, offering subsidies and fee exemptions.

• Hong Kong:

  • 274 primary residential units were sold in the week ending May 22.
  • Secondary market prices were flat at -0.2% week-on-week.
  • Average monthly rent for 50 major private housing estates was HK$30.87psf, up 0.5% month-on-month.
  • Development Secretary Paul Chan mentioned plans to supply at least 340,000 flats through rezoning and increasing density in the short to medium term.

• Japan:

  • Mitsui Fudosan plans to open a logistics facility in Atsugi city in October 2017 with a GFA of 54,000 sqm.
  • Tokyo condo contract ratio was 66.4% in April, down from 67.6% in March due to lower contract rates in low-end condos.
  • Tokyo Kantei reported a trend in the high-end used condo market, with 237 units sold at over ¥3mn per tsubo.

• Singapore:

  • CapitaLand Commercial Trust proposed to acquire the remaining 60% stake in CapitaGreen for S$393mn, fully funded by debt.
  • Global Logistic Properties reported a 48% increase in FY16 headline net profit to USD719 million.
  • Qatar Investment Authority is in talks to buy Blackrock's Asia Square Tower 1 for an estimated S$3.35bn.

Upcoming Events

• Singapore: GDP on May 25, Industrial production on May 26.
• Hong Kong: Trade balance, exports, and imports on May 26.
• China: Industrial profits on May 27.
• Japan: National CPI on May 27, Retail sales on May 30.
• Hong Kong: Link REIT FY2015/16 Final Results on June 8.

Top and Bottom Performers

Top Performers (1-week)

• Summarecon: +9%
• Columbia Development: +6%
• Global Logistic Properties: +5%
• China Jimiao: +5%
• Bumi Sperong: +5%

Bottom Performers (1-week)

• SOHO China: -8%
• Agile: -6%
• MTR: -6%
• Poly Real Estate Group: -5%
• Gemdale Corp: -4%

Stock Upside/Downside Potential

Buy-Rated Stocks (Market Cap > US$2bn)

• Sino-Ocean Land: 90% upside potential
• Sunrise: 76% upside potential
• Shimao: 73% upside potential
• Tokyo Tatemono: 66% upside potential
• Mitsui Fudosan: 57% upside potential

Sell-Rated Stocks (Market Cap > US$2bn)

• Buri Spernozi: -30% downside potential
• Everande: -30% downside potential
• Gemdale Corp: -15% downside potential
• Hysan: -14% downside potential
• Champion REIT: -12% downside potential

Buy-Rated Stocks (Market Cap < US$2bn)

• Aigle: 98% upside potential
• Yanlord Land: 42% upside potential

Sell-Rated Stocks (Market Cap < US$2bn)

• Ciputra Development: -24% downside potential
• Far East Hospitality Trust: -4% downside potential

Additional Notes

• Prices as of 20-May: Agile and Tokyo Tatemono are on the regional Conviction List.
• Sources: Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Gao Hua Securities Research.

Team Information

• China Property Team: Yi Wang, Vicky Li, Jill Guan, Scofield Chi
• Hong Kong Property Team: Anthony Wu, Justin Kwok, Claire Cheng, Nelson Wang
• Hong Kong Conglomerates Team: Simon Cheung, Alex Ye, Michelle Han
• Japan Property Team: Sachiko Okada, Akira Watanabe
• ASEAN Property Team: Paul Lian, Jason Yeo, Ankur Vohra, Jing Ren Tan

Disclaimer

Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, there may be a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decisions. For full disclosure, see the Disclosure Appendix or visit www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.