20151221-高盛-Asia_Property_Weekly_A_glance_at_the_Asia_property_market_11页_283kb

Asia Property Weekly Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive overview of the Asia property market, focusing on key developments, performance metrics, and upcoming events across different regions. It includes insights on residential and commercial property trends, stock performance, and market dynamics in China, Hong Kong, Japan, India, and Singapore.

Key News and Updates

China

• Market Performance: Residential property volume increased by 5% week-over-week and 9% year-over-year, led by tier-1 cities. Inventory decreased by 0.8% week-over-week, reaching 11.2 months.
• Land Sales: Land sales value and volume dropped by 37% and 22% respectively week-over-week.
• Company News: Vanke suspended trading on Dec 18, citing plans for capital restructuring and asset acquisition. The company's chairman opposed a potential acquisition by Baoneng Group.
• Policy Outlook: Bank of Communications suggested the possibility of more easing policies in 2016 to address unsold home inventory.

Hong Kong

• Residential Sales: Estimated 39 new homes were sold in the week ending Dec 21, down 64% from the previous week and 85% below the 3-month average.
• Secondary Market: Prices fell 0.7% week-over-week as of Dec 13, with a year-to-date price change of +3.0%.
• Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 bps, marking the first increase in 10 years. The HKMA followed by raising its base rate by 25 bps due to the currency peg.
• Housing Supply: The Development Bureau reduced the 10-year housing supply target from 480,000 to 460,000 units.
• Population Forecast: The Planning Department predicted a population increase of 514,100 (7.1%) by 2024, with 21.7% aged 65 or above.

Japan

• BOJ Policy: The Bank of Japan increased its holdings in J-REITs to 10% from 5%, and plans to purchase ¥90bn annually.
• Condo Sales: November condo contract ratio reached 80.1%, driven by strong high-rise sales. High-rise condos accounted for 33% of contracts, up from 16% in October.
• Hotel REIT: Japan Hotel REIT (JHR) acquired Active Inter-City Hiroshima for ¥17.32bn and revised its FY12/15 DPU guidance.

India

• Demand Slowdown: Knight Frank reported a demand slowdown in the residential market, leading to poor price performance over the last three years.
• Developer Activity: No significant updates on specific market performance or events were highlighted.

Singapore

• Asset Sale: City Developments sold 3 office assets to a fund co-owned by itself and Alpha Investment Partners for S$1.1bn.
• Market Performance: Residential transaction volume was 1,311 units/month as of Mar 31, 2015.

Key Research for the Week

• Japan Hotel REIT (8985.T): Updated guidance and property purchases were reflected in GSe, with November data in line.
• China Merchants Land Ltd. (0978.HK): Coverage was terminated.
• Sekisui House Reit Inc. (3309.T): Performance was in line with expectations, driven by purchases from the sponsor to boost future dividend growth.

Stock Performance and Ratings

Top Performers

• China Lodogroup: +2% (1-week), +6% (1-month)
• Overseas Chinese Town: +11% (1-week), +6% (1-month)
• Pty Global Place: +10% (1-week), +17% (1-month)
• Evergound: +9% (1-week), -3% (1-month)
• Red Star Mallinell: +7% (1-week), 0% (1-month)

Bottom Performers

• GLP, JREIT: -3% (1-week), -5% (1-month)
• Mandarin Oriental: -3% (1-week), -2% (1-month)
• Shanri-La Asia: -3% (1-week), -5% (1-month)
• Aeva Land: -3% (1-week), 2% (1-month)
• Tokyo Tatemono: -2% (1-week), -10% (1-month)

Buy-Sell Rating Potential

• Buy-rated Stocks:

  • Agile: +89%
  • Tokyo Tatemono: +83%
  • Shimao: +70%
  • Dalian Wanda Comm Prop: +59%
  • Country Garden: +56%

• Sell-rated Stocks:

  • Gemdale Corp: -36%
  • Everande: -27%
  • Bumi Serrong: -22%
  • Champion REIT: -9%

Upcoming Events

• Singapore:
  • CPI: Dec 23
  • Industrial Production: Dec 24
• Japan:
  • Jobless Rate: Dec 24
  • CPI: Dec 24
  • Leading Index: Dec 25
  • Housing Starts: Dec 25
  • Industrial Production: Dec 27
  • Retail Sales: Dec 27
• China:
  • Industrial Profits: Dec 26
  • Leading Index: Dec 27

Market Performance and Valuation

Residential Market Snapshot

Commercial Property Market Snapshot

Office Rental Value

Retail Rental Value

Key Contacts

• Anthony Wu: +852-2978-0634, anthony.wu@gs.com
• Claire Cheng: +852-2978-2488, claire.cheng@gs.com

Disclaimer

Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.