20160301-高盛-A_glance_at_the_Asia_property_market_11页_291kb

Asia Property Weekly Summary

Core Content

This document provides a detailed overview of the Asia property market, including key news, performance data, and upcoming events across major regions such as China, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, and India. It also includes insights from Goldman Sachs' equity research team on market trends, stock performance, and valuation comparisons.

Key News and Updates

China

• Residential Market:
  • Transaction volume increased by +55% week-over-week and +221% year-over-year after the Chinese New Year (CNY).
  • Inventory decreased by -1.4% week-over-week, led by tier 2 cities.
  • Land transaction volume and value rebounded by 68% and 82% week-over-week respectively.
  • NBS data indicates that home prices in 70 Chinese cities rose faster in January, led by first-tier cities. Shenzhen saw the highest price increase at 4.1% month-over-month.
  • Hainan Province tightened land approvals for commercial housing to address surplus issues.
  • China banned local governments from using bank loans for land purchases and development preparations.

Hong Kong

• Residential Market:
  • Estimated 195 primary residential units sold in the week ending Feb 28, a +93% increase from the previous week.
  • Secondary market prices were flat week-over-week, with a year-to-date decline of 3.8%.
  • The government will sell 29 residential sites in FY2016-17, yielding 19,200 flats, a 5-year high.
  • MTRC and URA will supply 4,840 and 480 units respectively.
  • New World Development (NWD) announced a general offer to purchase all shares of NWCL at HK$7.80 per share, a ~29% discount to its adjusted NAV.
  • China Everbright acquired the Dah Sing Financial Centre for HK$10bn.
  • Average rent for private residential estates fell to HK$31.3 psf in January, the lowest since Jul 2014.

Japan

• Residential Market:
  • 78,089 condos were supplied in 2015, a -6.1% year-over-year decrease.
  • Total market size increased by +0.7% year-over-year to ¥3,606.4bn.
• Commercial Market:
  • Mitsui Fudosan established a fund with ¥5bn AuM to invest in high-growth ventures.
  • Japan Hotel REIT reported a +38% year-over-year increase in DPU to ¥2,977, with a revised FY16 DPU estimate of ¥3,318.

Singapore

• Residential Market:
  • Wandervale EC, the first executive condominium of the year, was 40% oversubscribed with 750 applicants for 534 units.
• Commercial Market:
  • CDL reported a headline net profit of S$773mn in FY15, up +0.5% year-over-year.
  • UOL reported a headline net profit of S$391.4mn in FY15, down -43% year-over-year, but had strong Singapore residential sales at 850 units (+72% year-over-year).

Performance and Ratings

Market Performance (Market-cap weighted)

• China Property (off-shore):
  • 1-week: (2)
  • 1-month: 4
  • 3-month: (19)
  • 6-month: 7.2
  • Dividend Yield: 5.5
  • % +/- Fwd. NAV: (49)
• China Property (on-shore):
  • 1-week: (3)
  • 1-month: 0
  • 3-month: 19
  • 6-month: 9.1
  • Dividend Yield: 1.8
  • % +/- Fwd. NAV: (36)
• Hong Kong Properties:
  • 1-week: 1
  • 1-month: 5
  • 3-month: (16)
  • 6-month: 12.3
  • Dividend Yield: 4.1
  • % +/- Fwd. NAV: (51)
• India Property:
  • 1-week: (3)
  • 1-month: (10)
  • 3-month: (21)
  • 6-month: (15)
  • Dividend Yield: 21.3
  • % +/- Fwd. NAV: (60)
• Japan Property Developers:
  • 1-week: 1
  • 1-month: 4
  • 3-month: (17)
  • 6-month: (16)
  • Dividend Yield: 23.6
  • % +/- Fwd. NAV: (29)
• Japan REITs:
  • 1-week: 3
  • 1-month: 13
  • 3-month: 12
  • 6-month: 25
  • Dividend Yield: 26.0
  • % +/- Fwd. NAV: 30
• ASEAN Property:
  • 1-week: 1
  • 1-month: 3
  • 3-month: (8)
  • 6-month: (3)
  • Dividend Yield: 17.8
  • % +/- Fwd. NAV: (43)

Top / Bottom 5 Performers of the Week

Top Performers

• Great Eagle: +$ (1-week), +4 (1-month)
• Chrysler REIT: +7 (1-week), +1 (1-month)
• Japan Hotel REIT: +7 (1-week), +15 (1-month)
• Japan Real Estate: +6 (1-week), +17 (1-month)
• Nomura Real Estate HD: +6 (1-week), +7 (1-month)

Bottom Performers

• Phoenix Mills: -(14) (1-week), -(18) (1-month)
• KVG Prop.: -(11) (1-week), +4 (1-month)
• Sino-Ocean Land: -(10) (1-week), -(4) (1-month)
• Agile: -(6) (1-week), +5 (1-month)
• China Overseas Grand Oceans: -(6) (1-week), +2 (1-month)

Upside / Downside Potential for Buy/Sell-rated Stocks

Buy-related stocks (mkt cap > US$2bn)

• Sharma: +136%
• Dalian Wanda Comm Prop: +17%
• Hao Ling Proo: +74%
• Tokyo Tatemono: +73%
• Cheuho Kong Property: N/A

Sell-rated stocks (mkt cap < US$2bn)

• Agile: +124%
• Sofia Developers: +108%
• Prestige Estate: +103%
• Obero Realty: +78%
• Yanlfond Land: +47%

Sell-rated stocks (mkt cap > US$2bn)

• Ciputra Development: -(23)%
• Far East Hospitality Trust: -(9)%
• Goody Properties: -(5)%

Upcoming Events

• 1-Mar:
  • China: Manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI
  • Japan: Jobless rate, Nikkei Japan PMI
  • Hong Kong: Great Eagle FY15 results
• 3-Mar:
  • Hong Kong: Retail Sales (Jan), Hongkong Land and Mandarin Oriental FY15 results
  • Singapore: Nikkei Singapore PMI
  • Japan: Nikkei Japan PMI

Analysts and Contact Information

Asia Property Research Team

• China Property: Yi Wang, CFA (86) 21-2401-8930; Vicky Li (86) 21-2401-8926; Jill Guan (86) 21-2401-8921; Scofield Chi (65) 6654 5188
• Hong Kong Property: Anthony Wu (852) 2978-0634; Justin Kwok, CFA (852) 2978-0481; Claire Cheng (852) 2978-0488; Nelson Wang (65) 6654-5463
• Hong Kong Conglomerates: Simon Cheung, CFA (852) 2978-6102; Janet Lu (852) 2978-1642; Alex Ye (852) 2978-6666
• India Property: Puneet Jain (91) 22-6616-9046; Aditya Gupta (212) 934-7434
• Japan Property: Sachiko Okada (81) 3-6437-9937; Akira Watanabe (81) 3-6437-9819
• Singapore Property: Paul Lian (65) 6889-2464; Jason Yeo (65) 6889-2485; Ankur Vohra (65) 6654 5185; Jing Ren Tan (65) 6654 5176

Valuation Comparison

Residential Market Snapshot

• Greater China:
  • Hong Kong: Price index 256, vs end-12: 16%, Last update: 10-Jan-16
  • Beijing: Price index 428, vs end-12: 42%, Last update: 17-Jan-16
  • Shanghai: Price index 291, vs end-12: 63%, Last update: 17-Jan-16
  • Guangzhou: Price index 80, vs end-12: 16%, Last update: 17-Jan-16
  • Shenzhen: Price index 400, vs end-12: 130%, Last update: 17-Jan-16

Residential Rental Performance

• Greater China:
  • Hong Kong: Rental index 262, vs end-12: 43%, Last update: 31-Oct-15
  • Beijing: Rental index 162, vs end-12: 12%, Last update: 30-Nov-15
  • Shanghai: Rental index 209, vs end-12: 47%, Last update: 30-Nov-15
  • Guangzhou: Rental index 154, vs end-12: 20%, Last update: 30-Sep-14
  • Shenzhen: Rental index 154, vs end-12: 20%, Last update: 30-Sep-14

Residential Transaction Volume

• Greater China:
  • Hong Kong: 42,386 units/wk
  • Beijing: 143 ksgm/wk
  • Shanghai: 467 ksgm/wk
  • Guangzhou: 189 ksgm/wk
  • Shenzhen: 174 ksgm/wk

Residential Supply and Take-up

• Greater China:
  • Hong Kong: Existing stocks: 1,138,421 units, Last update: 31-Dec-14
  • Beijing: Existing stocks: not available
  • Shanghai: Existing stocks: not available
  • Guangzhou: Existing stocks: not available
  • Shenzhen: Existing stocks: not available

Commercial Property Market Snapshot

Office Rental Value

• Greater China:
  • Hong Kong: Rental index 181, vs end-12: 7%, Last update: 30-Jun-15
  • Beijing: Rental index 298, vs end-12: 35%, Last update: 30-Jun-15
  • Shanghai: Rental index 154, vs end-12: 4%, Last update: 30-Jun-15
  • Guangzhou: Rental index 152, vs end-12: 1%, Last update: 30-Jun-15
  • Shenzhen: Rental index 275, vs end-12: 32%, Last update: 30-Jun-15

Office Capital Value

• Greater China:
  • Hong Kong: Price index 228, vs end-12: 9%, Last update: 30-Jun-15
  • Beijing: Price index 335, vs end-12: 17%, Last update: 30-Sep-14
  • Shanghai: Price index 281, vs end-12: 59%, Last update: 30-Jun-15
  • Guangzhou: Price index 187, vs end-12: 6%, Last update: 30-Sep-13
  • Shenzhen: Price index 378, vs end-12: n.a., Last update: 30-Sep-12

Retail Rental Value

• Greater China:
  • Hong Kong: Rental index 178, vs end-12: 7%, Last update: 30-Jun-15
  • Beijing: Rental index 193, vs end-12: 15%, Last update: 30-Jun-15
  • Shanghai: Rental index 136, vs end-12: 6%, Last update: 30-Jun-15

Retail Capital Value

• Greater China:
  • Hong Kong: Price index 342, vs end-12: 20%, Last update: 31-Aug-15

Office Supply and Take-up

• Greater China:
  • Hong Kong: Existing stocks: 7,386 ksqm, Last update: 31-Dec-14
  • Beijing: Existing stocks: 5,839 ksqm, Last update: 31-Dec-14
  • Shanghai: Existing stocks: 6,681 ksqm, Last update: 31-Dec-14
  • Guangzhou: Existing stocks: 3,443 ksqm, Last update: 31-Dec-14
  • Shenzhen: Existing stocks: 2,514 ksqm, Last update: 31-Dec-14

Disclosure

Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.