20151130-高盛-Asia_Property_Weekly__A_glance_at_the_Asia_property_market_11页_287kb

Asia Property Weekly Summary

Core Content Overview

This summary presents the latest updates and insights on the Asia property market, including key news, performance data, and upcoming events. It provides a detailed look at residential and commercial property trends across major markets such as China, Hong Kong, India, Japan, and Singapore, along with market analysis and investment ratings.

Key News and Updates

China

• Sales Volume: Residential sales volume remained flat week-over-week but showed a 15% year-over-year growth, with continued strong performance in tier-3 cities.
• Inventory: Inventory levels decreased by 0.7% week-over-week and inventory months fell by 0.5%.
• Land Sales: Land sales prices in tier-1 cities continued to rise. Shanghai and Beijing made land purchases in the district.
• Government Bonds: Shanghai plans to issue Rmb6.96bn in bonds backed by local government-managed mortgage funds, set for Dec 4.
• New Home Sales: New private homes sold in Shanghai increased by 5.3% week-over-week, with an average price of Rmb35,086psm.

Hong Kong

• Residential Sales: Estimated 590 primary residential units sold in the week ending Nov 22, up 3X from the previous week.
• Secondary Market Prices: Secondary market prices dropped 0.6% week-over-week, with a year-to-date change of +5.2%.
• Retail Sales: October retail sales declined 3.0% year-over-year to HK$37,175mn, with valuables sales down 17.0% yoy.
• Land Tender: The deadline for the Tai Po residential plot tender was postponed to Feb 5, 2016, due to a court injunction.
• Office Market: AIA made the most aggressive bid of c.HK$8bn for a Kowloon Bay office building under development by Swire Prop.
• Rent Decline: Private housing rents fell 1.8% month-over-month to HK$33.40psf, marking the fifth consecutive month of declines.

India

• Residential Launch: Godrej Prop. launched the first phase of The Trees residential project in Vikhroli, with prices between US$265psf and US$303psf.
• REIT Listing: Beijing Hualian Group plans to list its malls in a Singapore REIT worth S$597mn, with 4 cornerstone investors.

Japan

• Condo Prices: The Sep existing condo price index in Greater Tokyo area was 85.64ppt, declining 0.46% month-over-month but up for 5 consecutive months.
• Tokyo Condo Prices: Tokyo 23 wards saw a 17% year-over-year increase in used condo prices, reaching ¥49.78mn.
• Kanagawa Condo Prices: Kanagawa saw a 0.66% month-over-month increase in used condo prices.
• REIT Offering: Activia Properties REIT raised ¥21.2bn through a public offering and plans to acquire properties.

Singapore

• Retail Sales: The CPF Building was sold to Southernwood Property Pte Ltd for S$550mn.
• Private Condo Sales: Poiz Residence, a private condominium in Potong Pasir, sold 75% of its 350 units at an ASP of S$1,380psf.
• Market Trends: The residential rental index was 172, down 4% year-over-year.

Key Market Performance

Residential Market Snapshot

• Greater China:

  • Hong Kong: Residential price index at 267, down 1% week-over-week and 1% month-over-month.
  • Beijing: Residential price index at 391, up 44% year-over-year.
  • Shanghai: Residential price index at 296, up 66% year-over-year.
  • Guangzhou: Residential price index at 86, up 21% year-over-year.
  • Shenzhen: Residential price index at 422, up 124% year-over-year.

• Japan:

  • Tokyo: Residential price index at 144, up 15% year-over-year.

• Asean:

  • Singapore: Residential price index at 172, down 4% year-over-year.

Commercial Property Market Snapshot

• Office Rental Value:

  • Greater China:
    • Hong Kong: Rental index at 181, up 8% year-over-year.
    • Beijing: Rental index at 298, up 35% year-over-year.
    • Shanghai: Rental index at 154, up 4% year-over-year.
    • Guangzhou: Rental index at 152, up 1% year-over-year.
    • Shenzhen: Rental index at 275, up 32% year-over-year.
  • Japan:
    • Tokyo: Rental index at 94, up 3% year-over-year.

• Retail Rental Value:

  • Greater China:
    • Hong Kong: Rental index at 178, up 7% year-over-year.
    • Beijing: Rental index at 193, up 15% year-over-year.
    • Shanghai: Rental index at 136, up 6% year-over-year.
  • India:
    • Mumbai: Rental index at 103, down 3% year-over-year.
  • Asean:
    • Singapore: Rental index at 124, down 1% year-over-year.

Market Performance (Market-cap weighted)

Top and Bottom Performers

Top 5 Performers (1-wk)

• Prestige Estate: +7%
• K Walt Int'l: +6%
• McBride REIT: +4%
• Godre Properties: +4%
• Lipoa Karwaci: +3%

Bottom 5 Performers (1-wk)

• Ciputra Development: -8%
• Overseas Chinese Town: -8%
• QFII: -8%
• Poly (Hong Kong): -7%
• Shui On Land: -7%

Buy/Sell-Rated Stocks

Buy-Rated (Market Cap > US$2 bn)

• Agile: +94%
• Everbreeze: +83%
• Tokyo Tatemono: +67%
• Country Garden: +66%
• Sunac: +57%

Sell-Rated (Market Cap > US$2 bn)

• Gemdale Corp: -33%
• Evergreenance: -20%
• Bumi Serpong: -29%
• Champion REIT: -12%
• Advance Residence Inv.: -12%

Buy-Rated (Market Cap < US$2 bn)

• Prestige Estate: +70%
• Sobha Developers: +65%
• Obero Realty: +57%
• Mapletree Commercial Trust: +30%
• China Lodging Group: +16%

Sell-Rated (Market Cap < US$2 bn)

• Godai Properties: -8%
• Jinnao Investments: -8%
• Far East Hospitality Trust: -12%
• Mandin Oriental: -29%

Upcoming Events

Key Research Highlights

• Indonesia: Real estate pre-sales are weak and may extend into 2016, with the sector vulnerable to profit-taking after a recent rally.
• New World Development: Acquired remaining stakes in various hotels from CTFE for HK$3.6bn.

Analysts and Contact Information

• China Property: Yi Wang, CFA; Vicky Li; Jill Guan; Scofield Chi
• Hong Kong Property: Anthony Wu; Justin Kwok, CFA; Claire Cheng; Nelson Wang
• Hong Kong Conglomerates: Simon Cheung, CFA; Janet Lu; Alex Ye
• India Property: Puneet Jain; Aditya Gupta
• Japan Property: Sachiko Okada; Akira Watanabe
• Singapore Property: Paul Lian; Jason Yeo; Ankur Vohra; Jing Ren Tan

Disclosure

Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.