20160517-高盛-Asia_Property_Weekly__A_glance_at_the_Asia_property_market_11页_288kb

Asia Property Weekly Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive overview of the Asia property market performance, key news, upcoming events, and investment insights for the week. It covers the real estate and commercial property markets in China, Hong Kong, Japan, and Singapore, along with key data points and analyst ratings.

Key Market Insights

China Property Market

• Transaction Volume: Volume was largely flat week-over-week (wow), but rose 16% year-over-year (yoy). Tier 1 cities outperformed with a 32% wow increase, though this was 13% below the April weekly average.
• Land Sales: Land sold volume and value increased by 6% and 50% respectively wow. Nanjing led the land sales.
• CMI/CAI: CMI and CAI increased by 0.2% and remained flat wow.
• New Home Sales: China's new home sales in the first 4 months of 2016 rose 61.4% yoy to Rmb2.4tn, driven by government easing policies.
• Inflation: Consumer inflation in China was 2.3% yoy in April, unchanged for 3 months. Producer prices continued to decline, reaching -3.4% yoy.
• Investment: Property sector investments rose 7.2% yoy in 1Q16, with residential investments up 6.4% yoy.

Hong Kong Property Market

• Residential Sales: An estimated 420 primary residential units were sold in the week ending May 15, a 81% increase from the prior week.
• Secondary Market Prices: Secondary market prices were flat wow (+0.1%) as of May 8, with year-to-date (ytd) prices down 5.3%.
• Retail Sales: Hysan reported a 30% yoy decline in overall retail portfolio sales, mainly due to Apple's revenue drop. Excluding Apple, retail sales fell 12% yoy. Footfall in 2016 increased 5% yoy.
• Swire Properties: Retail sales at Pacific Place, Cityplaza, and Citygate Outlets fell 15%, 4%, and 14% yoy respectively in 1Q16.
• Mortgage Activity: 1,020 buyers of Henderson Land's new homes took out second mortgages, totaling HK$7.21bn, which accounted for 15% of total mortgages at Henderson's 24 projects.

Japan Property Market

• Sumitomo R&D: Plans to develop 30 office buildings in Tokyo by investing ¥1.7tn until 2021, expected to increase office leasing revenue by 40% to ¥400bn in 2021.
• Vacancy Rate: Miki Shoji reported a 4.23% vacancy rate in Tokyo central 5 wards in April, a 3-month improvement from 4.34% in March.
• Condo Prices: Tokyo Kantei noted that March used condo prices in the Greater Tokyo area rose 0.8% mom, marking the 3rd consecutive month of growth.
• Property Developers: Mitsubishi Estate and Mitsui Fudosan reported profit growth expectations for FY3/17, with Mitsui Fudosan receiving a "Buy" rating.

Singapore Property Market

• Private Residential Sales: URA data showed 745 units sold in April 2016, down 12% mom and 36% yoy.
• Manulife US REIT: Launched an IPO at US$0.83 (S$1.138) per unit, with a 6.6% distribution yield for 2016 and expected to raise US$519mn.
• Frasers Centrepoint: Applied to list an S-REIT with Australian logistics and industrial assets, though plans are not finalized.

Key Ratings and Target Prices

Top Performers

• Buy-rated stocks:

  • Sino-Ocean Land: 91% upside potential
  • Avila: 87% upside potential
  • Shima: 72% upside potential
  • Tokyo Tatemono Co.: 70% upside potential
  • China Overseas Land: 63% upside potential

• Sell-rated stocks:

  • Buni Spernozi: 27% downside potential
  • Evergande: 20% downside potential
  • Gemdale Corp: 18% downside potential
  • Hysan: 14% downside potential
  • Champion REIT: 12% downside potential

Smaller Market Cap Stocks

• Buy-rated stocks:

  • Sunraic: 82% upside potential
  • Yanlord Land: 47% upside potential

• Sell-rated stocks:

  • Ciputra Development: 20% downside potential
  • Far East Hospitality Trust: 5% downside potential

Upcoming Events

Key Research Highlights

• China: National property FAI growth accelerated with robust property sales growth.
• Sumitomo Realty & Development (8830.T): FY3/17 profit outlook appears conservative; rating is "Neutral".
• China Lodging Group (HTHT): Expanding along the hospitality value chain.
• City Developments (CTDM.SI): Headwinds persist; policy easing is key.
• NTT Urban Development Co. (8933.T): FY3/17 guidance down on lower sales gain but lease NOI up.
• Mitsubishi Estate (8802.T): FY3/17 growth on sale gains and improved leasing; rating is "Above expectations".
• Tokyo Tatemono Co. (8804.T): Profits dipped on low condo bookings, but no FY impact; rating is "CL Buy".

Top and Bottom Performers

Absolute Performance (1-week and 1-month)

Market Performance Summary

Summary of Supply and Take-Up

Key Data Sources

• Datastream
• Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
• Centaline Property Agency
• URA
• Real Estate Economic Institute
• Knight Frank
• National Bureau of Statistics
• Shanghai Daily
• The Standard

Analysts and Contact Information

• Anthony Wu: +852-2978-0634, anthony.wu@gs.com
• Justin Kwok, CFA: +852-2978-0481, justin.kwok@gs.com
• Claire Cheng: +852-2978-2488, claire.cheng@gs.com

Disclaimer

Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix or visit www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.