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Report Summary: Photovoltaic Battery Snce Industry Analysis (2025-01-07)

Key Highlights

• Market Overview:
  Globally, the photovoltaic (PV) battery snce market faces moderate capacity oversupply but is expected for a profitability recovery due to industry consolidation and demand growth. By 2025, N-type snce capacity is projected to align closely with demand, leading to a stabilization of margins.

• Technology Trends:
  N-type batteries, particularly TOPCon, dominate the market with a conversion efficiency of around 26%.xBC technology shows potential but remains costly; its adoption is expected to grow in distributed markets, peaking at 50% market share by 2030. TBC (TOPCon-based) is projected to gradually replace TOPCon by 2029.

• Profitability:
  The industry experienced significant losses in 2023-2024 due to price declines exceeding cost reductions. A recovery phase began in Q4 2024, with TOPCon snce cash profit expected to reach approximately CNY 0.02/CNY 0.03/W by 2025. 1H25, leading companies may recover profitability.

• Market Concentration:
  The N-type market is highly concentrated, with TOPCon manufacturers dominating. In 2023, TOPCon snce shipments reached 128GW, accounting for 23% of total PV snce shipments.

• American Market Focus:
  Companies like LONGi Green Energy are investing in overseas capacity to capture high-margin opportunities in the U.S. market, where snce prices can reach CNY 0.87/W due to trade barriers.

• Leading Companies:

  • LONGi: Projects a strong recovery with 2026 net profits exceeding CNY 1.79 billion.
  • Trina: Faces short-term profitability challenges but is expected to rebound with increased market share in distributed applications.

• Investment Outlook:
  Leading companies are well-positioned for recovery due to superior technology and cost efficiencies. Estimating a CAGR of 30% from 2026-2028, driven by technological advancements reducing production costs and expanding market access.

Main Conclusions

• Industry Outlook: The PV snce snindustry is transitioning towards N-type technologies, with TOPCon and TBC maintaining dominance. Long-term profitability is expected to recover by 2026 due to increasing demand from global markets and cost optimizations.

• Recommendations: Long-term investors should consider the sector for exposure to renewable energy trends and potential gains from technological advancements and global market recovery.