美元的作用即将发生重大变化吗？（英）-2023-16页_291kb

Summary of Symposium on Dollar Dominance

Overview

The discussion within "The International Economy" Spring 2023 symposium explores whether the U.S. dollar's role as the world's reserve currency is at risk of significant change. Experts weigh in on factors such as China's push for de-dollarization, geopolitical tensions, sanctions, and U.S. economic policies, with opinions ranging from dollar resilience to potential erosion, highlighting that a complete dethronement is unlikely but gradual shifts are possible.

Key Arguments Against De-Dollarization

• Some economists argue the dollar's dominance stems from U.S. economic size, financial depth, and the predictability of rules-based systems like Common Law, making replacement impractical.
• Proponents of dollar stability emphasize that alternatives like the renminbi lack the necessary trust, convertibility, and institutional freedoms due to capital controls and governance issues.
• Historical context shows that reserve currencies rise with economic power and political stability, suggesting the dollar's position is not easily altered, even without proactive U.S. efforts.

Challenges to Dollar Dominance

• Experts note potential threats from U.S. actions, including sanctions, debt crises, and policy unpredictability, which could erode trust and encourage diversification.
• Geopolitical rifts and China's economic strategy, which focuses on incremental advancements, may lead to a slower de-dollarization process, with regional or multilateral efforts being limited without broad international cooperation.

Views on De-Dollarization Feasibility

• China is seen as pursuing de-dollarization primarily for hedging risks, not complete replacement, due to its shortcomings as a global reserve currency.
• Most contributors predict a multipolar future, but with the dollar remaining dominant due to inertia, inertia networks, and its role as a safe haven, especially if U.S. maintains sound policies.

Conclusion

Overall, while consensus views the current decline as part of a broader trend toward a more multipolar system, the symposium concludes that the dollar's significant abrupt loss is improbable. Instead, subtler factors like sanctions avoidance and diplomatic shifts are driving slow changes, with a multilateral system like one under SDRs as an alternative gaining attention.