20230618-一德期货-铜_宏微观利好共振_铜价偏强运行_39页_2mb

报告摘要

Copper Market Analysis Summary

The report analyzes the current state of the copper market, providing insights into supply, demand, inventory, and macroeconomic factors. The overall outlook for copper is bullish due to a combination of macro and micro factors, leading to a biased strong price movement. Key points are summarized below:

Supply Side:
- Electrolytic copper production decreased in June (9319 tons,环比 -28.1% below May's 9588 tons), supported by resolving mineral disruptions and resilient TC (cash basis) at 9055 USD/ton.
- Imports remain net positive, but demand for refined copper may weaken due to higher prices, with inventories low.
- TC continued to rise, indicating supply constraints, though demand-related indicators like copper rod and coil manufacturing are moderating.
Macroeconomic Factors:
- US economy shows cooling, but risks like inflation remain stable, with Fed pausing rate hikes and ECB actions affecting copper prices.
- Domestically, policy expectations (e.g., interest rate cuts) bolster market optimism, despite weak economic data.
Inventory and Valuation:
- Inventory levels are extremely low, with SHFE copper stock down to 61,090 tons (week-over-week), while LME inventory also decreased.
- Copper prices are currently below their 90th percentile, reflecting overvaluation corrections, but fundamentals support recovery.

-3-ways Nickel Hydroxide Per Ton Nickel hydroxide prices rose to 7700 yuan/ton, nearly double the 2022 average, reflecting strong supply-driven factors. look at the reqNiCr alloy market.

Demand Sector:
- Copper rod and coil manufacturing are key demand drivers, with utilization rates steady but starting to weaken.
- Traditional sectors like power and automotive are slowing, with ongoing "gold trades" but constrained by newer energy needs.
Futures and Fundamentals:
- Fund positions are positive, with copper prices showing volatility (volatility index at highs).
- Outlook: Price may hold strong short-term due to supply/demand imbalances, but risks include inventory build from imports coming through and seasonal demand lulls.