20150818-高盛-A_glance_at_the_Asia_property_market_11页_289kb

Asia Property Weekly Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed summary of the Asia property market performance and key developments for the week of August 16, 2015. It includes data on residential and commercial property market trends, transaction volumes, price changes, and upcoming events across China, Hong Kong, Japan, India, and Singapore. Additionally, it highlights the performance of specific property stocks, ratings, target prices, and analyst insights.

Main Market Highlights

China

• Transaction Volume:
  • 18 cities with data saw an increase in transaction volume (median +9%) for the week ending Aug 16, compared to the previous week (-21%).
  • 25 cities with data saw an increase in volume year-on-year (median +39%).
• Price Trends:
  • 11 cities saw flat prices (vs. -1%).
  • On a year-on-year basis, 7 out of 11 cities saw price increases, with a median of +4%.
• Investment Trends:
  • Real estate investment in China rose 4.3% yoy to Rmb5.26tn in the first seven months of 2015, slightly below the first half of 2015.
• Affordable Housing:
  • 5.17 million units of affordable housing have started construction, accounting for 69% of the annual target of 7.4 million units.
• Key Sale:
  • A 15,276 sqm residential plot in Shanghai's Yangpu sold for Rmb49,236 per sqm, setting a new record for the northeastern district.

Hong Kong

• Transaction Volume:
  • 209 primary residential units were sold in the week ending Aug 16, down 34% from the prior week and 13% below the 3-month average of 242 units.
• Secondary Market:
  • Secondary market prices declined 1.2% week-on-week for the week ending Aug 9 but rose 8.2% year-to-date.
• Industrial Space:
  • The Planning Department decided to maintain the industrial usage of 510 ha of industrial space, with combined vacancy rates of 5.3%.
• GDP and Economic Indicators:
  • Hong Kong's GDP grew 2.8% yoy in 2Q2015, up from 2.6% in 1H2015.
  • Private consumption rose 6% yoy, while goods exports declined 3.6%.
  • Median household income increased 7.9% yoy.
• Key Sale:
  • A 9,890 sqm house at 22 Barker Road on The Peak sold for HK$1.5 billion, the second highest price per sqm globally.

Japan

• Condo Prices:
  • New condo prices in the Tokyo metropolitan area increased 10% yoy in July, with an annual income multiple of 9.65X (+0.88pp yoy).
  • In Tokyo central area, the annual income multiple was 10.61X (up 0.82pp yoy), the first time over 10X since 2009.
• Office and Hotel Acquisition:
  • Orix REIT acquired an office building and three hotels for ¥13.15bn, with an average NOI yield of 5.0%.
• Residential Price Index:
  • The April residential price index was 105.2, up 3.8% yoy; the condo index was 122.0, up 9.7% yoy.

India

• Private Equity Investment:
  • Private equity investment in real estate grew nearly three-fold yoy in 1H2015, with a majority used for debt refinancing.
• Home Sales:
  • 1,594 new private homes were sold in July (+325% mom, +212% yoy), with High Park Residences selling 1,169 units.
• Policy Update:
  • The National Development Minister stated that it is not yet the right time to lift property cooling measures.

Singapore

• Home Sales:
  • 1,311 new private homes were sold in July (+212% yoy), with High Park Residences contributing significantly.
• Market Conditions:
  • The residential rental yield in Singapore was 3.27% in Q3 2014 and 3.18% in Q4 2014.

Key Views and Insights

Stock Performance

• Top 5 Performers:
  • Nomura Real Estate HD: +10% (1-wk), +2% (1-mo)
  • OC T: +9% (1-wk), +27% (1-mo)
  • Godrej Properties: +8% (1-wk), +20% (1-mo)
  • DLF: +7% (1-wk), +18% (1-mo)
  • Poly Real Estate: +5% (1-wk), -8% (1-mo)
• Bottom 5 Performers:
  • Sobha Developers: -10% (1-wk), -14% (1-mo)
  • K&O Prop: -10% (1-wk), -16% (1-mo)
  • Hang Lung Prop: -7% (1-wk), -11% (1-mo)
  • Fortune REIT: -6% (1-wk), +2% (1-mo)
  • Shimao: -6% (1-wk), -11% (1-mo)

Buy/Sell-Rated Stocks

• Buy-Rated with Upside Potential:
  • Ailie: +156%
  • Shui On Land: +111%
  • Country Garden: +104%
  • KWG Prop.: +96%
  • Hang Lung Prop: +49%
  • Tokyo Tatemono: +45%
• Self-Rated with Downside Potential:
  • Gemdeep Corp.: -21%
  • Champion REIT: -1%
  • Evergrande: -10%
  • Advance Residence: -5%
  • Suntec REIT: +1%

Market Trends

• Residential Market:
  • In China, the residential price index for Shanghai was 202, up 34% vs. end-12.
  • Hong Kong saw a 25% increase in residential price index from end-12.
• Commercial Market:
  • Hong Kong's office rental value index was 175, up 4% vs. end-12.
  • Tokyo's office rental value index was 92, up 1% vs. end-12.

Upcoming Events

Key Research and Analysts

• China Property Team: Yi Wang, Vicky Li, Jill Guan
• Hong Kong Property Team: Anthony Wu, Justin Kwok, Claire Cheng, Nelson Wang
• Hong Kong Conglomerates Team: Simon Cheung, Janet Lu, Alex Ye
• India Property Team: Puneet Jain
• Japan Property Team: Sachiko Okada, Akira Watanabe
• Singapore Property Team: Paul Lian, Jason Yeo

Summary of Key Research

• Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town (000069.SZ): Valuation recovery of tourism business offers more upside; TP raised.
• Homeinns Hotel Group (HMIN): Below expectations on still-soft RevPAR, but midscale on the rise.
• Prestige Estates Projects (PREG.Bo): Below expectations on pre-sales, but collections/execution on track; Buy.
• Yanlord Land (YNLG.SI): Above expectations on sell-through rate; TP raised.

Source and Disclaimer

• Sources: Bloomberg, Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Gao Hua Securities Research.
• Disclaimer: Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports, which may affect the objectivity of the report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making investment decisions. For full disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix or visit www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.