20160201-高盛-A_glance_at_the_Asia_property_market_11页_293kb

Asia Property Weekly Summary

Core Content Overview

This summary presents a detailed analysis of the Asia property market, including residential and commercial trends across key regions such as China, Hong Kong, Japan, India, and Singapore. It highlights market performance, key events, and analyst insights from Goldman Sachs.

Key News and Updates

China

• Transaction Volume: Residential transaction volume declined by 1% week-over-week but increased by 27% year-over-year. Tier 3 cities outperformed.
• Inventory: Inventory decreased by 0.5% week-over-week, with inventory months at 10.9 (vs. 11.3 as of December).
• Land Sales: Land sales volume and value rebounded strongly week-over-week, driven by tier 2 cities.
• Profit Decline: Among 50 mainland-listed property developers, 23 reported a profit decline in 2015, with 15 projecting losses.
• Market Regulation: China is easing home purchase restrictions to address oversupply, with nearly 90% of 46 cities that had restrictions lifting them.
• Wanda Dispute: Dalian Wanda denied a dispute over a prime Madrid real estate project.

Hong Kong

• Residential Sales: Estimated 32 primary residential units sold in the week ending Jan 31, down 14% from the prior week and 82% below the 3-month average.
• Secondary Market: Secondary market prices fell by 1.5% week-over-week as of Jan 24, the largest decline since Jul 2013, returning to end-2014 levels.
• Negative Equity: HKMA reported 95 cases of residential mortgages in negative equity in 4Q2015, primarily from bank employees with 90% LTV mortgages.
• Private Residential Completions: Centaline Property Agency forecasts 17,500 units of private residential completion in 2016, down 28% from 2015's 15,700 units.
• Land Tender: NWD won the tender for URA's Ma Tau Kok project, with a GFA of 111,730sf and 216 units.

Japan

• Monetary Policy: The BOJ implemented a negative interest rate of -0.1% as part of its quantitative and qualitative easing policy.
• Residential Price Index: The residential price index for 2015/10 was 103.9ppt (+1.7% yoy), while the condo price index was 122.1ppt (+6.4% yoy), showing 32 consecutive months of growth.
• REIT Index: REEI reported a 0.5% month-on-month increase in the greater Tokyo area, with improvements for 7 consecutive months.

India

• Hyatt Expansion: Hyatt plans to expand its upscale Hyatt Place hotels to tier 2 and 3 cities.
• Residential Price Index: NUS SRPI Flash estimates showed a -0.3% month-on-month decline in residential prices in December, down -3.3% year-on-year.

Singapore

• Residential Price Index: NUS SRPI Flash estimates showed a -0.3% month-on-month decline in residential prices in December, down -3.3% year-on-year.
• Rental Performance: MCT reported +12.6% and +8.7% rental reversions on its retail and office portfolio in 3QFY16.
• Mapletree Industrial Trust: Reported positive rental reversions with an average rental rate of $1.89 in 3QFY16, up 0.5% quarter-on-quarter and 3.3% year-on-year.

Key Research and Ratings

• Japan Real Estate: Negative interest rates are positive for real estate companies and REITs.
• China Lodging Group (HTHT): Completed strategic alliance with AccorHotels; maintain Buy rating.
• Nomura Real Estate Holdings (3231.T): FY3/17 residential margins to stay at FY3/16 level; Neutral rating.
• Hang Lung Group (0010.HK): In line with expectations; Gestation of new malls remains a drag.
• Hang Lung Properties (0101.HK): Below expectations, dragged by tier-2 mall profits and lower RMB.
• GLP J-REIT (3281.T): Reflecting property sales/acquisitions in estimates; raising TP.
• Indonesia: Pre-sales to disappoint in 2016; downgrade CTRA to Sell.
• Other Ratings: Ciputra Development (CTRA.JK) downgraded to Sell; Wharf (0004.HK) TP lowered by 16.1%; Swire Pacific (0019.HK) TP lowered by 8.9%.

Upcoming Events

• 2-Feb: Hong Kong – Retail sales; Singapore – Nikkei Singapore PMI; Japan – Nikkei Japan PMI
• 3-Feb: Hong Kong – Consumer Confidence Index; India – Nikkei India PMI
• 8-Feb: India – GDP

Residential Market Snapshot

China

• Hong Kong:
  • Residential price index: 253 (vs end-12: 15%)
  • Week-on-week volume: 32 units, down -14% from previous week
  • Month-on-month volume: -26%
• Beijing:
  • Residential price index: 415 (vs end-12: 37%)
  • Week-on-week volume: 149 ksgm, up +16%
• Shanghai:
  • Residential price index: 249 (vs end-12: 39%)
  • Week-on-week volume: 615 ksgm, up +36%
• Guangzhou:
  • Residential price index: 89 (vs end-12: 29%)
  • Week-on-week volume: 216 ksgm, up +26%
• Shenzhen:
  • Residential price index: 340 (vs end-12: 96%)
  • Week-on-week volume: 75 ksgm, up +10%

Japan

• Tokyo:
  • Residential price index: 176 (vs end-12: 40%)
  • Monthly residential completions: 3,550 units

India

• Mumbai:
  • Residential price index: 211 (vs end-12: 15%)
• Bangalore:
  • Residential price index: 154 (vs end-12: 20%)

Singapore

• Residential price index: 172 (vs end-12: -4%)

Commercial Property Market Snapshot

Office Rental Value

• Hong Kong: Rental index 181 (vs end-12: 8%), up +4% quarter-on-quarter
• Beijing: Rental index 298 (vs end-12: 35%), up +29% quarter-on-quarter
• Shanghai: Rental index 154 (vs end-12: 4%), up +2% quarter-on-quarter
• Guangzhou: Rental index 152 (vs end-12: 1%), up +1% quarter-on-quarter
• Shenzhen: Rental index 275 (vs end-12: 32%), up +6% quarter-on-quarter
• Tokyo: Rental index 94 (vs end-12: 3%), up +3% quarter-on-quarter
• Mumbai: Rental index 70 (vs end-12: -9%), down -6% quarter-on-quarter
• Bangalore: Rental index 101 (vs end-12: -5%), down -3% quarter-on-quarter

Office Capital Value

• Hong Kong: Price index 228 (vs end-12: 9%), up +1% quarter-on-quarter
• Beijing: Price index 335 (vs end-12: 17%), up +2% quarter-on-quarter
• Shanghai: Price index 281 (vs end-12: 59%), up +1% quarter-on-quarter
• Guangzhou: Price index 187 (vs end-12: 6%), up +1% quarter-on-quarter
• Shenzhen: Price index 378 (vs end-12: n.a.), up +2% quarter-on-quarter
• Tokyo: Price index 92 (vs end-12: 0%), up +1% quarter-on-quarter

Retail Rental Value

• Hong Kong: Rental index 178 (vs end-12: 7%), stable quarter-on-quarter
• Beijing: Rental index 193 (vs end-12: 15%), up +5% quarter-on-quarter
• Shanghai: Rental index 136 (vs end-12: 6%), up +1% quarter-on-quarter
• Mumbai: Rental index 103 (vs end-12: -3%), stable quarter-on-quarter
• Singapore: Rental index 124 (vs end-12: -1%), up +1% quarter-on-quarter

Retail Capital Value

• Hong Kong: Price index 342 (vs end-12: 20%), up +3% quarter-on-quarter
• Beijing: Price index 140 (vs end-12: 5%), up -1% quarter-on-quarter
• Shanghai: Price index 140 (vs end-12: 5%), up -1% quarter-on-quarter
• Mumbai: Price index 140 (vs end-12: 5%), up -1% quarter-on-quarter
• Singapore: Price index 124 (vs end-12: -1%), up +1% quarter-on-quarter

Valuation Comparison

• Residential Prices:

  • Hong Kong: Index 253 (vs end-12: 15%), with varied month-on-month and quarter-on-quarter changes.
  • Beijing: Index 415 (vs end-12: 37%), with fluctuating performance.
  • Shanghai: Index 249 (vs end-12: 39%), with mixed changes.
  • Guangzhou: Index 89 (vs end-12: 29%), with consistent upward trend.
  • Shenzhen: Index 340 (vs end-12: 96%), with strong performance.
  • Tokyo: Index 176 (vs end-12: 40%), with steady growth.
  • Mumbai: Index 211 (vs end-12: 15%), with downward trend.
  • Bangalore: Index 154 (vs end-12: 20%), with modest decline.
  • Singapore: Index 172 (vs end-12: -4%), with stable performance.

• Residential Rents:

  • Hong Kong: Index 262 (vs end-12: 43%), with varied changes.
  • Beijing: Index 162 (vs end-12: 12%), with steady performance.
  • Shanghai: Index 209 (vs end-12: 47%), with consistent growth.
  • Guangzhou: Index 162 (vs end-12: 29%), with positive trend.
  • Shenzhen: Index 162 (vs end-12: 96%), with stable performance.
  • Tokyo: Index 99 (vs end-12: 7%), with steady performance.
  • Mumbai: Index 119 (vs end-12: -5%), with downward trend.
  • Bangalore: Index 119 (vs end-12: -5%), with modest decline.
  • Singapore: Index 119 (vs end-12: -5%), with stable performance.

• Rental Yield:

  • Hong Kong: 2.60% (vs end-12: 2.65%)
  • Beijing: 2.11% (vs end-12: 2.13%)
  • Shanghai: 2.13% (vs end-12: 2.09%)
  • Guangzhou: 2.13% (vs end-12: 2.10%)
  • Shenzhen: 2.13% (vs end-12: 2.09%)
  • Tokyo: 4.55% (vs end-12: 4.52%)
  • Mumbai: 3.15% (vs end-12: 3.06%)
  • Bangalore: 3.15% (vs end-12: 3.06%)
  • Singapore: 3.15% (vs end-12: 3.06%)

• Cost of Carry:

  • Hong Kong: -2.40% (vs end-12: -2.35%)
  • Beijing: -3.49% (vs end-12: -3.52%)
  • Shanghai: -4.42% (vs end-12: -3.56%)
  • Guangzhou: -2.40% (vs end-12: -2.35%)
  • Shenzhen: -2.40% (vs end-12: -2.35%)
  • Tokyo: -2.40% (vs end-12: -2.35%)
  • Mumbai: -3.49% (vs end-12: -3.52%)
  • Bangalore: -4.42% (vs end-12: -3.56%)
  • Singapore: -2.40% (vs end-12: -2.35%)

Key Takeaways

• The Asia property market is showing mixed trends, with some cities experiencing declines in sales and prices while others see rebounds.
• Negative interest rates in Japan are expected to benefit real estate and REITs.
• Hong Kong's residential market is under pressure, with declining secondary market prices and lower sales volumes.
• China is actively addressing market oversupply through policy adjustments.
• Hyatt's expansion plans in India and Singapore's property market activity are notable.
• Rental yields and cost of carry data indicate varying levels of market stability and performance across regions.