20150824-高盛-A_glance_at_the_Asia_property_market_11页_290kb
报告摘要
Asia Property Weekly Summary
Core Content Overview
This report provides a comprehensive overview of the Asia property market, focusing on residential and commercial segments across major cities in China, Hong Kong, Japan, India, and Singapore. It highlights key market trends, price movements, transaction volumes, and upcoming events. The report also includes performance data for different sub-sectors, ratings changes, and target price updates from Goldman Sachs' research team.
Key Market Trends
China
- Residential Market:
- 16 out of 31 cities with data saw an increase in transaction volumes (median +3% week-on-week).
- 21 out of 31 cities saw a year-on-year increase in volumes (median +29%).
- 12 out of 13 cities with data saw flat prices week-on-week, with 7 out of 11 cities showing price increases (median +2%).
- Beijing imposed home purchase restrictions in Tongzhou, limiting purchases for non-local residents.
- China Cinda Asset Management acquired a mixed-use project in Beijing for RMB10.5bn.
- China Vanke issued its first RMB5bn bond at interest rates of 3.78–5%.
Hong Kong
- Residential Market:
- Estimated 116 primary residential units sold in the week ending Aug 23, a 44% drop from the previous week and 52% below the 3-month average.
- Secondary market prices increased by 0.4% week-on-week as of Aug 16, up 8.6% year-to-date.
- The Town Planning Board conditionally endorsed a plan to revive the TST promenade, which will be closed for up to 3 years.
- July visitor arrivals dropped by 8.4% year-on-year, with a 10% decline from mainland China.
- Link REIT plans to sell 4–5 shopping malls through private tender, including the Ka Fuk Shopping Centre and Tin Wan Shopping Centre.
Japan
- Residential Market:
- In July, the greater Tokyo area saw a contract rate of 83.7%, total supply of 4,785 units (flat year-on-year), and price per unit increased by 7.6% year-on-year to ¥59.53mn.
- The average price of new detached houses rose by 1.5% month-on-month, with varying trends by region.
- A survey indicated that 46.2% of respondents believe it is a good time to buy a house, down from 53.5% in January.
India
- Residential Market:
- Oberoi Realty is acquiring the corporate office of Crompton Greaves Ltd in Mumbai for c.Rs.2bn.
- The developer is also working on a luxury residential project and a hotel through a joint venture with Sahana Group.
Singapore
- Residential Market:
- The income ceiling for HDB flat buyers increased from S$10k to S$12k, and for Executive Condominium buyers from S$12k to S$14k.
- Guocoland sold its Dongzhimen mixed-used project in Beijing to China Cinda Asset Management for RMB10.5bn (S$2.3bn).
Performance and Valuation
Sub-sector Performance (Market-cap weighted)
| Sub-sector | 1-wk | 1mo | 3mo | 6mo | Underlying P/E (x) | Dividend Yield (%) | % +/- Fwd. NAV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China (of-shore) | -9% | -15% | -29% | -8% | 8.2 | 4.6 | -49% |
| China (on-shore) | -10% | -10% | -16% | -5% | 9.6 | 2.3 | -25% |
| Hong Kong | -4% | -13% | -19% | -14% | 13.8 | 3.5 | -43% |
| India Developers | -10% | -3% | -14% | -22% | 26.3 | 1.2 | -53% |
| Japan Developers | -5% | 0% | -4% | -4% | 30.6 | 0.6 | -16% |
| Japan REITs | 0% | -2% | -7% | -7% | 25.3 | 3.2 | -17% |
| Singapore Developers | -5% | -12% | -16% | -17% | 16.3 | 2.6 | -44% |
Top / Bottom 5 Performers of the Week
Top 5
- GLP JCREST: +3% (1-wk), +3% (1-mo)
- Japan Real Estate: +3% (1-wk), -5% (1-mo)
- Yanold Land: +3% (1-wk), +1% (1-mo)
- Nippon Building Fund: +2% (1-wk), -1% (1-mo)
- Godrei Properties: +1% (1-wk), +13% (1-mo)
Bottom 5
- Leu: -23% (1-wk), -27% (1-mo)
- SOHO China: -19% (1-wk), -24% (1-mo)
- Gemdale Corp: -18% (1-wk), -19% (1-mo)
- Sunac: -16% (1-wk), -29% (1-mo)
- DLF: -15% (1-wk), +7% (1-mo)
Key Rating and Target Price Changes
| Name | Ticker | Currency | Rating Change | Target Price (Current) | Target Price (Previous) | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tokyu Fudosan | 3289.T | JPY | Downgrade | 1,090.00 | 1,090.00 | 0.0% |
| COGO | 0081.HK | HKD | Nil | 5.40 | 5.90 | -8.5% |
| China Lodging | HTHT | USD | Nil | 24.10 | 22.50 | +7.1% |
| China Vanke (A) | 000002.SZ | CNY | Nil | 19.60 | 18.60 | +5.4% |
| Swire Pacific | 0019.HK | HKD | Nil | 98.00 | 106.20 | -7.7% |
| SOHO China | 0410.HK | HKD | Nil | 6.20 | 6.80 | -8.8% |
Upcoming Events
| Date | Market | Event |
|---|---|---|
| 24-Aug | Hong Kong | Jinmao 1H FY15 results |
| 25-Aug | Hong Kong | Exports, Imports, Trade Balance; CKP, K Wah, Shun Tak 1H FY15 results |
| 26-Aug | Hong Kong | K Wah post-results group lunch; Sino Land FY15 results |
| 26-Aug | Singapore | Industrial Production |
| 27-Aug | Hong Kong | Sino Land post-results group meeting |
| 28-Aug | China | Industrial Profits |
| 28-Aug | Japan | Jobless Rate; Tokyo CPI; Retail Sales |
| 31-Aug | Hong Kong | July Retail Sales |
Key Contacts
- China Property: Yi Wang, CFA (86) 21-2401-8930; Vicky Li (86) 21-2401-8926; Jill Guan (86) 21-2401-8921
- Hong Kong Property: Anthony Wu (852) 2978-0634; Justin Kwok, CFA (852) 2978-0481; Claire Cheng (852) 2978-0488; Nelson Wang (65) 6654-5463
- Hong Kong Conglomerates: Simon Cheung, CFA (852) 2978-6102; Janet Lu (852) 2978-1642; Alex Ye (852) 2978-6666
- India Property: Puneet Jain (91) 22-6616-9046
- Japan Property: Sachiko Okada (81) 3-6437-9937; Akira Watanabe (81) 3-6437-9819
- Singapore Property: Paul Lian (65) 6889-2464; Jason Yeo (65) 6889-2485
Disclosure
Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should be aware of potential conflicts of interest that may affect the objectivity of this report. This report is intended as a single factor in investment decision-making. For more information, refer to the Disclosure Appendix or visit www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.
Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
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