20150608-高盛-A_glance_at_the_Asia_property_market_11页_290kb

Asia Property Weekly Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the Asia property market, including key news, market performance, and upcoming events across China, Hong Kong, Japan, India, and Singapore. It highlights changes in residential and commercial property trends, price indices, transaction volumes, and investment outlooks.

Main Points

Key News and Updates

• China:

  • 23 out of 33 cities with data saw a decline in transaction volumes (median -21%).
  • 10 out of 13 cities with data saw a decline in prices (median -4%).
  • Guangzhou relaxed down payment requirements for first and second homebuyers on June 7, reducing the down payment ratio to 20% for first-time buyers and 30% for second homebuyers.

• Hong Kong:

  • Estimated 639 primary residential units sold in the week ending June 7, up 40% from the prior week.
  • Secondary market prices increased 1.2% week-on-week as of May 31, and 6.5% year-to-date.
  • Local retail sales fell 2.2% year-on-year in April, with jewelry sales slumping 19.5% (vs. -18.6% in March).
  • Wheelock won the Lohas Park Ph.7 project with a land premium of HK$3.88bn, and MTRC will buy back the shopping center upon completion for HK$4.98bn.

• Japan:

  • Tokyo Fudosan Holdings joined the 425 Park Avenue development project in NYC with a rental floor area of 64,000 m².
  • Mitsui Fudosan announced participation in the White City Place Redevelopment Project in London, with a total investment of ¥400bn.
  • Residential price index for February was 104.6 (+2.0% yoy), with detached houses at 100.0 (-0.1% yoy) and condos at 117.8 (+4.1% yoy).

• India:

  • Housing sales show improvement signals, but full recovery is expected only in the next fiscal year.
  • CREDAI noted that sales could pick up if home loan interest rates drop to 9%.

• Singapore:

  • The new Manpower Minister stated that foreign-worker policy will not be relaxed or reduced.
  • High-end private freehold residential development along Sophia Road, Fairhaven, is up for collective sale at S$1,169 psf ppr.

Market Performance

• Residential Market Performance (Market-cap weighted):

  • China (off-shore): 1-wk (0%), 1mo (-3%), 3mo (24%), 6mo (21%)
  • China (on-shore): 1-wk (7%), 1mo (10%), 3mo (43%), 6mo (61%)
  • Hong Kong: 1-wk (-2%), 1mo (-3%), 3mo (7%), 6mo (9%)
  • India Developers: 1-wk (-7%), 1mo (-13%), 3mo (-21%), 6mo (-19%)
  • Japan Developers: 1-wk (-2%), 1mo (-), 3mo (6%), 6mo (6%)
  • Japan REITs: 1-wk (-2%), 1mo (0%), 3mo (-3%), 6mo (-3%)
  • Singapore Developers: 1-wk (4%), 1mo (8%), 3mo (4%), 6mo (3%)

• Top 5 Performers of the Week:

  • Gemdale Corp: 13% (1-wk), 16% (1-mo)
  • Poly Real Estate: 11% (1-wk), 10% (1-mo)
  • China Lodging: 9% (1-wk), 20% (1-mo)
  • China Vanke (A): 9% (1-wk), 13% (1-mo)
  • Leju: 8% (1-wk), -19% (1-mo)

• Bottom 5 Performers of the Week:

  • Unitech: -38% (1-wk), -43% (1-mo)
  • Jayadis Real Estate: -15% (1-wk), -17% (1-mo)
  • Jayanea Infrastr: -14% (1-wk), -19% (1-mo)
  • Housing Dev. & Infra.: -9% (1-wk), -19% (1-mo)
  • DLF: -9% (1-wk), -23% (1-mo)

Upcoming Events

• China:

  • June 9: CPI
  • June 11: Retail sales, industrial production

• Japan:

  • June 9: CCI
  • June 12: Industrial production

• India:

  • June 10: Exports, imports, trade balance
  • June 12: Industrial production

• Hong Kong:

  • June 10: The Link REIT FY15 Results
  • June 12: Industrial production

• Singapore:

  • June 15: Retail sales; Singapore monthly new home sales

Valuation and Investment Outlook

• Buy/Sell-Rated Stocks (Market Cap > US$2 bn):

  • Buy-rated: Aigle (88% upside), Country Garden (69% upside), Tokyo Tatamono (53% upside), DLF (51% upside), NTT Urban Development (34% upside)
  • Sell-rated: Shanghai Shimao (-33.3% downside), Gemside Corp. (-38% downside), Champion REIT (-2% downside), Great Eagle (-12% downside), Suntec REIT (-5% downside)

• Buy/Sell-Rated Stocks (Market Cap < US$2 bn):

  • Buy-related: Sobiab Developers (42% upside), Yanlord Land (39% upside), Prestige Inc. (10% upside)
  • Self-rated: Norma Real Estate Res. (-25% downside), GodCare Properties (-8% downside), OUE Hospitality Trust (-7% downside)

Key Information

• Market Trends:

  • In China, residential price recovery is beginning, and broader stabilization is anticipated.
  • In Hong Kong, residential prices showed a small increase, while transaction volumes saw mixed results.
  • In Japan, residential prices for condos continued to rise, while detached houses remained stable.
  • In India, housing sales are improving, but full recovery is expected in the next fiscal year.

• Investment Highlights:

  • Goldman Sachs identified several stocks with significant upside or downside potential.
  • Tokyo Fudosan and Mitsui Fudosan are expanding their overseas development plans.
  • Singapore maintains strict foreign-worker policies, impacting its property market.

• Data Sources:

  • Data is sourced from various entities, including Centaline Property Agency, Datastream, China National Bureau of Statistics, and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

Summary Tables

Residential Market Snapshot

Commercial Property Market Snapshot

• Office Rental Value:

  • Hong Kong: 175 (Index), +4% (vs end-12), +1% (QoQ)
  • Beijing: 297 (Index), +35% (vs end-12), -2% (QoQ)
  • Shanghai: 151 (Index), +2% (vs end-12), -1% (QoQ)
  • Guangzhou: 154 (Index), +2% (vs end-12), -2% (QoQ)
  • Shenzhen: 260 (Index), +25% (vs end-12), +4% (QoQ)
  • Tokyo: 92 (Index), +1% (vs end-12), +2% (QoQ)
  • Mumbai: 70 (Index), -9% (vs end-12), -4% (QoQ)
  • Bangalore: 101 (Index), -5% (vs end-12), -3% (QoQ)
  • Singapore: 228 (Index), +14% (vs end-12), +3% (QoQ)

• Retail Rental Value:

  • Hong Kong: 185 (Index), +6% (vs end-12), +1% (QoQ)
  • Beijing: 193 (Index), +15% (vs end-12), +1% (QoQ)
  • Shanghai: 133 (Index), +6% (vs end-12), +2% (QoQ)
  • Singapore: 125 (Index), +0% (vs end-12), +0% (QoQ)

• Office Supply and Take-Up:

  • Hong Kong: 7,386 ksqm (existing), 4% vacancy, 125 ksqm (completion), 32 ksqm (take-up)
  • Beijing: 5,839 ksqm (existing), 3% vacancy, 140 ksqm (completion), 423 ksqm (take-up)
  • Shanghai: 6,681 ksqm (existing), 9% vacancy, 748 ksqm (completion), 430 ksqm (take-up)
  • Guangzhou: 3,443 ksqm (existing), 10% vacancy, 396 ksqm (completion), 336 ksqm (take-up)
  • Shenzhen: 2,514 ksqm (existing), 8% vacancy, 580 ksqm (completion), 174 ksqm (take-up)
  • Tokyo: 7,314 ksqm (existing), 7% vacancy, 569 ksqm (completion), 732 ksqm (take-up)

• Retail Supply and Take-Up:

  • Hong Kong: 10,891 ksqm (existing), 7% vacancy, 42 ksqm (completion), -14 ksqm (take-up)
  • Singapore: 6,294 ksqm (existing), 11% vacancy, 192 ksqm (completion), 129 ksqm (take-up)

Conclusion

The Asia property market is showing mixed trends, with some areas experiencing price increases and others facing challenges. Key developments include policy changes in China and Singapore, ongoing projects in Japan, and improvements in India's housing market. Investment opportunities are highlighted by Goldman Sachs, with specific stocks showing potential for significant upside or downside. Upcoming events are expected to provide further insights into market conditions.