20150921-高盛-A_glance_at_the_Asia_property_market_11页_284kb

Asia Property Weekly Summary

Core Content

This summary provides an overview of the Asia property market, including key news, market performance, and upcoming events. It highlights trends in residential and commercial property sectors across major cities in China, Hong Kong, Japan, India, and Singapore.

Key News and Updates

China

• Residential Market:
  • In 17 out of 31 cities with data available, transaction volumes increased week-over-week (median +3%).
  • On a year-over-year basis, 24 cities saw volume increases (median +36%).
  • In 7 out of 12 cities, residential prices increased week-over-week (median +5%).
  • On a year-over-year basis, 11 cities saw price increases (median +16%).
  • In August, 35 out of 70 cities saw new home prices rise month-over-month, compared to 31 in July.
  • 26 cities saw price drops, compared to 29 in July.
  • On a year-over-year basis, 62 cities saw new home price drops, compared to 67 in July.
  • Shenzhen had a sharp price rise of 31.8% year-over-year.
  • SouFun Holdings secured $400-700 million in funding from PE firms IDG Capital and Carlyle Group.

Hong Kong

• Residential Market:
  • Estimated 415 primary residential units were sold in the week ending Sep 20, up 11% from the prior week's 374 units and 67% above the 3-month average.
  • Secondary market prices increased by +0.1% week-over-week as of Sep 13.
• Commercial Market:
  • The Grade A office vacancy rate decreased from 3.2% in July to 3.0% in August.
  • The Grade A office vacancy rate in Central dropped 0.1 pp to 1.3%.
• Development News:
  • SHKP and Henderson Land received approval to build a temporary retail facility near Lok Ma Chau checkpoint with a lease term of 3 years and GFA of 134,200sf.
  • Poly Property Group won a government tender for a residential plot in Tuen Mun for HK$1.37bn.

Japan

• Residential Market:
  • The contract rate in the greater Tokyo area was 74.3% in August, with a total supply of 2,610 units (+23.7% yoy).
  • Price per unit was ¥58.72mn (+3.3% yoy).
  • Total inventory was 4,895 units (-146 units mom).
  • 2015 standard land prices showed declines in residential (-1%), retail (-0.5%), and industrial (-0.9%) areas.
  • In Tokyo, residential land prices increased by +0.5% yoy, retail by +2.3%, and industrial by +1.8%.
• Development News:
  • Nomura Real Estate HD acquired an additional 30% of NREG Toshiba Building Co. from Toshiba for ¥37bn, bringing its total ownership to 65%.
  • Tokyo Tatemono, Agile, and Shui On Land are on the regional Conviction List.

India

• Residential Market:
  • 495 new private homes were sold in August (-69% mom, +13% yoy).
  • July's sales were skewed by the launch of High Park Residences, which sold 1,139 units.
• Development News:
  • DLF expects rental income from its Mall of India in Noida to rise from Rs24bn to Rs30bn by the end of the financial year.
  • Marina One (mixed-use development, completion in 2017) announced retail anchor tenants including Virgin Active, Cold Storage supermarket, and Cookhouse by Koufu.

Singapore

• Residential Market:
  • 495 new private homes were sold in August (-69% mom, +13% yoy).
• Development News:
  • Ascendas REIT acquired an A$1bn logistics portfolio in Australia, making it the eighth largest industrial landlord in the country.

Upcoming Events

• Hong Kong:
  • Exports, imports, trade balance (24-Sep)
  • New World Dev FY2015 results (24-Sep)
  • New World Dev FY15 NDR breakfast (25-Sep)
• Japan:
  • CPI (24-Sep)
  • Leading Index (28-Sep)
• Singapore:
  • Industrial production (25-Sep)
• China:
  • Leading Index (27-Sep)

Market Performance

Residential Market Snapshot

Commercial Market Snapshot

• Office Rental Value:

  • Hong Kong: Index 175, vs end-12: 4%, Last update: 31-Mar-15, QoQ: +1%.
  • Beijing: Index 297, vs end-12: 35%, Last update: 31-Mar-15, QoQ: -2%.
  • Shanghai: Index 151, vs end-12: 2%, Last update: 31-Mar-15, QoQ: -1%.
  • Guangzhou: Index 154, vs end-12: 2%, Last update: 31-Mar-15, QoQ: -2%.
  • Shenzhen: Index 260, vs end-12: 25%, Last update: 31-Mar-15, QoQ: +4%.
  • Tokyo: Index 92, vs end-12: 1%, Last update: 31-Mar-15, QoQ: +2%.

• Retail Rental Value:

  • Hong Kong: Index 185, vs end-12: 6%, Last update: 31-Dec-14, QoQ: +1%.
  • Beijing: Index 193, vs end-12: 15%, Last update: 31-Dec-14, QoQ: +1%.
  • Shanghai: Index 133, vs end-12: 6%, Last update: 31-Dec-14, QoQ: +2%.
  • Singapore: Index 125, vs end-12: 0%, Last update: 31-Mar-15, QoQ: +0%.

Top Performers and Upside/Downside Potential

Top 5 Performers of the Week

Bottom 5 Performers of the Week

Buy/Sell-Rated Stocks (Mkt Cap > US$2 bn)

Sell-Rated Stocks (Mkt Cap > US$2 bn)

Buy/Sell-Rated Stocks (Mkt Cap < US$2 bn)

Analysts and Contacts

• China Property: Yi Wang, CFA (86) 21-2401-8930; Vicky Li (86) 21-2401-8926; Jill Guan (86) 21-2401-8921
• Hong Kong Property: Anthony Wu (852) 2978-0634; Justin Kwok, CFA (852) 2978-0481; Claire Cheng (852) 2978-0488; Nelson Wang (65) 6654-5463
• Hong Kong Conglomerates: Simon Cheung, CFA (852) 2978-6102; Janet Lu (852) 2978-1642; Alex Ye (852) 2978-6666
• India Property: Puneet Jain (91) 22-6616-9046
• Japan Property: Sachiko Okada (81) 3-6437-9937; Akira Watanabe (81) 3-6437-9819
• Singapore Property: Paul Lian (65) 6889-2464; Jason Yeo (65) 6889-2485

Notes

• Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports, which may create potential conflicts of interest.
• Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making investment decisions.
• For more details on disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Appendix or visit www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.