20150831-高盛-A_glance_at_the_Asia_property_market_11页_285kb

报告摘要

Asia Property Weekly Summary

Core Content

This document provides a comprehensive overview of the Asia property market, including key news updates, market performance, upcoming events, and detailed snapshots of residential and commercial property trends across different regions.

Main Points and Key Information

Key News and Updates

China:
- 16 out of 31 cities with data saw a rise in transaction volumes (median +3% week-on-week), while 12 cities saw flat prices.
- Foreign institutional investors are exempt from registration fees when taking out loans for property and settling FX transactions.
- Local governments in Sichuan province are offering subsidies and relaxed requirements for non-local buyers, particularly in Leshan.
- Vanke has formed a 60/40 joint venture with Homelink to create a home decor company, 'Vanke Lianjia'.
Hong Kong:
- Estimated 228 primary residential units sold in the week ending Aug 30, up 97% from the previous week.
- Secondary market prices increased by 0.4% week-on-week as of Aug 23.
- Swire Prop is considering selling its 555,035sf office project at Kowloon Bay, with market estimates of bid prices reaching HK$8.3bn or HK$15,000psf.
- MTRC is tendering Lohas Park Phase 8 (GFA: 1.044msf) with a land premium of HK$2.955bn or HK$2,830psf.
- New World Development, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery, and Chow Tai Fook Enterprises are jointly developing a high-end shopping complex in Qianhai, Shenzhen, with a total investment of HK$350mn.
Japan:
- MLIT proposed a 2-year extension of fixed asset tax reduction for new housing and other property tax breaks.
- Residential prices in June showed mixed performance, with Tokyo rising slightly and Chiba and Saitama declining.
- Used house prices in major cities like Tokyo, Osaka, and Chiba increased, with Tokyo seeing a 1.9% month-on-month rise.
India:
- Private equity investments in India real estate from Jan to Jun reached Rs.110bn, the highest since 2008.
- Singapore's parliament was dissolved on Aug 25, with general elections scheduled for Sep 11.
Singapore:
- Norway's sovereign fund, CapitaLand, and Keppel Land are among the bidders for Asia Square Tower 1, valued at over S$3.5bn.
- Jones Lang LaSalle is marketing Funan DigitalaLife Mall for sale by expression of interest.

Market Performance

Residential Market Performance (Week-on-Week)

Region	Price Change	Volume Change
China (offshore)	+9%	+3%
China (on-shore)	-3%	-9%
Hong Kong	-3%	+97%
India Developers	-2%	+3%
Japan Developers	-5%	-3%
Singapore Developers	-3%	+26%

Top 5 and Bottom 5 Performers of the Week

Top 5:

KRW Gp. (+8% 1-wk, -13% 1-mo)
GE Healthcare Trust (+7% 1-wk, -10% 1-mo)
MapleTree Industrial Trust (+7% 1-wk, +1% 1-mo)
Yanold Land (+6% 1-wk, +11% 1-mo)

Bottom 5:

Sunuc (-22% 1-wk, -37% 1-mo)
Housing Dev. & Infra. (-17% 1-wk, -24% 1-mo)
OCT (-12% 1-wk, -1% 1-mo)
Poly (HK) (-12% 1-wk, -25% 1-mo)
Japan Retail Fund (-10% 1-wk, -9% 1-mo)

Buy/Sell-Rated Stocks and Their Potential

Buy-Rated Stocks (Market Cap > US$2 bn):

Ailie (+141% upside)
Sights On Land (+135% upside)
Country Garden (+110% upside)
KWG Prop. (+100% upside)
Hang Lung Prop. (+66% upside)

Sell-Rated Stocks (Market Cap > US$2 bn):

Champion REIT (-13% downside)
Gemdale Corp. (-8% downside)
Evergreenia (-7% downside)
Suntec REIT (-9% downside)

Buy-Rated Stocks (Market Cap < US$2 bn):

Sobha Developers (+81% upside)
Oberoi Realty (+79% upside)
Prestige Estate (+72% upside)
Yanlord Land (+57% upside)
Home Inn (+16% upside)

Upcoming Events

Date	Market	Event
31-Aug	China	Leading Index
31-Aug	India	GDP
1-Sep	China	Manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI
1-Sep	India	Nikkei India PMI
7-Sep	Japan	Leading index, coincident index
10-Sep	Hong Kong	SHKP FY15 results
11-Sep	Hong Kong	SHKP post-results group breakfast in GS office

Key Research for the Week

Japan: MLIT proposed a 2-year extension of tax breaks for new housing and renovation.
KWG Property Holding (1813.HK): Performed in line with expectations, showing prudent operations.
Shimao Property (0813.HK): Met expectations on both margin and financial position.
Shui On Land (0272.HK): Surpassed expectations in disposal gain and operational recovery.
Agile Property Holdings (3383.HK): Below expectations on margin, with monetization of non-core assets as a key focus.
Shangri-La Asia (0069.HK): Exceeded expectations on cost savings but had soft RevPAR.
Sino Land (0083.HK): Met expectations with land banking as the main focus.
Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties (3699.HK): Showing a small step toward executing a light asset model.
Franshion Properties (China) (0817.HK): Met expectations with a softening margin trend.
Cheung Kong Property Holdings (1113.HK): In line with expectations, maintaining fast asset turnover.
Poly Property Group (0119.HK): Below expectations with weak turnaround efforts and lower TP.
Poly Real Estate Group (600048.SS): Exceeded expectations on margins, with a recovering balance sheet.

Market Analysis and Insights

Market Cap Weighted Performance:
- China (off-shore): +9% 1-wk, -11% 1-mo, -27% 3-mo, -8% 6-mo
- China (on-shore): -3% 1-wk, -9% 1-mo, -19% 3-mo, 0% 6-mo
- Hong Kong: -3% 1-wk, -14% 1-mo, -21% 3-mo, -15% 6-mo
- India Developers: -2% 1-wk, +3% 1-mo, -14% 3-mo, -26% 6-mo
- Japan Developers: -5% 1-wk, -3% 1-mo, -8% 3-mo, -2% 6-mo
- Japan REITs: -4% 1-wk, -5% 1-mo, -11% 3-mo, -13% 6-mo
- Singapore Developers: -3% 1-wk, -11% 1-mo, -17% 3-mo, -18% 6-mo
Dividend Yield and P/E Ratio:
- China (off-shore): 4.6% dividend yield, 8.3 P/E
- China (on-shore): 2.4% dividend yield, 9.2 P/E
- Hong Kong: 3.6% dividend yield, 13.1 P/E
- India Developers: 1.2% dividend yield, 25.9 P/E
- Japan Developers: 0.6% dividend yield, 29.0 P/E
- Japan REITs: 3.4% dividend yield, 24.4 P/E
- Singapore Developers: 2.6% dividend yield, 15.9 P/E
Price Performance and NAV Change:
- China (off-shore): +9% 1-wk, -11% 1-mo, -27% 3-mo, -8% 6-mo, -49% Fwd. NAV
- China (on-shore): -3% 1-wk, -9% 1-mo, -19% 3-mo, 0% 6-mo, -29% Fwd. NAV
- Hong Kong: -3% 1-wk, -14% 1-mo, -21% 3-mo, -15% 6-mo, -45% Fwd. NAV
- India Developers: -2% 1-wk, +3% 1-mo, -14% 3-mo, -26% 6-mo, -53% Fwd. NAV
- Japan Developers: -5% 1-wk, -3% 1-mo, -8% 3-mo, -2% 6-mo, -19% Fwd. NAV
- Japan REITs: -4% 1-wk, -5% 1-mo, -11% 3-mo, -13% 6-mo, -50% Fwd. NAV
- Singapore Developers: -3% 1-wk, -11% 1-mo, -17% 3-mo, -18% 6-mo, -46% Fwd. NAV

Disclosure

Goldman Sachs has a potential conflict of interest due to its business relationships with companies covered in its reports.
This report is intended as a single factor in investment decisions.
For full disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Appendix or visit www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.